In fact, not only is the game not must-win, were the Reds to succeed in defeating the Lions, there is the very real possibility that the Eastern Conference playoff race could be close to wrapped up as a practical matter by the end of the weekend.
Montreal face Philadelphia at home on Satuday evening, and will look at that match as a great chance to put distance between themselves and the pack as well. Having tied Columbus in midweek, New York City have to travel across the continent to face a red hot LA Galaxy team on Sunday. Chicago’s draw in Philadelphia last weekend left their playoff hopes on life support, and even a win over league-worst Colorado would not change that status.
By Sunday evening Toronto may have opened up a six-point gap, with all of the teams below them having eight or fewer games left to play. That doesn’t sound insurmountable, but when you look at the sort of sustained points-per-game it would take to close, it’s actually quite a mountain. To even make a lowly figure like 42 points, NYCFC and Orlando would need to sustain a 1.75 points-per-game the rest of the season. That’s better than the league’s best teams have managed so far. And 42 points might not be enough, as that would require Montreal or Toronto to collapse to a 1.00 PPG or lower during their last 12 and 10 games, respectively.
Even if Toronto FC were to lose this weekend, their situation would be far from catastrophic. Set to conclude the season with a home-heavy schedule, they just need to win games, and will have seven more chances to pick up points at BMO before November. Pessimism and TFC may go hand-in-hand, but this time even Toronto’s pessimistic fans should keep in mind the reasons for pessimism that exist in other MLS markets.
But yes, simply for psychological reasons, TFC could use a win. Debates about goalkeepers, formations, and underperforming designated players won’t go away, that much is certain. But they may lose the existential edge they develop when the team is losing. Someone predicting that this time, surely this losing streak must be the end of Toronto FC, is another long tradition of discussion around the team. Avoiding that, for at least a week, has value in and of itself.
*The collapse is not actually annual. Toronto FC collapses in their good years. In poor ones, they’re just terrible all season.