Tuscan Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 This is related 100% to the article Peter Wilt created for Howler Magazine's WhatAHowler.com site. https://whatahowler.com/professional-soccer-expansion-in-north-america-45715f7806ec#.ergx3c623 I'm not a stats person, but I respect the information and insight they provide and believe that the type of info he's uncovered for US centers and their prospect as a great place for pro soccer to flourish could be easily translatable to Canadian centers. I'm hoping one or more of you intrepid Vs could look into a similar study of Canadian centers, perhaps focusing on the medium sized cities and smaller sized cities. Perhaps use the 2011 census data via Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_100_largest_municipalities_in_Canada_by_population Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Complete Homer Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 I'm a bit of stats guy. If I had time, I'd love to put together a multiple regression model based on population with X km radius, venue size, average temperature during season, % recent immigrant, # of other pro teams in region, etc based on MLS/NASL/USL data to predict average attendance for each potential CPL market... It's tempting enough that I might have to find time for it in the next couple of months. Any other variables (that would be easy to find data on) people would be interested in? It's unlikely that it would come anytime soon, but I might be able to get around to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tuscan Posted October 13, 2016 Author Share Posted October 13, 2016 One of the stats I'm most interested in is % Homegrown Fanbase. This is a stat that I think will really cripple cities like *sob* Saskatoon. Our population here is made up of tons of people from rural areas of the province. I think Saskatoon's sports teams struggle to make a connection to the city because the city's population struggles to make a connection to the city. It could also explain why teams branded as Saskatchewan ________ rather than Saskatoon/Regina _________ seem to have an easier time building fanbases. Not saying it is the definitive reason, or a main reason, but look how quickly the Saskatchewan Rush have grown their season ticket holder base. They just sold 7,000 season tickets for this year! Their second year of existence (as an SK-based team, of course). Sour grapes, Edmonton lacrosse fans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ironcub14 Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 15 minutes ago, Complete Homer said: I'm a bit of stats guy. If I had time, I'd love to put together a multiple regression model based on population with X km radius, venue size, average temperature during season, % recent immigrant, # of other pro teams in region, etc based on MLS/NASL/USL data to predict average attendance for each potential CPL market... It's tempting enough that I might have to find time for it in the next couple of months. I was talking to Jeff about quick on twitter yesterday and suggested he pose the question on the V's. I'm a bit of a lapsed stats guy, did those regression models for university but haven't touched it since then, but I'm getting back into it for work purposes anyways. So atm, I'm not much of a econometrics/stats guy, but I am decent at data collection and elementary stats, and would be happy to contribute in any way over the weeks/months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackTheBlizzard Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 Found this snippet interesting: Only five of the 53 markets under one million have pro soccer teams (all in the USL). Meanwhile, pro teams exist in 42 of the 54 MSAs with more than a million people. Were we to include Canada, Edmonton (pop. 1.16 million) would also make it onto the chart to the left. Seems about right to me for what the minimum population is to reasonably expect a pro soccer team to hang around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tuscan Posted October 13, 2016 Author Share Posted October 13, 2016 500,000 min population you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matty Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 I don't know how much of this can really be translated to the CPL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ironcub14 Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 Apologies to those who have seen the list below a hundred times, but the big difference between #9 and #10 tells me that the first 9 on the list below, with the possible exception of Vancouver due to the Caps, seem like a perfect starting 8 for a CPL. I understand most people would fit in Regina, ranked #18, as the exception. 1 Toronto (Mississauga) 5,583,064 2 Montreal (Laval) 3,824,221 3 Vancouver (Surrey) 2,313,328 4 Ottawa–Gatineau 1,236,324 5 Calgary 1,214,839 6 Edmonton 1,159,869 7 Quebec City (Lévis) 765,706 8 Winnipeg 730,018 9 Hamilton (Burlington) 721,053 10 Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo 477,160 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matty Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 1 minute ago, Tuscan said: 500,000 min population you think? 22 minutes ago, BringBackTheBlizzard said: Seems about right to me for what the minimum population is to reasonably expect a pro soccer team to hang around. This is an example of why I question the article. A city like Regina has proved capable of supporting pro sports with less than 300,000 people. What equals a major Canadian city is different from the US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ironcub14 Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 2 minutes ago, matty said: This is an example of why I question the article. A city like Regina has proved capable of supporting pro sports with less than 300,000 people. What equals a major Canadian city is different from the US It most definitely an outlier/exceptional case, just like Green Bay is. And that's really amazing for them. But how many mid-sized Canadian cities can we say are obsessed about footy in a historical manner in the way that Regina and Green Bay are about football? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackTheBlizzard Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 Really, when Green Bay supports an NFL team? The occasional outlier doesn't negate the overall trend and it's worth bearing in mind that FC Edmonton that would be sixth on the list has only stayed afloat because the Fath brothers have been unusually patient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Complete Homer Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 ^It's also important to note that small-ish cities, except certain areas like southern BC and southern Ontario, are the major center for much larger areas in Canada than in the USA. It's why Regina can support the Roughriders with ease, yet I am skeptical that KW with a significantly larger population could do the same. Regina is the key center for all the province's sports, while KW looks primarily to Toronto for it's sports entertainment. Hamilton and Victoria may a bit of an anomaly owing to their histories Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matty Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 4 minutes ago, ironcub14 said: It most definitely an outlier/exceptional case, just like Green Bay is. And that's really amazing for them. But how many mid-sized Canadian cities can we say are obsessed about footy in a historical manner in the way that Regina and Green Bay are about football? I agree not many but I'd add Halifax, Moncton, Victoria and even Saskatoon to a possible list. A big factor why I have issues with the article is that its totally focused on US leagues which use the USD. Smaller markets in Canada definitely would not be able to function with the USD but the CAD possibly offers them a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Complete Homer Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 Just now, matty said: I agree not many but I'd add Halifax, Moncton, Victoria and even Saskatoon to a possible list. A big factor I have with the article is that its totally focused on US leagues which use the USD. If there is a Regina team, I am pretty certain Saskatoon is out of the question. The Roughriders survive as being "Saskatchewan's Team," being only Regina's team would be too risky. Even Regina on its own is risky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matty Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 2 minutes ago, Complete Homer said: If there is a Regina team, I am pretty certain Saskatoon is out of the question. The Roughriders survive as being "Saskatchewan's Team," being only Regina's team would be too risky. Even Regina on its own is risky I agree I meant if Regina did not have one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Complete Homer Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 Just now, matty said: I agree I meant if Regina did not have one Ah ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ironcub14 Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 Just a quick note on the article, by the way, I'm almost certain that Peter Wilt and his team did include all Canadian CMAs and American MSAs with a population of 500k+ in their model. I see Calgary, Quebec City, Winnipeg and Ottawa all in their lists. The problem is that Canada only has 9 CMAs with a population of 500K+. While we could sit here for weeks debating or trying to replicate the model, I think I'll just go on Twitter and ask Peter and Keaton Robbins if they could extend their model for MSAs and CMAs at the 250k ~ 500k range. If they do so, we could get some viability rankings on the following 8 CMAs. Since Jeff started the convo, I'll make sure we put in a word for Regina as an exception lol. 10 Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo 477,160 11 London 474,786 12 St. Catharines - Niagara (Niagara Falls, Welland) 392,184 13 Halifax 390,328 14 Oshawa (Whitby, Clarington) 356,177 15 Victoria (Saanich) 344,615 16 Windsor (Lakeshore) 319,246 17 Saskatoon 260,600 18 Regina 210,556 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ironcub14 Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 I asked them just now, they might just lol at it and move on, but we did have a convo going yesterday, between Jeff, Keaton and I, so who knows? Can only ask and hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matty Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 11 hours ago, ironcub14 said: Just a quick note on the article, by the way, I'm almost certain that Peter Wilt and his team did include all Canadian CMAs and American MSAs with a population of 500k+ in their model. I see Calgary and Quebec City in their lists. The problem is that Canada only has 9 CMAs with a population of 500K+. While we could sit here for weeks debating or trying to replicate the model, I think I'll just go on Twitter and ask Peter and Keaton Robbins if they could extend their model for MSAs and CMAs at the 250k ~ 500k range. If they do so, we could get some viability rankings on the following 8 CMAs. Since Jeff started the convo, I'll make sure we put in a word for Regina as an exception lol. 10 Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo 477,160 11 London 474,786 12 St. Catharines - Niagara (Niagara Falls, Welland) 392,184 13 Halifax 390,328 14 Oshawa (Whitby, Clarington) 356,177 15 Victoria (Saanich) 344,615 16 Windsor (Lakeshore) 319,246 17 Saskatoon 260,600 18 Regina 210,556 Sounds good but I would also mention Moncton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ironcub14 Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 3 minutes ago, matty said: Sounds good but I would also mention Mocton If they are so kind to do the extra work, we can always ask again later for the 100k ~ 250k range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Complete Homer Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 Anyone from out east able to comment on how far people are willing to drive to sporting events? I grew up driving 1.5-2 hours for leaf games, if that is reasonable out east than Moncton has a pretty sizable population to draw on. I'm just not sure how much commuting culture compares between southern ontario and the maritimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopherbashi Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 39 minutes ago, Complete Homer said: Anyone from out east able to comment on how far people are willing to drive to sporting events? I grew up driving 1.5-2 hours for leaf games, if that is reasonable out east than Moncton has a pretty sizable population to draw on. I'm just not sure how much commuting culture compares between southern ontario and the maritimes People in the GTA are also used to the 1.5 hour drive because they, well, commute to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Complete Homer Posted October 13, 2016 Share Posted October 13, 2016 9 minutes ago, Gopherbashi said: People in the GTA are also used to the 1.5 hour drive because they, well, commute to work. Yeah I realize that, but I imagine there's at least a subset that does something similar in the maritimes, I was just wondering if there was an actual maritimer willing to comment as opposed to outsiders making assumptions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tuscan Posted October 14, 2016 Author Share Posted October 14, 2016 21 hours ago, Complete Homer said: If there is a Regina team, I am pretty certain Saskatoon is out of the question. The Roughriders survive as being "Saskatchewan's Team," being only Regina's team would be too risky. Even Regina on its own is risky See and this is something I think the CFL has done to actually hurt its own future growth potential. By branding the SK and BC teams as SK and BC instead of as the cities where they're located, they've basically eliminated all other cities in those provinces from having the chance to have their own team. SK is particularly bad as if you even mention the idea of a separate S'toon CFL team you're branded a heretic. No word of a lie I suggested that idea to a couple of my classes during university and people were outright hostile to the idea and said they'd actively work against the new team here. I really don't want the CanPL to make that same mistake. I want Regina's team to be Regina, not Saskatchewan. I want Regina and Saskatoon to face each other in the Voyageurs Cup and to be a really hotly contested rivalry with animosity between players and between fans. I know I joke about the idea of supporters clashes between the two teams, but I genuinely hope that our two cities get the opportunity to renew the old rivalry on the football pitch, just the ACTUAL football in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Complete Homer Posted October 14, 2016 Share Posted October 14, 2016 36 minutes ago, Tuscan said: See and this is something I think the CFL has done to actually hurt its own future growth potential. By branding the SK and BC teams as SK and BC instead of as the cities where they're located, they've basically eliminated all other cities in those provinces from having the chance to have their own team. SK is particularly bad as if you even mention the idea of a separate S'toon CFL team you're branded a heretic. No word of a lie I suggested that idea to a couple of my classes during university and people were outright hostile to the idea and said they'd actively work against the new team here. I really don't want the CanPL to make that same mistake. I want Regina's team to be Regina, not Saskatchewan. I want Regina and Saskatoon to face each other in the Voyageurs Cup and to be a really hotly contested rivalry with animosity between players and between fans. I know I joke about the idea of supporters clashes between the two teams, but I genuinely hope that our two cities get the opportunity to renew the old rivalry on the football pitch, just the ACTUAL football in this case. Do you think Regina and Saskatoon each really support 5000-10000 fans per game? Since you end up (partially) excluding outlying areas by not branding it as Saskatchewan, you're really only relying on the 200-300k people in each city, which seems like a stretch to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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