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FWIW, Our Chances for the HEX


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If we assume all outcomes (W L D) are equally likely in every match (which they clearly aren't).

With a victory at Honduras, 23 of 81 possible outcomes would see Canada level or better on points; 14 of 81 permutations would see Canada ahead, 9 level (making goal differential key).

With a draw at Honduras, 3 of 81 possible outcomes see Canada level or better; 1 ahead, 2 level.

With a loss at Honduras, chances are nil.


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