Guest Jeffery S. Posted November 19, 2009 Share Posted November 19, 2009 Thought I'd start a new one, to last until we get close. The draw is on December 4 in Cape Town. I saw a preliminary list of groups for the draw on a sport web in Spain earlier today, now can't find it again, but will keep looking. The first group had the host, Argentina, Brazil and the top 5 European teams. The second had the rest of the UEFA teams, including Holland. The third had the rest of the AFrican sides and others, the last had the Concacaf sides and Asian sides, plus others. Going on memory now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beachesl Posted November 19, 2009 Share Posted November 19, 2009 quote:Originally posted by Jeffrey S. Thought I'd start a new one, to last until we get close. The draw is on December 4 in Cape Town. I saw a preliminary list of groups for the draw on a sport web in Spain earlier today, now can't find it again, but will keep looking. The first group had the host, Argentina, Brazil and the top 5 European teams. The second had the rest of the UEFA teams, including Holland. The third had the rest of the AFrican sides and others, the last had the Concacaf sides and Asian sides, plus others. Going on memory now. Pretty sure it is still speculation, I have seen various predicted pots around, final procedure and pots yet to be decided by FIFA I think. It could be very last minute, or not even announced until the moment of the draw. For example, see this article:..... http://bleacherreport.com/articles/293526-world-cup-draw-2010-england-set-for-seeding-boost -------- World Cup Draw 2010: England Set for Seeding Boost by Matt S Matt SScribe, Featured Columnist Scribe Written on November 19, 2009 With Uruguay becoming the 32nd and final team to qualify for the 2010 World Cup last night, thoughts are immediately starting to turn towards the Finals themselves, with the draw set to take place in just over two weeks time on 4 December in Cape Town. Questions about the possible draw immediately spring to which teams will be seeded and who can and cannot be drawn in the same group, as well as whether there will, inevitably, be a Group of Death . FIFA have yet to announce the method by which they will decide the seedings and subsequent lay-out for the draw, but we are able to speculate based on the processes used for the past few tournaments. Since 1998 FIFA have employed constraints for the draw which ensure that no more than two European teams are placed in the same group, and equally that no group contains more than one team from any other confederation. The seedings have been calculated using a formula based on performances at previous World Cups as well as taking into account the FIFA World Rankings. The seedings for the 2006 World Cup were decided based on each nation’s performance at the past two World Cups, as well as their FIFA World Rankings over the previous three years. The following information is all based on this very seeding formula which FIFA used for the 2006 World Cup. FIFA will incorporate the FIFA World Rankings for November, which are released tomorrow, in their calculations but the October rankings have been used here—there will be minor changes in the new rankings tomorrow but nothing significant enough to affect the below as long as the 2006 method is still used. South Africa are automatically seeded and placed in Group A, to ensure that they play the opening game, as hosts of the tournament. The other seeds are the seven highest placed teams based on the criteria outlaid above. These seven teams are Brazil, Germany, Italy, Spain, England, France, and Argentina. All seven were also top seeds at the 2006 World Cup where they were joined by Mexico, whereas South Africa join them this time. Portugal and the Netherlands just miss out, the former in particular coming close to edging out Raymond Domenech’s France. The second pot consists of the remaining eight European nations who have qualified. They make up their own pot so that no group will contain will contain more than two teams from Europe. Portugal and the Netherlands are joined in this pot by Switzerland, Slovenia, Greece, Denmark, Serbia, and Slovakia. Any of these teams can be drawn into any group. The third and fourth pots will divide the remaining qualifiers from the CONCACAF, CONMEBOL, African, Asia, and Oceania regions. Africa has five qualifiers and is paired with the three qualifiers from the CONMEBOL region to make a group of eight. Asia (four teams), CONCACAF (three remaining teams), and Oceania (one team) make up the final group of eight. *Note the three CONEMBOL or CONCACAF teams could be in either pot, depending on how FIFA decide to organise the draw. All of this leaves the pots for the World Cup draw looking as below: (*Note: Pot 1 contains the seeded teams, thereafter Pots 2-4 are in no order of relative strength, i.e. Pot 2 is not a higher seed than Pot 4.) Pot 1: South Africa, Brazil, Germany, Italy, Spain, England, France, Argentina Pot 2: Portugal, Netherlands, Switzerland, Slovenia, Greece, Denmark, Serbia, Slovakia Pot 3: Uruguay, Chile, Paraguay, Ghana, Cameroon, Cote d’Ivoire, Nigeria, Algeria Pot 4: South Korea, Japan, Australia, North Korea, Mexico, USA, Honduras, New Zealand Below, by way of speculation and to make things more interesting is a *random * draw of how the groups could come out using these seedings and pots: Random Draw Group A: South Africa, Switzerland, Chile, USA Group B: England, Portugal, Cameroon, Honduras Group C: Spain, Slovakia, Cote d’Ivoire, South Korea Group D: Brazil, Slovenia, Ghana, Mexico Group E: Argentina, Netherlands, Nigeria, North Korea Group F: France, Greece, Uruguay, Australia Group G: Germany, Serbia, Algeria, New Zealand Group H: Italy, Denmark, Paraguay, Japan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jeffery S. Posted November 19, 2009 Share Posted November 19, 2009 Maybe that is what I saw, a speculation. The team for the favourites to avoid in Pot 2 is Holland, maybe Portugal too. To avoid in Pot 3, Cameroon or Nigeria. In Pot 4 no team for the favourites to really fear. A worse group would be Spain, Holland, Cameroon, Mexico, or something like that. As your post lays it out: Pot 1: South Africa, Brazil, Germany, Italy, Spain, England, France, Argentina Pot 2: Portugal, Netherlands, Switzerland, Slovenia, Greece, Denmark, Serbia, Slovakia Pot 3: Uruguay, Chile, Paraguay, Ghana, Cameroon, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Algeria Pot 4: South Korea, Japan, Australia, North Korea, Mexico, USA, Honduras, New Zealand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manuel Posted November 20, 2009 Share Posted November 20, 2009 I don't understand how Argentina and England are in pot 1 ahead of Portugal? Argentina did not make it out of the group stages in 2002 and lost in the quarters in 2006. England was out in the quarters in both 2002 & 2006, and take into account they didn't even qualify for the last Euro. Portugal didn't make it out of the group in 2002 but finished 4th in 2006. If anything, Portugal should definitely be in pot 1 ahead of Argentina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loyola Posted November 20, 2009 Share Posted November 20, 2009 quote:Originally posted by Manuel I don't understand how Argentina and England are in pot 1 ahead of Portugal? Argentina did not make it out of the group stages in 2002 and lost in the quarters in 2006. England was out in the quarters in both 2002 & 2006, and take into account they didn't even qualify for the last Euro. Portugal didn't make it out of the group in 2002 but finished 4th in 2006. If anything, Portugal should definitely be in pot 1 ahead of Argentina. I'm not sure using regional tournament, such as Euro, is a good way to determine the seedings. Portugal finished 21st in 2002 and 4th in 2006. That's 25 England finished at worst 8th and 8th in 2002 and 2006. That's 16. I would say that based on where both teams finished in the last 2 world cup, England has a better record despite not reaching the semis like Portugal did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manuel Posted November 20, 2009 Share Posted November 20, 2009 It makes sense if that’s how they do it. But you can never trust FIFA with these things. Just this morning they announced that the November FIFA ranking will not be used in determining the pots. Just like the playoffs draw, why wait until the last minute to make these announcements? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amacpher Posted November 20, 2009 Share Posted November 20, 2009 quote:Originally posted by loyola I'm not sure using regional tournament, such as Euro, is a good way to determine the seedings. Portugal finished 21st in 2002 and 4th in 2006. That's 25 England finished at worst 8th and 8th in 2002 and 2006. That's 16. Argentina were 6th and 18th = 24 So both were better than Portugal during the past 2 World Cups. Not sure how happy Argentina will be about getting seeded since they always seem to end up in the group of death anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SthMelbRed Posted November 21, 2009 Share Posted November 21, 2009 Ive read (sorry no link) that the seedings are based on a complex formula calculated on FIFA world rankings over the past three years, record at the past three World Cup finals, and results from the latest qualifying cycle. Considering that Portugal finished below England (on aggregate) over the last two tournaments and didn't even qualify for the one prior to that and that they've barely squeeked through qualification this time, you'd have to be either Portuguese or brain dead (the two are not necessarily mutually exclusive) to argue that they're more deserving of a place in Pot 1 this time around. *Portugal's average finish over the last two is not 25, but 12.5, contrary to Loyola's above post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beachesl Posted November 21, 2009 Share Posted November 21, 2009 Again, we cannot say "are based", as FIFA has not announced, nor probably even decided, how to do the seedings or the pots. This is all speculation, albeit educated speculation, based on past World Cup draw formulas. The only thing that is certain is that FIFA announced last week that South Africa will be seeded. PROBABLY the pots will be as those set out above, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordon Posted November 21, 2009 Share Posted November 21, 2009 quote:Originally posted by SthMelbRed *Portugal's average finish over the last two is not 25, but 12.5, contrary to Loyola's above post. Loyola was adding 2 numbers, not averaging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SthMelbRed Posted November 22, 2009 Share Posted November 22, 2009 ^my mistake, and apologies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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