Consider that in 2014, Toronto FC defeated the eventually Supporter’s Shield winners, the Seattle Sounders, away from home in their first game. They defeated D.C. United, who would go on to finish first in the Eastern Conference, a week later. There was a historic nine points from nine versus their old rivals, the Columbus Crew. Yet the Reds still missed the playoffs.
This year, though wobbly, Toronto looks like a playoff team in a weak Eastern Conference. They won, away, at the current Western Conference leading Vancouver Whitecaps on opening day, then proceeded to lose four matches in a row, including to a dire Chicago side. A win at, once again, East-leading DC United was followed by a loss at home to an expansion team.
You can’t simply look at who the Reds are playing and confidently state: “This game should be a win, and that one a loss.” Results will happen, and if TFC can keep stumbling along just a little bit better than the bottom half of their conference, they’ll be playing in November for the first time ever.
The corollary to a loss to the Red Bulls not being automatic is that a win won’t mean that Toronto is about to storm on to the Supporter’s Shield title. It’s not just this one match that is impossible to predict, it’s the rest of the Reds’ season. Winning the Shield is probably less likely than missing the playoffs, but neither outcome is inconceivable, or even totally improbable.
Again: results will happen. There will be surprises; results that are not anticipated. A couple good ones in sequence, and things will seem to be on the up. Poor ones, and the #TFCMajorAnnouncement hashtag will be lurking in the back of fans’ heads again.
So rather than trying to divine the future, concentrate on the game. The Jays are rightfully getting all the attention in Toronto at the moment. But the Reds’ are playing meaningful matches in mid-August too. There have been lots of seasons where that wasn’t the case.
Toronto’s new signing, Herculez Gomez, has completed his transfer and travelled with the team to New Jersey. Benoit Cheyrou has returned from suspension, and will see the field with Michael Bradley ahead of him for the first time in weeks. Doubts over who should be starting in goal linger, but most of the side is reaching the point where it picks itself.
This is Toronto FC. This is the team that will see out the season, and either succeed in making the playoffs for the first time, or just add another notch to the club’s history of misery. But one game in New Jersey will not decide that.