Robert Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 Based on the results of every CONCACAF semifinal group over the past four World Cup tournaments it usually takes 10 points to qualify for the Hex. On three occasions, JAMAICA (2010), GUATEMALA (2002) and HONDURAS (1998) it turned out that 10 points were not enough. Only once did a country qualify for the Hex with less than 10 points, PANAMA (2006). 2010 USA – 15 T&T – 11 GUATEMALA – 5 CUBA – 3 HONDURAS – 12 MEXICO – 10 JAMAICA – 10 CANADA – 2 COSTA RICA – 18 EL SALVADOR – 10 HAITI – 3 SURINAME – 2 2006 USA – 12 PANAMA – 8 JAMAICA – 7 EL SALVADOR – 4 COSTA RICA – 10 GUATEMALA – 10 HONDURAS – 7 CANADA – 5 MEXICO – 18 T&T – 12 ST. VINCENT – 6 ST. KITTS – 0 2002 T&T – 15 MEXICO – 13 CANADA – 5 PANAMA – 1 HONDURAS – 15 JAMAICA – 12 EL SALVADOR – 9 ST. VINCENT – 0 USA – 11 COSTA RICA – 10 GUATEMALA – 10 BARBADOS – 3 1998 USA – 13 COSTA RICA – 12 GUATEMALA – 8 T&T – 1 CANADA – 16 ELSALVADOR – 10 PANAMA – 5 CUBA – 3 JAMAICA – 13 MEXICO – 12 HONDURAS – 10 ST. VINCENT – 0 Point #1 – In order to earn 10 points from six matches, CANADA will have to win three of its matches and gain a draw from another. Point #2 – The most likely way to achieve these results would be to win three matches in the friendly confines of Toronto and gain a draw in one of the three piss-bag throwing hostile environs. Point #3 – A draw in our first match in CUBA would therefore achieve the much-needed away result. Point #4 – Failure to win our first home match against HONDURAS would force us to win one of the two remaining piss-bag throwing hostile environ matches. If we are unable to beat HONDURAS in friendly Toronto, it is unlikely that we are going to beat them in piss-bag throwing hostile Tegucigalpa, which means we would have to beat PANAMA in piss-bag throwing hostile Panama City. Point #5 – A win in Havana and a draw against HONDURAS in Toronto would leave us needing to win our two remaining home matches to qualify for the Hex. Point #6 – Beating HONDURAS in Toronto would keep our main opponent honest in their four remaining matches, as they will still need to earn seven more points to reach their qualifying mark. This also avoids the possibility of HONDURAS throwing one of their final matches (at the expense of Canada) because they have already qualified for the Hex with one or two matches left to play. Point #7 – Winning our first two matches would leave us in control of our own destiny. We would not have to watch the out-of-town scoreboard all the time, anxiously calculating every possible outcome to see how we could still qualify. Point #8 – By winning our first two matches, we would begin to break free from the shackles of the loser’s image that Canadian soccer has been perceived with for so long by players, supporters and outside observers alike. Point #9 – I think most of us agree that it is high time the CSA shows everyone that it has now become a professional governing body. Victor and Peter need to show Canadians that they have done their homework. After all, this is the World Cup and we’re letting you two Italians show us what you can do! The opponents and dates for these fixtures have been known for many months. So make sure that you fill the stadium. On Monday give away any unsold tickets to local school kids and also give them a Canadian flag to wave. For countless reasons it is imperative that this contest looks like it is being played in Canada! The Honduran supporters should have been separated and spread throughout the stadium, preferably out of sight and in the nosebleed sections. By thinning out their presence and surrounding them with red-clad Canadian supporters, they will not be as noticeable or able to make as much noise. If they try, they will be quickly drowned out by the pro-Canadian crowd. We do not have to turn into a bunch of piss-bag throwing hooligans, but the CSA has to quit doing things like putting on steel-drum entertainment at halftime when we are playing a Caribbean opponent. Point #10 – If, God forbid, we have a bad day against HONDURAS, on Tuesday, the CSA has to own up and take responsibility. Blaming referees or firing coaches just doesn’t cut it anymore. The CSA can not continue to use the same lame excuses for 16 years in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoalieGrey Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 I expect us to take at least 4 points from these first two matches. 6 is certainly attainable if we play well. They are two tricky matchups: - away to Cuba, who, despite their lower ranking, are a huge unknown, and are at home - home to Honduras, who tend to give us fits, and I'm sure there will be plenty of Honduran support at BMO, no matter how hard we try to pretend there won't be. I agree that if we can win our first two matchups, we will control our own destiny...win our home matches after that, and we should be free and clear. If we take 3 (or fewer) points, it's going to be a very interesting and stressful fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killgod Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 6/9 10pts get through. 66% chance you get through with 10pts. Go for more. edit 11pts gets through 100% of the time. Do that instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Califax Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 Point #7 – Winning our first two matches would leave us in control of our own destiny. We would not have to watch the out-of-town scoreboard all the time, anxiously calculating every possible outcome to see how we could still qualify. God forbid if this happens. What the hell would we talk about on this forum instead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimmyJames Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 Protect home turf....win in Cuba then win our home games...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rob.notenboom Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThiKu Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 10 pts should do. This is a very tight group so 9 pts could be enough, 8 pts could be a tie-breaker situation. Cuba won't go 0-0-6, and we all just hope it's us who gets 2 wins v. Cuba and not either of Pan/Hon. minimum 4 pts v. Cuba, plus 6 pts v. Pan/Hon and we should qualify. 6 pts v. Cuba, plus 5-7 pts v. Hon/Pan and we're through as well. Not easy, but certainly attainable. The big question - what if Canada, Panama, and Honduras draw all their games v. each other. Could very well happen. Then it comes down to goal difference v. Cuba. Tricky tricky group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strobe_z Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 Can someone explain to me how we can secure a coin-toss or lot-drawing scenario? Those are the ones we REALLY kick butt at... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dyslexic nam Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 6 games. 3 points available per game. 18 points puts us through. Done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Beaver Posted June 4, 2012 Share Posted June 4, 2012 Can someone explain to me how we can secure a coin-toss or lot-drawing scenario? Those are the ones we REALLY kick butt at... Ha!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CanadianSoccerFan Posted June 5, 2012 Share Posted June 5, 2012 Depends how Cuba does. In last year's CONCACAF Champions League Alajuelense got 12 points and did NOT advance because the bottom team (Motagua) lost to everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canada1 Posted June 5, 2012 Share Posted June 5, 2012 All matches are winable, however, I agree that away at Panama and Honduras will be the tough ones due to the warm welcome mat they usually layout for us. That being said, it's not like we don't know what to expect. So it's time to get over it and find away to be successful in these unfriendly attmospheres. Time for Canada to qualify for the HEX one match at a time. It is a must that we get 3pts this Friday against Cuba and put this country in the right direction to qualify for the HEX. Anything less is not good enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ditty Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 For whatever reason, I think this Canadian team will do alright away from home. I see us taking 4 pts on the road, starting with 3 on Friday. The bigger ask will be 6 pts at home. Traditionally, this is what seems to kill us; we lose our first game at home and we're behind the 8 ball from the get go. I honestly think that starting away will be good for this group. Yes, a win is vital but say we start at home and lose, and suddenly even a point in the next game away is still leaving an uphill battle. We win in Cuba and it's not all doom and gloom if we only draw Honduras at home. A loss turns the screw a little, but even that isn't devastating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lattes Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 I think we see 15-16 Win Cuba away Win all 3 home Win Panama away Draw/lose Hon, away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strobe_z Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 That might be pushing the boundaries of reality there... Since this wouldn't be Canadian WCQ without trying to figure out what the optimal results between the OTHER teams are... who else should I be cheering for on Friday? Is it possible for both Panama and Honduras to lose? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theaub Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 Panama or a draw seem like the best options. With the draw, you obviously get the least amount of points distributed, and with a Panama win you hope Honduras tanks a bit up here and that if Panama can take a result against them at home it helps our chances of coming top two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
closetboostie Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 That might be pushing the boundaries of reality there... Since this wouldn't be Canadian WCQ without trying to figure out what the optimal results between the OTHER teams are... who else should I be cheering for on Friday? Is it possible for both Panama and Honduras to lose? I'm hoping every match we don't participate in is a draw at this point. Too early to know who will be the biggest threat against us. Isn't it fun though! I'm afraid the other groups don't pose much in the way of unforeseen excitement but we can hope for someone to drop off. Jamaica! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpg75 Posted June 6, 2012 Share Posted June 6, 2012 You always want a draw in the other match, unless Cuba is involved, then we want Cuba to win - but not too many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maplebanana Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 That might be pushing the boundaries of reality there... Since this wouldn't be Canadian WCQ without trying to figure out what the optimal results between the OTHER teams are... who else should I be cheering for on Friday? Is it possible for both Panama and Honduras to lose? I'm hoping for a 0-0 draw in Honduras/Panama, and Guatemala thrashing Jamaica 5-0 with Hoilett in attendance. A man can dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villus Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Getting 6 points from these first 2 games would be huge, not just mathematically but for the program and all the guys it would really give us some momentum. That said we need to play with urgency in both games, we need to play like each game is a one game playoff and bring intensity and learn to up our level in games that count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpg75 Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 Getting 6 points from these first 2 games would be huge, not just mathematically but for the program and all the guys it would really give us some momentum. That said we need to play with urgency in both games, we need to play like each game is a one game playoff and bring intensity and learn to up our level in games that count. QFT. I'm thinking 6 points in these next games is almost mandatory and 12 points for the round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Free kick Posted June 7, 2012 Share Posted June 7, 2012 The last game of this round will be in Honduras. We need to be in a position whereby the outcome of that game does not determine if we advance or not. Also, based on past performances from Cuba, it is very conceivable that they will be the very bottom feeder and that other sides like Honduras and Panama (or at least one on them will) can get maximum point against them. and we know that as the competition advances desent and defections can be a possibility. Therefore in order for the final game to be meaningless and given the likely hood that Cuba will weaken as the competition wares on, it is indeed almost mandatory to get six point in these first two games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robert Posted June 14, 2012 Author Share Posted June 14, 2012 4 points in the bag and 6 more to go. So far, your analysis is holding up pretty good. Both remaining home games have now become must win situations, because I don't see us getting another 3 points in our two remaining road fixtures. The Panama match in Toronto has now become the do or die contest! For whatever reason, I think this Canadian team will do alright away from home. I see us taking 4 pts on the road, starting with 3 on Friday. The bigger ask will be 6 pts at home. Traditionally, this is what seems to kill us; we lose our first game at home and we're behind the 8 ball from the get go. I honestly think that starting away will be good for this group. Yes, a win is vital but say we start at home and lose, and suddenly even a point in the next game away is still leaving an uphill battle. We win in Cuba and it's not all doom and gloom if we only draw Honduras at home. A loss turns the screw a little, but even that isn't devastating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guppy Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 Interesting.. ok here's the possibilities, assuming they must get 10, and preferably 11 +. It all depends on how pts they get from Panama. They get only 1 pt from Panama -- the situation I fear. that means they must win in Honduras and beat Cuba.. that would give them 11 They get 2 pts from Panama -- this is another tight feeling in the chest one, because a draw with H and win C and that's 10.. Canada's lack of scoring favors draw results so this could be the scenario .. They get 3, win and loss .. -- another likely scenario and shows how important at least one win against Panama is .. this means a loss to H and win C gives them 10 .. Draw H and that's 11. They get 4 from Panama -- loss to H and win C gives them 11 6 -- well then they already have 10 and draw or win anywhere puts them 11 or more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theaub Posted June 14, 2012 Share Posted June 14, 2012 I don't see any change from what I thought at the start. 7 points in the next three games, and hopefully Honduras drops points somewhere (which seems probable) and that last match means nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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