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Viability of CanPL Locations


Tuscan

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On 10/15/2016 at 4:50 AM, River_City2 said:

I had sent the western Canadian portion to Tuscan and he asked me to post it here.  There are a few folks keen to do a Peter Wilt-esque report for the Canadian market and rather than circulate it privately, better to put it out in the open.  As posted in my first post, my interpretation of the data led to the post on the Alternative CPL Models thread - a national, 6 division system, fully open with pro/rel (with obvious standards at each level).

My reasoning being that if the CJHL and CHL can make it work despite the population spread and immense distances in this country, there is nothing stopping regional Div 4/Div 3/Div 2 systems from being created leading to a national Div 1.  It would be much less expensive than starting with Div 1, allow for mistakes to happen on a smaller scale and add excitement as teams play for promotion to each higher Division..  But my intent wasn't to get into a discussion (they're ultimately a waste of time), just to share the info.

It is interesting data thank you; yet I don't understand why you've left out certain leagues/sports: in particular some of the minor baseball leagues that actually draw crowds in the summer who the CPL would compete against. I get why you'd ignore basketball (even though I'm and NBLC fan) and minor league lacrosse -as they don't compete for the same market share- but then you count NLL. Additionally, you've included CHL, CJHL and ignored AHL, and ECHL. 

If the goal is to be thorough, much better organization of which data sets are useful should be taken into account. I get you're trying to show what sort of populations can support different levels of sports, but the raw data itself is a bit chaotic. I think you should revisit the premises a little and then start the data quest over.

Personally, I'd focus on competing summer sports like Field lacrosse, Baseball, Junior football, CFL firstly. Then I'd look at markets ~100k+ with these competitors in mind. Once this type of list is identified, then I believe it would be prudent to look at potential over saturation with other (winter) sports; to shorten/narrow the list into what you think could be D3, D2, and D1 material. 

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On 2016-10-14 at 5:33 PM, rob.notenboom said:

Well that's interesting. Thanks Namu. 

One minor point, Regina's CMA is close to or above 250K now I believe as we've been experiencing record growth for most of the last decade. 

Oddly I know that Wilt was in contact with one influential Regina person. Hmm ...

Just curious ... how are you guys 'back & forth' with him?

Yep, just twitter, started from something Jeff had posted. Peter just had one or two quick replies, but those were good enough for me, he has the idea now in his mind that people would be interested in seeing an analysis of those census areas with 250K~500K populations in US/Canada. And that's already quite good for our purposes.

The analysis that Wilt's team did, we would need a ton of data. It's far far easier to just ask his team to replicate their model than us ever trying. They are getting paid to and making money doing this analysis.

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2 hours ago, ironcub14 said:

Yep, just twitter, started from something Jeff had posted. Peter just had one or two quick replies, but those were good enough for me, he has the idea now in his mind that people would be interested in seeing an analysis of those census areas with 250K~500K populations in US/Canada. And that's already quite good for our purposes.

The analysis that Wilt's team did, we would need a ton of data. It's far far easier to just ask his team to replicate their model than us ever trying. They are getting paid to and making money doing this analysis.

Cool. I managed to find your twitter convo. Wilt seems like a pretty interesting guy. 

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So has Wilt indicated his group is going to actually do an analysis of Canada with a min pop. requirement of about 250,000? I'd lower it to 200,000, simply to get more cities involved in the data. Heck maybe even 150,000 as that would bring the total number of cities up about 33%.

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2 hours ago, Tuscan said:

So has Wilt indicated his group is going to actually do an analysis of Canada with a min pop. requirement of about 250,000? I'd lower it to 200,000, simply to get more cities involved in the data. Heck maybe even 150,000 as that would bring the total number of cities up about 33%.

What you saw on our twitter convo was all I saw as well. I thought it was quite a good start, Peter could have ignored us easily if he wanted, even just a quick "yes" to the question of, will you consider such an analysis, I think that's pretty good enough. The analysis itself would take weeks to do, I'm sure. And since we know Keaton, that will definitely go a long way as well, definitely helps.

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3 hours ago, Tuscan said:

So has Wilt indicated his group is going to actually do an analysis of Canada with a min pop. requirement of about 250,000? I'd lower it to 200,000, simply to get more cities involved in the data. Heck maybe even 150,000 as that would bring the total number of cities up about 33%.

Given the small number of teams that could realistic start in year one I don't think we need to go that low for now. Let's not make it harder than it has to be by trying to make it viable in communities under 250,000 people

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  • 2 weeks later...

I'm not sure we're trying to prove viability necessarily. I think we're using the data to simply paint a picture of what that market's characteristics are. It's an interesting study using Wilt's team's framework. Until 100% correlation can be proven between his team's data/conclusions and actual success of teams in those markets, it's nothing more than a model to play with. That's why I'd like to see the pop. cut off lowered to 150,000, simply to increase the number of cities the model can be applied to. Couldn't you argue, just knowing the type of city it is, that a place like St. John's would likely rank as one of the highest cities for native population and general pride in the place itself?

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Surrey BC's population is now over 500K, second largest city in BC and a good location for a CPL club if an investor can be found. As its in the Greater Vancouver Metro area it can use "Vancouver" in its name, "BC" or "Surrey".

 

Surrey's talked of wanting to build a 10K stadium for a few years now and also was rumored as a CFL BC Lions stadium location possibility previously. A modular stadium like the Vancouver Whitecaps Empire Field could be erected for a few years while a permanent stadium is built. Whitecaps farm team in USL was looking at Surrey as a possibility at one time and the city even had a tract of land for the stadium in mind.

 

Nussli erected Empire Field's modular stadium and has also done Charlotte's Ramblewood stadium (1.9 million with 4250 seats) & Sacramento's Bonney Field (3 million 11K capacity).

Ramblewood :

IND-Stadium.jpg

Sacramento's Bonny Field :

14-6-20-srfc-gmae-selects-19.jpg

 

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On 11/2/2016 at 4:40 PM, CDNFootballer said:

Surrey BC's population is now over 500K, second largest city in BC and a good location for a CPL club if an investor can be found. As its in the Greater Vancouver Metro area it can use "Vancouver" in its name, "BC" or "Surrey".

 

Surrey's talked of wanting to build a 10K stadium for a few years now and also was rumored as a CFL BC Lions stadium location possibility previously. A modular stadium like the Vancouver Whitecaps Empire Field could be erected for a few years while a permanent stadium is built. Whitecaps farm team in USL was looking at Surrey as a possibility at one time and the city even had a tract of land for the stadium in mind.

 

Nussli erected Empire Field's modular stadium and has also done Charlotte's Ramblewood stadium (1.9 million with 4250 seats) & Sacramento's Bonney Field (3 million 11K capacity).

Ramblewood :

IND-Stadium.jpg

Sacramento's Bonny Field :

14-6-20-srfc-gmae-selects-19.jpg

 

I have been to Bonney. It is fine for that level of play.

You have to remember that Surrey is not Sacramento though. Any stadium in the greater Vancouver area is going to require a roof, so the costs will be much more.

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6 hours ago, masster said:

I have been to Bonney. It is fine for that level of play.

You have to remember that Surrey is not Sacramento though. Any stadium in the greater Vancouver area is going to require a roof, so the costs will be much more.

It would be ideal for sure to have a roof. I think Empire Field only had one on one side and the endzone and other side didn't if I remember correctly. FC Edmonton's lack of a roof seems to have contributed to their lower attendance numbers.

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Here are the economic forecasts for Canada's 13 major cities next year (growth for 2017 in brackets):

#1: Vancouver (up 2.8 per cent)

Vancouver has been an economic miracle in recent years, with the economy clocking a four-per-cent annual growth rate this year and last.

And though the city will lead the country again next year, it will be by a smaller margin, thanks to the slowdown in its housing market.

"While Vancouver's economy is forecast to slow next year, partly due to federal and provincial government measures directed at cooling the over-heated housing market, the pace of growth still will be strong enough to maintain the metro area's first place ranking,” said Alan Arcand, associate director of the Conference Board’s Centre for Municipal Studies.

#2: Toronto (up 2.6 per cent)

Like Vancouver, Toronto’s growth will be slower in 2017 (it’s on course for a blistering 3.4-per-cent growth rate for this year). But it will still be strong enough to take second place.

“The lower Canadian dollar and moderate U.S. demand continue to support activity in export-oriented sectors, such as manufacturing and tourism,” the Conference Board wrote. And the city’s hot housing market “continues to boost output growth in finance, insurance and real estate.”

#3: Halifax (up 2.5 per cent)

It’s rare that Atlantic Canada makes its way to near the top of economic growth rankings, but thanks to shipbuilding activities for the Royal Canadian Navy, Halifax's manufacturing sector is expected to soar five per cent this year and 6.7 per cent in 2017. The city is on track to be the third-fastest growing this year and next, with growth of 2.5 per cent.

"Halifax continues to reap the benefits of a diverse economy, as most sectors are expected to contribute positively to growth this year and next," the Conference Board’s Arcand said.

#4: Victoria (up 2.5 per cent)

Thanks to B.C.’s budget surplus, spending is rising in the province’s capital, propelling the economy forward.

In addition, “a robust housing market will help drive growth both in the construction sector and in finance, insurance and real estate,” the Conference Board said.

#5: Winnipeg (up 2.3 per cent)

Like Halifax, Winnipeg is another city where a strong manufacturing sector will boost the economy next year. The Conference Board notes the success of bus maker New Flyer, which has landed new contracts in Vancouver, Philadelphia and Connecticut.

"Winnipeg's diverse economy continues to foster stable and solid growth, and generate a healthy number of new jobs," the Conference Board’s Arcand said.

#6: Ottawa (up 2.2 per cent)

The years of austerity under the Harper government are coming to an end, and that should be good for the Ottawa-Gatineau area, the Conference Board says.

“Higher levels of government spending will drive gains in public administration,” the Conference Board said, and the services sector “will also benefit next year from all of the activity surrounding the country's 150th birthday celebrations.”

#7 (tie): Calgary (up 2 per cent)

Calgary’s economy shrank by 3.2 per cent last year, and is on track to shrink by another 21 per cent this year, thanks to the ongoing slump in oil prices. But that slump won’t last forever.

“We expect that 2016 will mark the end of this latest recession, as both [Calgary and Edmonton] economies are expected to start recovering next year, in line with gradually rising crude oil prices," the Conference Board’s Arcand said.

#7 (tie): Edmonton (up 2 per cent)

Edmonton’s economy will return to growth next year, the Conference Board forecasts, though it might not be oil that pushes it back up -- it could be government spending.

“Edmonton's large public sector has been growing strongly, helping to offset the downturn in the oil and gas sector,” the Conference Board said. “Indeed, non-commercial services and public administration are set to be the growth leaders this year.”

#7 (tie): Hamilton (up 2 per cent)

Steel town Hamilton has seen a housing boom in the past few years, thanks to homebuyers moving further out from Toronto as house prices rise.

But it’s Hamilton’s manufacturing, boosted by a lower loonie, that will help the city grow next year, the Conference Board says. “Although employment is set to post a meagre gain this year, we expect job growth to accelerate sharply in 2017,” it said.

#7 (tie): Montreal (up 2 per cent)

Montreal’s economy will accelerate from 1.6 per cent growth this year, to 2 per cent next year. Transportation and warehousing will lead growth, with tourism adding a helping hand as well.

"Montreal's economic improvement is being driven by massive infrastructure investments and widespread gains across the services sector,” the Conference Board’s Arcand said.

#7 (tie): Saskatoon (up 2 per cent)

Services, rather than resources or energy, will drive economic growth in Saskatoon, the Conference Board says. Resources and utilities, the two largest sectors in Saskatoon, will be largely flat.

"The modest economic growth seen in both Saskatoon and Regina this year is expected to be followed by slightly stronger gains in 2017, although growth will remain well below pre-recession levels," the Conference Board’s Arcand said.

#12: Regina (up 1.8 per cent)

Regina’s economy shrank 0.5 per cent last year, bounced back to an expected growth rate of 1.3 per cent this year, and will grow a little faster than that next year, the Conference Board says.

Major new construction projects, like a new football stadium, will help the construction industry recover from a home sales slump, the board predicts.

#13: Quebec City (up 1.7 per cent)

Quebec City’s growth next year will be double this year’s growth, but will still be the slowest of the major metro areas covered by the Conference Board.

Like Montreal, Quebec is seeing growth in tourism and services, thanks to a lower loonie. But the cheaper dollar is also boosting Quebec’s manufacturing base, which is expected to grow for a fourth year in a row.

 

-Huffington Post

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