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Season end push is on in the CCC.


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Going to post this here as it relates to our lads in the English 1st.

For those of us who follow the 1st with some intersest you'll know it's getting onto March and into that traditional season-end push towards promotion or to escape the drop.

It's been a poor season for our lads throughout the division. One way or another at least.

The good news is that Ipswich still have a slim chance to make the playoffs. The side has won 4 of the last 6, drawn one and only just dropped the points away to Wolves on a late penalty. Doesn't mean a lot for us as JDV is retired and the in-again/out-again Peters is slowly adjusting to the speed, intensity and physical nature of the 1st, but it's still important. Haven't totaly written off JDV, and if Peters does have a future I feel it may be better served on the margins with a Premiership side than at the CCC level.

With Preston North End and Crystal Palace the clubs most likely to be caught for the final playoff spot Ipswich still have a steep hill to climb. They'll need to make up 12 points in 11 matchs but have an arguable advantage as far a schedules are concearned with matchs also remaining against both. Plus, Ipswich who've disappointed this campain, are on a roll. Here's to hoping it's not too little, too late.

This years oft injured, fun loving, and much admired Marc Bircham may yet have a go at winning through to the Prem. but it's pretty damned unlikely with Queen Park Rangers firmly mired in their traditional mid table possition.

Ian Hume has found his form of late and the Foxes look good to remain in the 1st this year. Hume may yet pull a disappointing Leicester season back into respectability with his rediscovered goal scoring ways but an early season favourate for a playoff spot isn't going anywhere this year. Still, a personal improvement for our Mr. Hume and one I'm sure which translates into easier household budgets for Mr. Hume, lovie, and their little one. A strong finish to the season may continue to keep Ian in the eye of some Big Fish. Maybe more of a personal advantage for Mr. Hume, but not without benefit to Leicester who've invested heavily in our wee man.

Journeyman Jim Brennan and his big, fat, bloated, contract has been dumped on Southhampton much to the relief of both JB and Norwich. The Saints look safe this year but must be in for some serious re-tooling before any real attempt at gaining promotion can happen. Good news is JB has become an instant regular, is getting playing time, and may make a case for resigning with Saints come seasons end. Brennan is the senior man when it comes to Canadian football with over 200 professional matchs to his credit and the honour of joining Paul Stalteri and Thomas Radzinski as the only active Canucks to have played EPL football.

Red Card Serioux may have left Millwall but Babyface Josh Simpson hasn't. Millwall look to be getting exactly what they deserve in the way of THE DROP. Simpson's contract may be up at seasons end and so might end Josh's Excellent European Adventure. At least for the time being. Still, good on him. England has improved his game and hopefully he can soilder through this rough patch and continue to live the dream.

Not much to say regarding the hot and cold Pesch. He's out of the NT picture and has gone over to the English anyway. Thanks for the memmories, health and happiness to you and yours and keep your stick on the ice.

Long I know, but feel free to add comments, corrections, disagreements or missed observations as you see fit. The funnest part of the season is upon us!

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Jimbo and Saints are anything but safe. It's been ages since they troubled an opposition goalie. Listening to various radio broadcasts and message boards, professional commentators and average saints supporters haven't overawed by JB's performances. I wish him luck at Saints cuz I'm a Saints fan and a JB fan.

There's a short snippet of him in the following clip:

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If there's one reliable force this time of year it's that teams at the bottom of the table rarely run out of it. If they do it's like more of a quick stumble. Your team was less bad then some others so you escape The Drop. At that end of the table points are very, very, hard to make up.

Saints may be only 3 clear of the zone but they've a favourable schedule compared to their rivals, a match in hand and they can bury Wednesday this weekend.

Even if they don't, Derby's a shambles and between Crewe, Brighton, Millwall and Derby there isn't a win to be found amongst any of them over each of their last six matchs.

Not a one!

Millwalls probably got the most favourable schedule of the bottom 7 clubs but too much ground to make up.

I stand by my prediction. Unless some saved-from-the-noose miracle strikes the danger zone, Saints are safe.

Re; JB, for a fellow who hasn't played squat this year he's probably gotten more on-field time since the transfer than in the 25 matchs before it. I'm sure he's getting stronger and more familiar with his surroundings each match and we'll see what the report is come season's end. Fingers and toes crossed.

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  • 3 weeks later...

It’s do-or-die week for Ipswich Town’s Jason de Vos (and who? Oh yeah, Jamie Peters I suppose). Ipswich who missed a great opportunity Saturday as they were only able to draw Millwall are off in opposite directions this week. First away to Preston North End on Tuesday and then down to Crystal Palace for Saturday’s fixture. By Saturday afternoon we’ll have a pretty clear picture of Ipswich's chances of making the playoffs.

Place--Games Played--Points(Goal Difference)--Next fixture

5). Crystal Palace 36 60(+17) @ Stoke Monday/Ipswich Sat.

6). Wolves 38 58(+12) @ Reading Sat.


7). Preston NE 36 57(+20) Ipswich Tue.

8). Cardiff 38 55(+6) @ Plymouth Sat.

9). Coventry 38 51(-1) Leeds Sat.

10).Ipswich 37 51(-6) @ PNE Tue./@ CP Sat.

11).Norwich 38 50(-7) Sheff United Sat.

12).Luton 38 48(-3) Derby Sat.

13).Plymouth 38 47(-7) Cardiff Sat.

14).QPR 37 47(-9) Brighton Sat.

Those off the table I'm humbly resigning to promotion, a playoff spot, or zero chance of making the playoffs.

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On the Crystal Palace message board, I have done a very geeky statistical analysis of the probability of promotion, playoffs or relegation for each squad in the CCC.

Thought I'd put it here as well. There's a strong chance Millwall are down, but it doesn't look like any other Canadians are going anywhere.


As a follow-up to my wildly nerdy thread from last season The Mathematical Probability of Survival (to two decimal places), I performed a similar analysis for the remainder of this season.

In an attempt to calculate the theoretical probability of automatic promotion or making the playoffs, I ran a simulation of the remaining games of the season.

I assign a probability for a home win, a draw and an away win in each match that remains in the calendar. For my initial analysis, I use the same odds for all matches, and I based it on the long-term approximate historical average in English top-flight football - the home team wins 50% of the time, they lose 25% of the time, and they draw 25% of the time. In other words, it does not take into account the strength of each team. In other words, Reading has as much chance to win their home matches as Brighton does. (This assumption may be tweaked in future runs.)

I then rank the teams at the end of the season by points to determine their final position for that iteration of the simulation. If needed, tiebreakers on goal differential are done by assuming each win is by a one-goal margin.

I run the simulation over 100,000 iterations.

Enough with the formalities - here are the results, current as of after the Preston/Ipswich match on Tuesday, 14 March 2006:

Crystal Palace - Automatic Promotion = 1.11%

Crystal Palace - Playoffs = 89.72%

Here's the breakdown by position in the end-of-season table for Palace:

1	0.00%

2	1.11%

3	5.03%

4	13.45%

5	41.49%

6	29.76%

7	7.38%

8	1.51%

9	0.25%

10	0.03%

11	0.01%

12	0.00%

Here are the results for the entire table:

Auto.	Play-	Rele-	

Prom.	offs	gation	

100.00%	0.00%	0.00%	Reading

68.22%	31.78%	0.00%	Sheff Utd

24.02%	75.91%	0.00%	Leeds

8.28%	91.29%	0.00%	Watford

1.11%	89.72%	0.00%	Crystal Palace

0.18%	76.09%	0.00%	Preston

0.00%	25.08%	0.00%	Wolverhampton

0.00%	6.20%	0.00%	Cardiff

0.00%	0.81%	0.00%	Coventry

0.00%	0.63%	0.00%	Ipswich

0.00%	0.44%	0.00%	Norwich

0.00%	0.05%	0.00%	Luton

0.00%	0.04%	0.01%	Plymouth

0.00%	0.13%	0.01%	QPR

0.00%	0.00%	0.19%	Stoke

0.00%	0.00%	0.60%	Leicester

0.00%	0.00%	0.28%	Burnley

0.00%	0.00%	0.88%	Southampton

0.00%	0.00%	1.61%	Derby

0.00%	0.00%	2.21%	Hull

0.00%	0.00%	39.08%	Sheff Wed

0.00%	0.00%	68.82%	Millwall

0.00%	0.00%	90.88%	Brighton

0.00%	0.00%	93.74%	Crewe

I should note that the Reading probability of automatic promotion is actually 99.998%. They can still be caught! :)

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Who is Ed the Ped?

It should be noted that Sheffield Wednesday face tougher opponents than Millwall down the stretch.



Pts	Team

49.3	Reading

51.6	Sheff Utd

55.4	Leeds

47.9	Watford

51.4	Crystal Palace

47.0	Preston

54.0	Wolverhampton

53.8	Cardiff

50.8	Coventry

48.0	Ipswich

52.0	Norwich

51.0	Luton

52.3	Plymouth

50.1	QPR

55.4	Stoke

54.5	Leicester

44.8	Burnley

50.6	Southampton

51.0	Derby

54.8	Hull

50.1	Sheff Wed

43.0	Millwall

44.8	Brighton

50.6	Crewe

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