Article in today Globe and mail - A must read

[Gordon]

quote:Originally posted by G-Man

G-L

come on- give us your average attendance...

I think he has...

quote:Originally posted by Gian-Luca

For the record, what do I think they'll average? I'd speculate around 10,000 per game and maybe upwards of 12,000 if the team is very competitive because we all know that T.O. loves a winner. But attendance numbers can be boosted (as has been seen in MLS) by doubleheaders and other cross-promotions. So if MLSE brings in Italy to play Canada and sells 20,000 tickets are part of a double-dip with Toronto MLS, that will count as part of the MLS team's average.

[Andrew W]

quote:Originally posted by Gordon

I think he has...

Umm, that's my quote, not GL's .

[Andrew W]

quote:Originally posted by G-Man

Again-- If Major in MLS means Major to the USL. I'll bend. But if you mean Major as in comparision to MLB or the NFL, I don't think so.

So this is what you're hung up on!

Nobody here, there or anywhere has ever, ever compared MLS in terms of its broad appeal to MLB, the NFL, NBA, NASCAR or even the NHL.

This doesn't mean it isn't or can't be successful in Toronto or anywhere else. If this is the bar you're going to measure it against any debate with you is futile.

Plus, your constantly shifting your debate points. MLS clubs are building stadiums to get into appropriately sized venues where they control the revenues and thus expenses. These facilities are averaging around 20,000 seats which shows many that MLS knows exactly where it fits in terms of appeal and growth potential. They are not trying to compete with the big sports despite some lip service to that effect (for dramatic purposes). Really, I think they know exactly where they fit.

[Andrew W]

quote:Originally posted by Gordon

15,000-17,000 in the first season or MLS Toronto is a bust.

I don't agree, especially when Peddie himself in a recent interview with Cathal Kelly of the Toronto Star that they expect to draw closer to 10,000 per game.

Initially, Maple Leaf Sports is hoping to draw crowds in the "low teens" to 16 home games in its 20,000-seat stadium.

I think this shows smart, cautious expectation on behalf of MLSE.

[RealGooner]

Maybe G-Man is really a secret agent working for MLSE. By taunting and provoking supporters of MLS in Canada, he hopes to spur a reaction out of us - to make us defensive and protective of our new stadium and team. To make us want to go to games and support Toronto MLS, just to prove him wrong. These Leafs are crafty chaps you know....

[Gian-Luca]

quote:Originally posted by G-Man

Again-- If Major in MLS means Major to the USL. I'll bend. But if you mean Major as in comparision to MLB or the NFL, I don't think so.

Another straw man. Nobody has ever said MLS was at the same level as MLB or the NFL. Of course they mean major in comparison to the minor-league soccer (as it is by and large perceived to be in North America) of the USL. You can keep conjuring up statistics all you like with comparisons to the three big leagues in the US - all you will be doing is putting together another straw man to beat up.

quote:

And with the MLS/USL knowledge debate in Toronto, it's like Carolina- those good folks would have no clue if shown a NHL game and a AHL and asked which is which.

So you keep saying. Those of us in the Toronto area who are very familiar with how many people are aware of the Lynx and the reactions of the people who are aware of the Lynx believe and know differently, and we are basing our beliefs on our own experiences, rather than pie-in-the-sky speculation. You only need to see how many more people on this forum alone are more interested at the prospect at the MLS in Toronto vs. another Lynx season at Centennial to see the effect that we believe this can have. You can keep trying to make this statement over and over again, or just agree to disagree. The latter is wonderful concept, you should give it a try one day.

quote:

I'm hoping that MLSE has more coin to promote soccer than the Hartwells have.

As long as the MLSE has one coin it will be more money to promote soccer than the Hartrells have. This is about the tenth time I've pointed this out to you, and I'm not the only one to have done so. Because you keep saying the same thing over and over again.

quote:

And if they can't do it- no one can. What then?

Then we are no worse off than we were before without trying to go the major league. What is the alternative? To not try? To dream about a non-existent Canadian league at the USL level even though two teams at that level in Alberta just recently folded and one plays in total anonymity in Canada's largest city in a bush-league facility located miles from the city centre?

Perhaps you prefer the status quo? No place to play national team games in Toronto, no place for Canadian soccer players to aspire to earn a decent living as a full-time player in Canada? No expansion of the talent pool to allow us a better chance at qualifying for the World Cup?

quote:

G-L

come on- give us your average attendance...

You tell us what legitimate objective you are trying to achieve with these relentless points that say nothing new, who you are hoping to convince, and maybe I'll consider making a guess. I'm capping it at 20,000 though.

[Gian-Luca]

quote:Originally posted by Andrew W

Nobody here, there or anywhere has ever, ever compared MLS in terms of its broad appeal to MLB, the NFL, NBA, NASCAR or even the NHL.

More saliently, to the CFL either. In fact in this article that started this thread, which just about all of us pro-MLS'ers agree with wholeheartedly, Brunt made the point that the Toronto MLS team just needs to pull in the crowds of a poorly-attendend Argo to make it work. This point, that nobody was even viewing the MLS as being as major league as these other major league sports was obvious yet subsequently ignored by G-Man who seemingly just wanted something he could get some criteria to score cheap points off of (not that he did), even though no-one was playing the game he was trying to score points in.

[RS]

I'll enter the crackhead pool.

Put me down for a 14,000 avg.

[RealGooner]

I'll go with 14000 as well.

[River City]

The Crackhead Pool

7,700 - G-Man

9,567 - River City

11,000 - Andrew W

14,000 - Rudi

14,000 - RealGooner

16,000 - Gordon

[Gordon]

quote:Originally posted by Andrew W

I don't agree, especially when Peddie himself in a recent interview with Cathal Kelly of the Toronto Star that they expect to draw closer to 10,000 per game.

Initially, Maple Leaf Sports is hoping to draw crowds in the "low teens" to 16 home games in its 20,000-seat stadium.

I think this shows smart, cautious expectation on behalf of MLSE.

I don't agree, and in fact it only lends credence to my suspicion that MLSE is in this only for the stadium. Because, if they have done their homework, they would know:

MLS soccer crowds do not grow, they shrink, and with luck settle in at a number that the club can operate at. The first year is the best, especially as there is not the construction of a SSS to address all the stadium issues. And,

MLS Clubs drawing at and around 10,000 are contracted or moved. See Kenn.com for the evidence. Now I honestly think that the median for attendance will be in and around 12,000, and that the remainder will be made up by one or two double headers drawing 50,000+ to Skydome, and the season opener, which will be at or near a sell out.

I do not believe that MLSE will operate the club long if they average 10-12,000 in year one. Because its gonna be their best year for attendance in the medium run at least.

[Gordon]

quote:Originally posted by Andrew W

Umm, that's my quote, not GL's .

Why so it is. I stand corrected.

[TOareaFan]

quote:Originally posted by Gian-Luca

More saliently, to the CFL either. In fact in this article that started this thread, which just about all of us pro-MLS'ers agree with wholeheartedly, Brunt made the point that the Toronto MLS team just needs to pull in the crowds of a poorly-attendend Argo to make it work.

Let's hope not! The lowest attendance at an Argo game this year was 24,637 and even last year it was 22,429! If that is what is needed, they better re-think the size of the stadium! Even outside of Toronto the lowest attendance last year was 20,202 (a sell out in Montreal). This year there was a crowd, or two, in Ottawa that was around 16k....I would think that would make MLS and MLSE very, very happy.

quote:

This point, that nobody was even viewing the MLS as being as major league as these other major league sports was obvious yet subsequently ignored by G-Man who seemingly just wanted something he could get some criteria to score cheap points off of (not that he did), even though no-one was playing the game he was trying to score points in.

The whole issue of Major League versus Minor League is probably more crucial in Toronto than most cities. We have, simply put, shown great disdain for anything that is not "major" league in any</u> sport.

Before the Raptors came to town we had the Toronto Towers of the CBA...does anyone remember sitting in mostly empty Varsity Arena watching Ted Stepian's toy go bankrupt....I do!

Before the Jays, there had been an 11 or 12 year gap since the last effort to sell minor league baseball had ended here! (that pre-dated even me in this town).

The Argos are thrilled to now be averaging around 30,000 per game but does anyone think that any of The Rogers Centre's 54,000 seats would be empty on any game day (at likely 3 or 4 times the price) if it was NFL football being played there.

Even hockey, that sport which we believe is the equivalent to a religion in Canada, has great difficulty selling any great amount of tickets to any game that is not the NHL. The Road Runners died and the Marlies, playing in a brand new, taxpayer funded, arena in the same location as our new SSS, are doing no better than 10th in the league in attendance (averaging 5,921 fans) even though 2 of their 6 games have been against near rival Hamilton!

The success or failure of MLS in Toronto hinges entirely on this question. Will the league/game/team be viewed as "major" because it is the best available product in the country/continent or will it be "minor" league because it pales in comparison, in the eye of the "educated" Toronto soccer fans, to EPL/La Liga/Serie A/Bundesliga?

History tells me that, unfortunately, it will be the latter. I am anxious to be proven wrong but, I fear, I will have a long wait.

[DoyleG]

9,000/game

[Michael Crampton]

quote:Originally posted by G-Man

"In fact, as economists Dennis Coates and Brad R. Humphreys note in a recent Cato Institute paper, there's evidence that sports stadiums can hurt local economies. Looking at the economic performance of 37 cities between 1969 and 1996, they found "the presense of pro sports teams had a statistically significant negative impact on the level of real per capita income."

Ouch.

Just wanted to point out two things:

1) I wouldn't trust very much out of the Cato Institue. They're a bunch of right-wing hacks who oppose any and all government spending.

2) Having not read the study I'd like see their methodology. It seems obvious to me that between '69 and '96 the great economic shift in the US has been away from the industrial northeast and upper mid-west towards the south and west. Interestingly it is exactly the areas that have declined are the traditional homes of most sports franchises while (not surprisingly) the areas that have been economically vibrant are disproportionally gaining new ones. Just because certain areas are declining doesn't mean that the existence of pro-sports had any influence on that decline. As they say: correlation is not causality. Just because there is a high correlation between the spotting of fire trucks at a house and it being on fire doesn't mean that fire trucks cause house fires. What seems most likely is that the existence of pro-sports teamns is a lagging indicator of economic success rather than a contributing or hindering factor.

Mike.

[Andrew W]

quote:Originally posted by TOareaFan

Will the league/game/team be viewed as "major" because it is the best available product in the country/continent or will it be "minor" league because it pales in comparison, in the eye of the "educated" Toronto soccer fans, to EPL/La Liga/Serie A/Bundesliga?

That's why I think it's important for the team not to cater to Eurosnobs. Don't worry about trying to convert the uncovertable. They have to go for that "soft" sports-fan market that is looking for an enjoyable night out at the park and has some money to spend. I think there may be a market to be had that is a combination of 1) Canadian soccer fans like yourself and others on this board; 2) Soccer fans in general who just want to get out to the park with some decent soccer on display; 3) Toronto boosters who will gravitate to the team if they are successful on the pitch and 4) Curiosity seekers who get hooked on either the atmosphere (this is where a rabid but civilized supporters section comes in) or the game. Obviously they'll try the soccer-mom route as well, but I think they'd be remiss to rely on that group other than for nights when they have fireworks or other special promotions.

If MLS has one strength, it seems to have for the most part brushed aside the overt need to be accepted by European commentators and fans. They do, however, seem more concerned with capturing fans from Latin American backgrounds. Sure there are some cross-promotions with European sides, but that has more to do with Adidas and other sponsorship concerns.

If Toronto MLS were to cater (and I'd suggest they do not) I'd suggest they head in the direction of luring Central American, Caribbean and Middle Eastern soccer fans who aren't necessarily going to be used to or reliant on a more highbrow level of soccer, yet may also gravitate to a well known player or two from the homeland(not some fifth division schmuck, a la the Lynx). If Toronto were to bring in a well known Iranian international or two (if that were possible) I'd suggest that may play better in their community than if a couple of EPL burnouts were brought in to pander to the UK crowd. Yet, I'm sure the lure will be hard to resist.

Still, I agree that it won't be easy and I have yet to see anything from MLSE where they seem to indicate that it will be easy.

[TOareaFan]

quote:Originally posted by Andrew W

That's why I think it's important for the team not to cater to Eurosnobs.

Interesting viewpoints....incredible, though, how so much can be said in a short sentence.

Not everyone who goes to a Leaf, Jay, Raptor or Argo game is going for the same reason but the game seems to be the focal point for many different types getting together for different reasons (hard core fans, corporate types, stats junkies, attention seekers, etc) but only soccer seems to have to pick which fans they are marketing to!

Probably not what you were intending with your post but an interesting discussion point. Why can't the ex-glaswegian sit beside the soccer mom and her kids on one side and the 4 fifth generation kids from Woodbridge on the other??

I have no answer but it never seems to happen.

[Andrew W]

quote:Originally posted by TOareaFan

Interesting viewpoints....incredible, though, how so much can be said in a short sentence.

Not everyone who goes to a Leaf, Jay, Raptor or Argo game is going for the same reason but the game seems to be the focal point for many different types getting together for different reasons (hard core fans, corporate types, stats junkies, attention seekers, etc) but only soccer seems to have to pick which fans they are marketing to!

Probably not what you were intending with your post but an interesting discussion point. Why can't the ex-glaswegian sit beside the soccer mom and her kids on one side and the 4 fifth generation kids from Woodbridge on the other??

I have no answer but it never seems to happen.

Well, to be fair to MLS, I think it's a damned if they do damned if they don't type of scenario. I do think they'd be safer to simply say "this is what it is; support it as Toronto's team" not a substitute for old Harrumph United City Athletic where they serve warm guiness and meat pies.

I don't mean that to sound cynical but I do believe the old country Euro market is where you'll likely never measure up no matter what you do.

I too, don't have the answer, otherwise I belive we'd be in business together consulting to all these clubs.

[Gian-Luca]

quote:Originally posted by TOareaFan

Let's hope not! The lowest attendance at an Argo game this year was 24,637 and even last year it was 22,429!

If you read the article at the start of this thread, it is clear Brunt is referring to bad Argo games of past seasons with his 15,000 comment.

quote:

The whole issue of Major League versus Minor League is probably more crucial in Toronto than most cities. We have, simply put, shown great disdain for anything that is not "major" league in any</u> sport.

Exactly. But just because the MLS won't be as huge as the NHL, MLB, etc. doesn't mean that it won't be viewed as being a "major league" - that is already the perception of most people I've spoken to who have heard about Toronto getting a pro soccer team for the first time since the days of the NASL Blizzard (for that is how they perceive things).

The NASL Blizzard was viewed as being major league, even though the very same soccer leagues you mention in England, Italy, Spain etc. still existed back then and were still popular amongst the "euro-snob" crowd of the day. Of course there will be some snobs that won't come out - you won't get them all. But you don't need to in order to get 15,000 crowds. If you got all of the Eurosnobs out to each match you wouldn't be able to fit the games in a venue twice the size of the Skydome. While the Blizzard NASL matches drew on average 10 to 15 thousand, the Blizzard matches against the likes of Juventus & Nottingham Forest (then one of England's top teams) got 30 to 50 thousand. So yes history may very well repeat itself and we won't get those crowds of 30 to 50,000 to see Toronto MLS play. But are those sized crowds needed to make this work in Toronto? I don't think so and neither does the MLSE chief accountants apparently, and as its unlikely that we will see NASL like salaries thrown about Toronto MLS I'm inclined to believe them until someone can demonstrate otherwise.

[dbailey62]

quote:Originally posted by TOareaFan

Let's hope not! The lowest attendance at an Argo game this year was 24,637 and even last year it was 22,429! If that is what is needed, they better re-think the size of the stadium! Even outside of Toronto the lowest attendance last year was 20,202 (a sell out in Montreal). This year there was a crowd, or two, in Ottawa that was around 16k....I would think that would make MLS and MLSE very, very happy.

The whole issue of Major League versus Minor League is probably more crucial in Toronto than most cities. We have, simply put, shown great disdain for anything that is not "major" league in any</u> sport.

Before the Raptors came to town we had the Toronto Towers of the CBA...does anyone remember sitting in mostly empty Varsity Arena watching Ted Stepian's toy go bankrupt....I do!

Before the Jays, there had been an 11 or 12 year gap since the last effort to sell minor league baseball had ended here! (that pre-dated even me in this town).

The Argos are thrilled to now be averaging around 30,000 per game but does anyone think that any of The Rogers Centre's 54,000 seats would be empty on any game day (at likely 3 or 4 times the price) if it was NFL football being played there.

Even hockey, that sport which we believe is the equivalent to a religion in Canada, has great difficulty selling any great amount of tickets to any game that is not the NHL. The Road Runners died and the Marlies, playing in a brand new, taxpayer funded, arena in the same location as our new SSS, are doing no better than 10th in the league in attendance (averaging 5,921 fans) even though 2 of their 6 games have been against near rival Hamilton!

The success or failure of MLS in Toronto hinges entirely on this question. Will the league/game/team be viewed as "major" because it is the best available product in the country/continent or will it be "minor" league because it pales in comparison, in the eye of the "educated" Toronto soccer fans, to EPL/La Liga/Serie A/Bundesliga?

History tells me that, unfortunately, it will be the latter. I am anxious to be proven wrong but, I fear, I will have a long wait.

Actually, it was the Toronto Tornados of the CBA. Thank god they weren't named the Towers. Always hated it.

Regarding the stadium size, I'd rather have people turned away at the gate, as happens with the Alouettes, than build a stadium too big and have empty seats.

Imagine the Argos in a smaller stadium. That ticket would be HOT!

db

[RealGooner]

quote:Originally posted by Gian-Luca

Exactly. But just because the MLS won't be as huge as the NHL, MLB, etc. doesn't mean that it won't be viewed as being a "major league" - that is already the perception of most people I've spoken to who have heard about Toronto getting a pro soccer team for the first time since the days of the NASL Blizzard (for that is how they perceive things).

The NASL Blizzard was viewed as being major league, even though the very same soccer leagues you mention in England, Italy, Spain etc. still existed back then and were still popular amongst the "euro-snob" crowd of the day. Of course there will be some snobs that won't come out - you won't get them all. But you don't need to in order to get 15,000 crowds. If you got all of the Eurosnobs out to each match you wouldn't be able to fit the games in a venue twice the size of the Skydome. While the Blizzard NASL matches drew on average 10 to 15 thousand, the Blizzard matches against the likes of Juventus & Nottingham Forest (then one of England's top teams) got 30 to 50 thousand. So yes history may very well repeat itself and we won't get those crowds of 30 to 50,000 to see Toronto MLS play. But are those sized crowds needed to make this work in Toronto? I don't think so and neither does the MLSE chief accountants apparently, and as its unlikely that we will see NASL like salaries thrown about Toronto MLS I'm inclined to believe them until someone can demonstrate otherwise.

Good point. People need to stop picking on the so-called Eurosnobs (or other groups) and stop assuming you know what they will think or do. I would be probably be considered a Eurosnob, and there are many other posters here who probably fit the bill too, but I and they are very excited about supporting MLS. The thing about many knowledgeble Toronto soccer fans is that we know exactly what type of product we are getting in MLS. This is counter to the allegations of the G-Mans of Canada who clearly don't understand Toronto residents at all. We know that MLS isn't EPL or Serie A. But it is the best, most professional league that will be available to North Americans, for the forseeable future. It is a league that takes its product seriously, and its drive to build soccer stadiums shows us that it actually cares about real soccer fans. The Lynx don't and they flounder here. I have about 4 friends who would be considered Eurosnobs and every last one is interested in attending games when MLS arrives. They know what MLS is and is not and want to give it a chance. Some Eurosnobs will come, others won't. Some casual sports fans will come, others wont. Should we ignore casual sports fans just because ALL of them won't come? Theres your answer. As the earlier poster suggeted, theres no reason why Arsenal-supporting RealGooner cannot attend a game and be flanked by a curious sports fan on the left and a soccer dad and his 2 kids on the right. There needs to be a place for everyone and those who say, "ignore this group or that because they wont be interested in MLS" are the real reason why soccer fails in this country time and again. We are just too insular, and think we are the only people who like this sport, lol.

[Andrew W]

quote:Originally posted by RealGooner

Good point. People need to stop picking on the so-called Eurosnobs (or other groups) and stop assuming you know what they will think or do. I would be probably be considered a Eurosnob, and there are many other posters here who probably fit the bill too, but I and they are very excited about supporting MLS. The thing about many knowledgeble Toronto soccer fans is that we know exactly what type of product we are getting in MLS. This is counter to the allegations of the G-Mans of Canada who clearly don't understand Toronto residents at all. We know that MLS isn't EPL or Serie A. But it is the best, most professional league that will be available to North Americans, for the forseeable future. It is a league that takes its product seriously, and its drive to build soccer stadiums shows us that it actually cares about real soccer fans. The Lynx don't and they flounder here. I have about 4 friends who would be considered Eurosnobs and every last one is interested in attending games when MLS arrives. They know what MLS is and is not and want to give it a chance. Some Eurosnobs will come, others won't. Some casual sports fans will come, others wont. Should we ignore casual sports fans just because ALL of them won't come? Theres your answer. As the earlier poster suggeted, theres no reason why Arsenal-supporting RealGooner cannot attend a game and be flanked by a curious sports fan on the left and a soccer dad and his 2 kids on the right. There needs to be a place for everyone and those who say, "ignore this group or that because they wont be interested in MLS" are the real reason why soccer fails in this country time and again. We are just too insular, and think we are the only people who like this sport, lol.

I think that's me you're referring to. Nowhere do I suggest ignore the Eurosnob market. What I said was don't cater to it, which is doomed to failure, and different from ignoring it. In other words, don't sign any former Euro star (the ultimate washed up Euro) expecting to draw a Euro crowd. Market the Toronto MLS team straight up as a Toronto and North American product because I believe that any Eurosnob that may be interested in attending games will find it less patronizing than trying to recreate that European feel. Sure, they're not stupid people who are going to be fooled into believing its on par with the big four or five leagues in Europe, but I think they will appreciate an effort to make it a strong Canadian product within a North American context.

That's what I was suggesting.

Make it a product with broad appeal (ie, competitive with some good, solid, fun promotions) and stay away from overly gimmicky stuff. However, one item that may help to secure the Euro-centric fan is to have supporter club(s) that are dedicated and able to create a great atmosphere for all fans to enjoy. Not all of them are terrace-singers but enough of them would appreciate the effort.

[River City]

The Crackhead Pool

7,700 - G-Man

9,000 - DoyleG

9,567 - River City

11,000 - Andrew W

14,000 - Rudi

14,000 - RealGooner

16,000 - Gordon

[RealGooner]

quote:Originally posted by Andrew W

I think that's me you're referring to. Nowhere do I suggest ignore the Eurosnob market. What I said was don't cater to it, which is doomed to failure, and different from ignoring it. In other words, don't sign any former Euro star (the ultimate washed up Euro) expecting to draw a Euro crowd. Market the Toronto MLS team straight up as a Toronto and North American product because I believe that any Eurosnob that may be interested in attending games will find it less patronizing than trying to recreate that European feel. Sure, they're not stupid people who are going to be fooled into believing its on par with the big four or five leagues in Europe, but I think they will appreciate an effort to make it a strong Canadian product within a North American context.

That's what I was suggesting.

Make it a product with broad appeal (ie, competitive with some good, solid, fun promotions) and stay away from overly gimmicky stuff. However, one item that may help to secure the Euro-centric fan is to have supporter club(s) that are dedicated and able to create a great atmosphere for all fans to enjoy. Not all of them are terrace-singers but enough of them would appreciate the effort.

Thanks for for clearing that up Andrew W. Based on your explanation above, you and I are basically in full agreement as to the approach MLS should take. Although some of what I said was in response to you, much of it was in a reaction to some of the comments that have been made about Toronto soccer fans, mainly by people who don't live here. You've seen them, both here and on BigSoccer. So yes, a polished, non-gimmicky and professionally run team will sell itself to all segments of the market, without haveing to pander to any one group in particular. And yes, a supporters group that generates a spine-tingling atmosphere will help attract ALL segments to the sport. I hope that ours will be up to the challenge, and i hope MLSE will understand how important the ultras will be to make MLS a must-have ticket for all demographics.

[Andrew W]

I don't know if anyone has seen this, but CBC has a subsection on MLS coming to Toronto.

CBC on MLS

There is a point/counterpoint about the possibility of success. Vijay Setlur writes the "it will succeed" column while John F. Molinaro writes the "it will fail" column. Not a bad little feature on the whole soccer thing.

A snippet from Molinaro's column includes the following:

The fact MLSE isn't backing up its words with its own money, however, speaks volumes and should tell you all you need to know about MLS's chances in Toronto.