There’s still a long way to go, however, if Toronto is going to at last overcome the albatross that hangs around their neck, and finally make the playoffs. Currently in fourth place in the standings, optimists will point to the fact that TFC currently has the second highest points-per-game in the Eastern Conference. Considered in light of the team’s road-heavy start to the season this implies that the team is not only doing well, but could actually get better.
For such a result to occur, however, the Reds have to convert home games into wins. So far, that hasn’t always been automatic, and the team actually has one more road win than home wins. Even accounting for the larger number of road games played, it’s remarkable how close the home and away record are. Toronto is 4W-1D-4L on the road, and 3W-0D-2L at home. Another home loss, and those records become close to undistinguishable.
But really, there’s no reason for Toronto FC to lose this weekend. Yes, DC United currently lead the East with a barely credible 10 point advantage over second placed New England. Yet, only three weeks ago, on the first day of the Women’s World Cup co-incidentally, TFC took full points off United at RFK Stadium. There’s no reason they shouldn’t be able to repeat the feat at home.
How DC are managing to stay so far ahead of the pack has been something of a mystery since the season began. It’s not that analysts expected them to be poor – United finished first in the Conference last year, and were expected to be a comfortable playoff team – it’s just that the scale of their lead, and ability to just keep winning, seems to defy the rules of regression to the mean.
United are a team of true few out and out stars, but a great many solid performers who are often MLS stalwarts. While Perry Kitchen and keeper Bill Hamid may yet emerge as U.S. Men’s National Team regulars neither has reached that level yet. Their leading scorer Chris Rolfe has had a long and successful career, but never hit double-figures for goals in a season. Captain Davy Arnaud will be familiar to anyone who has followed MLS since TFC joined the league, but it’s worth noting that he was traded to an expansion year Montreal team four full years ago. And names like DeLeon, Pontius, Korb, and, instructively for Toronto fans, Silva show that it’s still quite possible to build depth through the draft.
So while they may not have the sort of names that help sell jerseys or encourage interested casuals to grab tickets for their road games, DC are a deep enough squad that they were able to rest most starters in their midweek victory in Toronto. That’s a luxury incredible rare in MLS, and probably best explains why they’re a team that is sure to be there, playing games that matter, at the end of the season.
None of that should discourage Toronto fans. It’s a different model than that TFC has adopted, but it shows what’s possible in MLS. Ultimately, it should be exactly what fans want: a league where there are different ways to be successful, and clubs can chart a path of their own choosing. And it’s finally starting to look like one of those teams can be Toronto FC.