Guest Dave Posted June 17, 2005 Share Posted June 17, 2005 As each new result affects our chances of advancing, I thought a thread on the various permutations and combinations was appropriate. Things are starting to become clearer. For one thing, the slim possibility that we could tie Italy and advance is now gone. We need to win. But winning is still not a guarantee. Two main chances to advance: Finish second or qualify from third place. I. Finish Second: We need to beat Italy (obviously), hope for Syria to lose, AND get a good goal diff. I honestly doubt that this Canadian team is capable of scoring more than one against Italy, so assuming a 1-0 Canadian win, we need Colombia to win by 3. (If they win by only two Syria gets the nod due to more goals scored). A three goal win by Colombia is entirely possible, but I hate to have to depend on it. Therefor I think our best chance is to qualify from third. II. Qualify from Third: Assuming we beat Italy (by any score) the odds here look reasonably good. Today's games are critical. If both Turkey-Ukraine and Morrocco-Chile don't end in ties, then a win over Italy will put us through. If one of these two games end in a tie, then we're still through provided that Netherlands beats or ties Benin on Saturday (still a good bet). The real problems start if both Turkey-Ukraine and Morrocco-Chile end in ties (this scenario is made more likely by the possibility of collaboration between the teams involved, since it would likely see them all qualify). In that case, our best bet would be to (once again) hope for the Dutch to beat or tie Benin, but we would also need some favourable results out of Brazil's or Argentina's group on Saturday, and this looks less likely. Of course, if we beat Italy by three we are in no matter what happens, but don't hold your breath waiting for that to happen! Bottom line: today's games are critical. I honestly beleive that we need one of Turkey-Ukraine and Morrocco-Chile to end in a non-tied result to have a realistic chance of advancing. Two non-tied results and a win over Italy will do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sstackho Posted June 17, 2005 Share Posted June 17, 2005 Good analysis. Too bad we can't get Fox Soccer Channel to watch the Turkey-Ukraine match... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massive Attack Posted June 17, 2005 Share Posted June 17, 2005 If both of the Turkey-Ukraine and Morocco-Chile matches end untied, Italy might try harder against us, as their chances of advancing will also increase. Especially if Turkey and Chile are the losers, as their goal differences are both zero at the moment. I think its pretty safe to say that the third place team in Group A will not have 4 points. The only way it could is if Benin beats Netherlands and there is a winner in the Australia-Japan match. This scenario is highly unlikely. In Group D, Germany beating Argentina would also ensure that the third place team would only have 3 points. Group F is a little more complicated, but it may not even matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dave Posted June 17, 2005 Share Posted June 17, 2005 OK, a win for Morrocco. We're halfway there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbachuck89 Posted June 17, 2005 Share Posted June 17, 2005 u mean a quarter way ...dont forget u still gotta beat italy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soju Posted June 17, 2005 Share Posted June 17, 2005 Hey who let the voice of reason into this thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Dave Posted June 17, 2005 Share Posted June 17, 2005 Of course we need to beat Italy, that's obvious. Would be nice if we know going in that 1-0 is sufficient. Thatt's what this thread is about. Ukraine just took the lead on Turkey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbachuck89 Posted June 17, 2005 Share Posted June 17, 2005 tie 2-2 between ukraine and turkey...damn it was an awesome game! u should watch the highlights if u can...especially the second ukrainian and turkish goals! but in group A...Benin would probably lose or if they are lucky tie with netherlands which leaves them with 3 points..then watever the outcome of the japan-australia match is the third place would have maximum of 3 points..so that will make up for the ukraine turkey game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alberto Posted June 17, 2005 Share Posted June 17, 2005 quote:Originally posted by Bubbachuck89 tie 2-2 between ukraine and turkey...damn it was an awesome game! u should watch the highlights if u can...especially the second ukrainian and turkish goals! but in group A...Benin would probably lose or if they are lucky tie with netherlands which leaves them with 3 points..then watever the outcome of the japan-australia match is the third place would have maximum of 3 points..so that will make up for the ukraine turkey game I am thinking that that there is a mistunderstanding! Am I mistaken but the 3rd place group advancements can only come form either BEF or CDE the best of these groups only will qualify to the next round. it is not the best overall of third place Group a does not come into this factor of third place Qualifying Is this correct or am i mistaken thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbachuck89 Posted June 17, 2005 Share Posted June 17, 2005 The top 4 3rd places qualify from any group Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodway Posted June 17, 2005 Share Posted June 17, 2005 My understanding is there will be 6 third place teams. The top 4 of those 6 will advance period! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alberto Posted June 17, 2005 Share Posted June 17, 2005 Well I just look on the web site of fifa.com I read it that a 3rd place team will only have two chances to qualify game number 37 the best of third place out of the groups B E and F and game number 42 the best of C D AND E. In the game number 37 group B Turkey finished in third with 4 points and a plus/minus of 0 result is the team to catch waiting the result of group E and F tommorrow In the other for game number 42 Chile has finhished 3rd with 3 points and a plus/minus of -1. waiting for results from group D and E tommorrow. Is this right or wrong. I hope this is right as i read it anyone know for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Massive Attack Posted June 17, 2005 Share Posted June 17, 2005 Alberto, the 4 best 3rd place teams advance, regardless of which group they are in. The chart at the bottom of this link explains who plays who, depending on the 4 best 3rd place teams: http://fifa.com/en/media/index/0,1369,107673,00.html?articleid=107673 The 3rd place team in Group E will play the first place team in Group A or Group D. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Breakwood Posted June 17, 2005 Share Posted June 17, 2005 We can hope for a Japan-Australia draw tomorrow. both teams have 1 point so far so a draw gives them both 2pts. Also if Germany beats Argentina it will keep Argentina at 3 points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJT Posted June 17, 2005 Share Posted June 17, 2005 quote:Originally posted by Alberto I read it that a 3rd place team will only have two chances to qualify game number 37 the best of third place out of the groups B E and F and game number 42 the best of C D AND E. Massive Attack's link is the most thorough answer, but I know you're looking at this page. You're right about games 37 and 42, but you missed games 40 and 44. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbachuck89 Posted June 18, 2005 Share Posted June 18, 2005 Hard Luck guys and congrats to Italy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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