FWIW, Our Chances for the HEX

[gkhs]

If we assume all outcomes (W L D) are equally likely in every match (which they clearly aren't).

With a victory at Honduras, 23 of 81 possible outcomes would see Canada level or better on points; 14 of 81 permutations would see Canada ahead, 9 level (making goal differential key).

With a draw at Honduras, 3 of 81 possible outcomes see Canada level or better; 1 ahead, 2 level.

With a loss at Honduras, chances are nil.

http://untothedogs.blogspot.com/2008/10/canada-v-honduras-thoughts-in-advance.html