WYC Standings/Quarterfinal Matchups [R]

[sstackho]

Actually, Uzbekistan could win 1-0 and we could win 2-0 and we'd still be out.

Good news is that if we both win 2-0, then we could have a coinflip against Spain!

[loyola]

a coin flip is always good for Canada, we are rank #1 at the FIFA world ranking for coin flip

[Gordon]

quote:Originally posted by Jeffrey S.

So to sum up. If we beat the Czechs by any result and neither Mexico nor Saudi Arabia do better than draw tomorrow, we are through. And would play Burkina Faso.

But even if we win this and if either SA or Mexico win their respective matches, we are out.

That right?

Not quite, there are a lot of 3 point teams to play tomorrow. The Japan and the US groups for example could end up with 3rd place teams on 3 points and -2 goal diff. (Paraguay losing by 1, US by 2 FREX). Obviously it starts with a win by Canada.

[sstackho]

Good point. My confirmation applied to his first scenario (with the caveat that Uzbekistan doesn't win), but not his second scenario.

[strobe_z]

OK.. I'm a little dizzy... all the games for today are done, right?

Can someone post the situations as they stand right now? I'd like to know who to cheer against tomorrow. As I understand it... Uzebekistan is already worse off then we are, so basically we need Mexico to lose (or even draw?). Help!

[Natesta]

Here is how we compare to each group.

We need to finish ahead of the third place in two different groups.

Group A

Team GP W D L GF GA +/- Pts

Burkina Faso 3 2 1 0 2 0 2 7

Slovakia 3 2 0 1 5 2 3 6

U.A.E 3 1 1 1 3 5 -2 4

Panama 3 0 0 3 1 4 -3 0

Conclusion. Bad group for us, we do not finish ahead of U.A.E.

Group B

Team GP W D L GF GA +/- Pts

Argentina 3 3 0 0 7 3 4 9

Spain 3 2 0 1 4 2 2 6

Mali 3 1 0 2 4 7 -3 3

Uzbekistan 3 0 0 3 3 6 -3 0

Conclusion: Yay, one group we've finished ahead of, we only need one more.

Group D

Team GP W D L GF GA +/- Pts

Colombia 2 1 1 0 4 1 3 4

Egypt 2 1 1 0 1 0 1 4

Japan 2 1 0 1 2 4 -2 3

England 2 0 0 2 0 2 -2 0

Conclusion: This group makes me wonder why Hume and co. were wasting time at the end of the game instead of going for that second goal. Because we did not score a second goal we need a Japan loss to Egypt and England can do no better than a draw. If Japan wins this group finishes ahead of us.

Group E

Team GP W D L GF GA +/- Pts

Côte d'Ivoire 2 1 1 0 4 3 1 4

Ireland Republic 2 1 1 0 4 3 1 4

Mexico 2 0 1 1 2 3 -1 1

Saudi Arabia 2 0 1 1 2 3 -1 1

Conclusion: To finish ahead of this group we need Mexico and Saudi Arabia to do no better than a draw.

Group F

Team GP W D L GF GA +/- Pts

Korea Republic 2 1 0 1 2 1 1 3

United States 2 1 0 1 4 4 0 3

Germany 2 1 0 1 3 3 0 3

Paraguay 2 1 0 1 2 3 -1 3

Conclusion: We're screwed when it comes to this group, we want no draws and we want the wins to be decisive (ie. by 2 goals or more.)

Overall conclusion: To Qualify cheer against Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Japan, England, and for blow-outs in group F.

This is going to be harder than people think.

[matthew]

Okay here's how I understand it:

Easiest is group E: Ivory Coast and Ireland are tied tops at 4 pts. Mexico and Saudi Arabia are joint bottom with one each. The two tops play the two bottoms (KSA-CIV and MEX-IRE). All we need is the two tops to at least tie the two bottom teams. But we need both results. One of the underdogs wins and we're screwed.

Group D: We need Egypt to beat Japan, though a tie would see both teams through (if this finishes 0-0 I'll be pissed) Colombia to beat or tie England.

Group F: We need two blowouts. Seems very unlikely. All have three points, so we'd need two teams to win and win big to give us a better goal differential.

Note we only need one of these scenarios to come through to advance. We're already ahead of Mali. We just need one more group.

cheers,

matthew

[sstackho]

Here are things the way I see it:

		

[b]If current results stand:[/b]		


Group A		


FT	0	United Arab Emirates

	0	Burkina Faso


FT	1	Slovakia

	0	Panama


Group B		


FT	3	Argentina

	1	Mali


FT	1	Spain

	0	Uzbekistan


Group C		


FT	2	Brazil

	3	Australia


FT	1	[b]Canada[/b]

	0	Czech Republic


Group D		


8:45am	0	Colombia

EST Fr	0	England


11:30am	0	Egypt

EST Fr	0	Japan


Group E		


8:45am	0	Saudi Arabia

EST Fr	0	Côte d'Ivoire


11:30am	0	Ireland Republic

EST Fr	0	Mexico


Group F		


8:45am	0	Korea Republic

EST Fr	0	United States


11:30am	0	Germany

EST Fr	0	Paraguay


[b]Round of 16 would be:[/b]		


Burkina Faso		

[b]Canada[/b]		


United States		

Spain		


Côte d'Ivoire		

Egypt		


Australia		

Japan		


Colombia

United Arab Emirates


Brazil

Slovakia


Korea Republic

Ireland Republic


Argentina

Germany

[matthew]

quote:Originally posted by Natesta

Conclusion: This group makes me wonder why Hume and co. were wasting time at the end of the game instead of going for that second goal. Because we did not score a second goal we need a Japan loss to Egypt and England can do no better than a draw. If Japan wins this group finishes ahead of us.

If Japan wins or ties they beat us on points, no matter the goals for and against. If they lose, their gf/ga automatically will go to -3 or worse and we will finish ahead of them. So there was no insentive to score a second against the Czechs other than to salt away the match.

cheers,

matthew

[sstackho]

			

[b]Provisional Group Standings[/b]			


GF	+/-	Pts	Group A

2	2	7	Burkina Faso

5	3	6	Slovakia

3	-2	4	United Arab Emirates

1	-3	0	Panama


GF	+/-	Pts	Group B

7	4	9	Argentina

4	2	6	Spain

4	-3	3	Mali

3	-3	0	Uzbekistan


GF	+/-	Pts	Group C

6	2	7	Australia

5	1	4	Brazil

2	-2	3	[b]Canada[/b]

2	-1	2	Czech Republic


GF	+/-	Pts	Group D

4	3	5	Colombia

1	1	5	Egypt

2	-2	4	Japan

0	-2	1	England


GF	+/-	Pts	Group E

4	1	5	Côte d'Ivoire

4	1	5	Ireland Republic

2	-1	2	Mexico

2	-1	2	Saudi Arabia


GF	+/-	Pts	Group F

2	1	4	Korea Republic

4	0	4	United States

3	0	4	Germany

2	-1	4	Paraguay


[b]Provisional 3rd Place Standings[/b]			


GF	+/-	Pts	

3	0	4	Germany

3	-2	4	United Arab Emirates

2	-2	4	Japan

2	-2	3	[b]Canada[/b]

4	-3	3	Mali

2	-1	2	Mexico

[sstackho]

I actually enjoy figuring out this kind of thing, so I think I determined all of the scenarios where Canada gets through. Group F is complicated and has the greatest chance of an error, and is also the least likely to occur.

Canada needs only one of the scenarios below to occur.

Group D

8:45 EST Columbia - England

11:30 EST Egypt - Japan

if Japan lose and England do not win - Canada are in

all other scenarios - Canada finishes behind Group D 3rd place finisher

Group E

8:45 EST Saudi Arabia - Ivory Coast

11:30 EST Ireland - Mexico

if neither Mexico nor Saudi Arabia win - Canada are in

all other scenarios - Canada finishes behind Group E 3rd place finisher

Group F

8:45 EST Korea - US

11:30 EST Germany - Paraguay

if any matches result in a draw:

- Canada finishes behind Group F 3rd place finisher

if Korea and Germany win:

- if Korea win by 3 or more and Germany win 1-0 - Canada and Paraguay are tied

- if Korea win by 3 or more and Germany win by 2 or more - Canada are in

if US and Germany win:

- if US win 3-0 and Germany win 1-0 - Canada and Paraguay are tied

- if US win 3-0 and Germany win by 2 or more - Canada and Korea are tied

- if US win by 4 or more and Germany win 1-0 - Canada and Paraguay are tied

- if US win by 4 or more and Germany win by 2 or more - Canada are in

if Korea and Paraguay win:

- if Korea win by 3 or more and Paraguay win by 3 or more - Canada are in

if US and Paraguay win:

- if US win 3-0 and Paraguay win by 3 or more - Canada and Korea are tied

- if US win by 4 or more and Paraguay win by 3 or more - Canada are in

- all other scenarios, Canada finishes behind Group F 3rd place finisher

[sstackho]

With tongue firmly in cheek, I have calculated that the mathematical probability of Canada progressing to the next round is 53.3%.

Let's assume:

- that each team has equal chance of winning each match

- that each match has a 25% chance of ending in a draw (based on all-time English top-flight statistics)

- that the match results are independent (not bloody likely)

Is the equal chance assumption valid? No, of course not. But it might be reasonable. In each match, the lower-placed teams may be worse than their opposition, but then they typically have more to play for in the final match.

So in each match, each team has a 37.5% chance of winning, with 25% chance of a draw:

Group D

The probability that Japan loses is 37.5%.

The probability that England do not win is 62.5%.

The probability that both of these events occur is 37.5% * 62.5% = 23.4%.

Group E

The probability that Mexico do not win is 62.5%.

The probability that Saudi Arabia do not win is 62.5%.

The probability that both of these events occur is 62.5% * 62.5% = 39.1%

Group F

It is very unlikely that the results in this group will help Canada. I am assigning a probability of 0% for this group.

Probability of Canada qualifying

The probability that Canada qualifies via Group D results is 23.4%.

The probability that Canada qualifies via Group E results is 39.1%.

The probability that Canada qualifies via either group's results is 23.4% + 39.1% - 23.4% * 39.1% = 53.3%.

QED

---

An alternative analysis is that Canada either WILL qualify for the next round OR they WILL NOT qualify for the next round. Therefore the probability is 50/50.

[sstackho]

If Canada qualify for the next round, there is a 100% probability that their opponent would be Burkina Faso.

[Guest Dave]

Don't mean to split hairs, but it seems to me that if you assume that all results are independant of one another, there is no need to deduct the product of the probabilities of a favourable result from the two groups. Hence the true probability would be 23.4% + 39.1% or 62.5%

In order in increase the accuracy of the estimate, it would be preferable to actually calculate the odds of a good result from Group F as well. I may do this after supper.

Dave the obsessive[xx(]

[Guest Dave]

Actually I just realized my error in my last message. The true probability (neglecting Group G) would be

1-((1-23.4%)*(1-39.1%))

or 53.35%

[Gordon]

quote:Originally posted by matthew

If Japan wins or ties they beat us on points, no matter the goals for and against. If they lose, their gf/ga automatically will go to -3 or worse and we will finish ahead of them. So there was no insentive to score a second against the Czechs other than to salt away the match.

cheers,

matthew

Not quite. If Japan loses, and England has a one goal victory, a second Canadian goal would have put us in a position to have a coin flip with the Brits as we'd both be -1 (or we might even avoid the flip by having more goals). Plus, a US defeat by 2 goals would then put us ahead of them, rather than equal but out on goals for (Yankee go home has 4 to our 2), Not to mention the 1 goal Panama loss which leaves them on 3 points and a -2 goal difference, plus it increases our goals for to 3 which may or may not have a tie breaking effect. However, ensuring the win and not giving up the tying goal was essential to having any chance to advance so safety first. Plus, it sounds like we had quite a few chances in the last 15 minutes so it may not be fair to characterize our play as excessively defensive.

[mattbin]

I'd like to apologise to Jarrek for calling him a nerd earlier. Obviously I should have reserved my envy-thinly-disguised-as-scorn for you lot.

But I enjoy it, that's for sure...

Allez les Rouges,

M@

[Grasshopper]

You're not an actuary by chance are you Shawn?

Nice work.

Blair

quote:Originally posted by sstackho

With tongue firmly in cheek, I have calculated that the mathematical probability of Canada progressing to the next round is 53.3%.

Let's assume:

- that each team has equal chance of winning each match

- that each match has a 25% chance of ending in a draw (based on all-time English top-flight statistics)

- that the match results are independent (not bloody likely)

Is the equal chance assumption valid? No, of course not. But it might be reasonable. In each match, the lower-placed teams may be worse than their opposition, but then they typically have more to play for in the final match.

So in each match, each team has a 37.5% chance of winning, with 25% chance of a draw:

Group D

The probability that Japan loses is 37.5%.

The probability that England do not win is 62.5%.

The probability that both of these events occur is 37.5% * 62.5% = 23.4%.

Group E

The probability that Mexico do not win is 62.5%.

The probability that Saudi Arabia do not win is 62.5%.

The probability that both of these events occur is 62.5% * 62.5% = 39.1%

Group F

It is very unlikely that the results in this group will help Canada. I am assigning a probability of 0% for this group.

Probability of Canada qualifying

The probability that Canada qualifies via Group D results is 23.4%.

The probability that Canada qualifies via Group E results is 39.1%.

The probability that Canada qualifies via either group's results is 23.4% + 39.1% - 23.4% * 39.1% = 53.3%.

QED

---

An alternative analysis is that Canada either WILL qualify for the next round OR they WILL NOT qualify for the next round. Therefore the probability is 50/50.

[matthew]

quote:Originally posted by Gordon

]Not quite. If Japan loses, and England has a one goal victory, a second Canadian goal would have put us in a position to have a coin flip with the Brits as we'd both be -1 (or we might even avoid the flip by having more goals). Plus, a US defeat by 2 goals would then put us ahead of them, rather than equal but out on goals for (Yankee go home has 4 to our 2), Not to mention the 1 goal Panama loss which leaves them on 3 points and a -2 goal difference, plus it increases our goals for to 3 which may or may not have a tie breaking effect.

I knew if I posted anything on the tie-beaking and sounded sure of myself I'd be wrong. I went ahead anyway. Thanks for the correction Gordon and appologies to Natesta.

Tomorrow morning's going to be. World Cup draw and six soccer matches to obsess over. Good thing I have the day off.

cheers,

matthew

[sstackho]

quote:Originally posted by Grasshopper

You're not an actuary by chance are you Shawn?

Nice work.

Blair

Hey, I get paid to do this. Oh wait, I should say, I get paid to do stuff like this.

My employer shouldn't complain. I'll be in bright and early tomorrow for 8:45am so I can follow the early matches!

[Gordon]

quote:Originally posted by matthew

I knew if I posted anything on the tie-beaking and sounded sure of myself I'd be wrong. I went ahead anyway. Thanks for the correction Gordon and appologies to Natesta.

Tomorrow morning's going to be. World Cup draw and six soccer matches to obsess over. Good thing I have the day off.

cheers,

matthew

Its seems as if there are so many permutations it is almost impossible to keep up with them all. Canada played it right if they kept the fact that the win was the most important thing and another goal secondary. Lucky you with the day off. I was going to take an EDO but fate intervened and I have two reports due tomorrow that I didn't have 24 hours ago

[Alberto]

These are my vision as I see it happening tommorrow predictions for Canada advancement to the next round will be the game against Korea and to the thanks of ADU scoring the 3rd goal agaisnt Korea which than knocks Paraguay out from the tournament next round and going to Canada from this group.

ALL eyes will be focus on this last game to be played in this Qualify round tommorrow you watch Adu will come thru for the USA and Now for Canada Hail "ADU" he is our champ and Friend he will be in every paper for his goal.

Boy do I smell it coming! I can see the Canadian Headlines

"ADU came Thru for CANADU"

or maybe CANADU GOT THRU

Final standings

Germany will defeat paraguay 2 - 0

USA will defeat Korea - 3 - 0 "thanks to Adu's goal which qualified Canada"

Group F final standings

Germany with 6 points

USA with 6 points

Paraguay with 3 points - 3 G/A finish in 3rd but not enough to qualify ot the next round with their -3 +/-

I still say they will be as many as two to three ties tommorrow specially the Japan vs egypt game and possibly the Col vs England game and also COte D'ivoire vs sAudi's. It wil come from group f you will see the tape is written!

AM i going nuts guys or just to much Tape watching! Or is it the expresso> Help!

[Natesta]

Just as an aside from someone watching the game, it's not like the Czechs were even close to threatening in the last 5-10 minutes. I think that is what rubbed me wrong about the time wasting.

I can just see it now, that goal we didn't go for will be our undoing.

(But I sure hope it's not)

[sstackho]

The early matches have started, in the 6th minute according to LiveScore. I think I'll trust that today, since I tried to use the FIFA MatchTracker yesterday, and it didn't even show Canada's goal and kept crashing my buggy browser...

[sstackho]

A quarter of the way through the first matches, according to LiveScore, and no goals to speak of. So far, so good for Canada.

In the early matches, we are cheering that England doesn't beat Columbia, and that Saudi Arabia doesn't beat the Ivory Coast. We are cheering for a lopsided victory for either team in the Korea - USA match, which doesn't seem to be happening just yet.