10 Points

[Sam]

I was thinking about what the "magic number" of points will be, and if you look at it from the Honduras perspective I'd be really surprised if 10 doesn't get us through.

We have to think that Cuba has enough in them, especially playing in the afternoon at home again, that they can take at least a point out of Honduras from the two game set. That would leave Honduras on a max of five points. If they have five points going into the last two games they will need to win in Panama and at home against us to surpass 10.

On the flip side of course to get 10 we only need home wins against Cuba and Panama (no easy feat, especially the Panama game, but still very achievable).

Now even if we assume Honduras does take the full 6 off Cuba, but we still take at least 3 off Panama (and I don't think 4 with getting a result in Panama) is out of the question. That leaves us tied going into the final two matches. We obviously play each other on the final match day in Honduras, but if we compare matches they have arguably the toughest match of the group away to Panama, and we have without a doubt the easiest at home to Cuba. So if we win and Honduras loses, that even means we could get through the group with a loss in Honduras and advance on GD or something. But one thing we've learned about this Canadian team over the past few weeks. When we don't want to concede, we don't. If someone offered me a chance right now to be going into the last game in Honduras with the chance that a draw takes us through, I'd take that without a question.

So really if we win our next two home games.... we're looking very good to advance to the hex.

[Robert]

4 years hence, and it's the same old song and dance all over again.  My prediction is: If we get beat 7-1 in Honduras, Mount Vic will claim that we are making progress.

[Sam]

I was thinking about what the "magic number" of points will be, and if you look at it from the Honduras perspective I'd be really surprised if 10 doesn't get us through.

 

We have to think that Cuba has enough in them, especially playing in the afternoon at home again, that they can take at least a point out of Honduras from the two game set. That would leave Honduras on a max of five points. If they have five points going into the last two games they will need to win in Panama and at home against us to surpass 10.

 

On the flip side of course to get 10 we only need home wins against Cuba and Panama (no easy feat, especially the Panama game, but still very achievable).

 

Now even if we assume Honduras does take the full 6 off Cuba, but we still take at least 3 off Panama (and I don't think 4 with getting a result in Panama) is out of the question. That leaves us tied going into the final two matches. We obviously play each other on the final match day in Honduras, but if we compare matches they have arguably the toughest match of the group away to Panama, and we have without a doubt the easiest at home to Cuba. So if we win and Honduras loses, that even means we could get through the group with a loss in Honduras and advance on GD or something. But one thing we've learned about this Canadian team over the past few weeks. When we don't want to concede, we don't. If someone offered me a chance right now to be going into the last game in Honduras with the chance that a draw takes us through, I'd take that without a question.

 

So really if we win our next two home games.... we're looking very good to advance to the hex.

Oh god. Was I ever wrong. 

[Soccerpro]

Horribly wrong 

[rob.notenboom]

Oh god. Was I ever wrong. 

I recall Cuba almost got a last gasp equalizer against either Panama or Honduras that (like beating Honduras at home) would have seen us through. 

[hamiltonfan]

6 Points off El Salvador (2-0-0)

3 Points off Honduras  (1-0-1)

0-1 points off Mexico (0-1-1, 0-0-2)

.....think 9 points would put us through? Not if Honduras beats Mexico or takes points from us in game 1.

We need six points coming out of our first two games.  

[king1010]

6 Points off El Salvador (2-0-0)

3 Points off Honduras  (1-0-1)

0-1 points off Mexico (0-1-1, 0-0-2)

.....think 9 points would put us through? Not if Honduras beats Mexico or takes points from us in game 1.

We need six points coming out of our first two games.  

6 points would be awesome. But i dont think its a must. 

IMO what we NEED is 4 points minimum. Win at home. Draw on the road. 

[gkhs]

I was just thinking today about how unlikely it was that we missed the hex on points, despite having had 10.

Statistically (on spreadsheet, not real world), about 93% of teams on 10 points would get through without needing to hold a tie breaker. A further 6% would get into some sort of tie breaker situation.

So, in theory, its less than a 1% proposition to miss out on points (not tiebreakers) if you get to ten.

In qualifying, it has happened once before in the hex era - Honduras 98 qualifying.

It can only happen when the fourth place team is a disaster - if your fourth place finisher gets to 2 points, it is impossible to miss out on points with 10.

We had Cuba, Honduras had Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

In the real world, plenty of 10-point teams have missed out; owing to the fact that CONCACAF doesn't have 12 decent teams, so pretty bad fourth place teams are common.

[hamiltonfan]

6 points would be awesome. But i dont think its a must. 

IMO what we NEED is 4 points minimum. Win at home. Draw on the road. 

If we don't take 6 points off El Salvador, I don't see us going through.

If we don't beat Honduras in game 1, slim chance we go through....will likely end up with 8 pts at best, likely 7.

We shouldn't bank on taking any points from Mexico, best case scenario we draw at home. 

 

 

having said that...confident we will go through : )

[1zzurri]

I see us grabbing 10 points. This is our time guys and girls. Let the games begin. 3 wins 1 ties 2 losses 

[Bully]

Hopefully we can go into central american with confidence. Get those results boys!! 

We should be able to beat El Salvador home and away. If we can't do that, I'm not sure we deserve to be in a World Cup. I'm sure we can do it. 

Win against a weak Honduras side at home (Don't let us down, crush them. Have that killer instinct)
Win both a against El Salvador 

Then we have 3 other games to get 1 point. 
 

[Guest]

I was just thinking today about how unlikely it was that we missed the hex on points, despite having had 10.

Statistically (on spreadsheet, not real world), about 93% of teams on 10 points would get through without needing to hold a tie breaker. A further 6% would get into some sort of tie breaker situation.

So, in theory, its less than a 1% proposition to miss out on points (not tiebreakers) if you get to ten.

In qualifying, it has happened once before in the hex era - Honduras 98 qualifying.

It can only happen when the fourth place team is a disaster - if your fourth place finisher gets to 2 points, it is impossible to miss out on points with 10.

We had Cuba, Honduras had Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

In the real world, plenty of 10-point teams have missed out; owing to the fact that CONCACAF doesn't have 12 decent teams, so pretty bad fourth place teams are common.

Thats going to be St. Vincent and the Grenadines this year too. I don't think they will get a single point in that group.