Sitting fourth in the East at the start of August is respectable. Particularly by Toronto standards. With games in hand against two of the teams ahead of them, and lots of home games to come, TFC should be expected to, at least, maintain a points-per-game that will ease them into a playoff position.
Wins have been hard to come by, however, with only one in the last five league games. This, like the shaky defence, has been masked by the excitement of the offence TFC is generating. The inability to turn draws into wins was Ryan Nelsen’s downfall last summer. Ominously, it was a disaster versus the Revs, at home and later in the month of August, that precipitated his dismissal.
Greg Vanney, in comparison, seems secure. Earlier this season I argued that nothing he had accomplished in his short time in-charge demanded absolute loyalty, should a better candidate be available. At the same time, however, nothing demanded that TFC relieve him of his duties and appoint a replacement.
Sometime in the last month that situation changed. While many Reds supporters may disagree, and harbour doubts about Vanney’s contribution to the team’s success, it has become obvious that the club has now reached the point where change would be more disruptive than the likely gains from another leadership revolution. Vanney is approaching a year in the position of head coach and, unlike the situation in spring, stability and continuity now have value in and of themselves.
TFC’s opponents are in a more precarious position. After a strong start to the season, the Revolution have been sliding down the standings all summer. Like Toronto, they’ve only won one game out of their last five, but have been losing more than they draw in that stretch as well. Nominally tied on points with Toronto in the standings, New England has played four more games and are into the final third of their season. A dismal 1.22 PPG would see them just make the playoffs, other things being equal, but with expansion sides Orlando and New York City making moves for the second half the season, the Revs are looking over their shoulder at a closing pack.
Like Toronto, goal scoring isn’t as much of a problem for Jay Heaps’ side as keeping the ball out of the net is. The Revs’ total of 35 goals against is currently the second highest in the league. Matched up against TFC’s potent offense, it would seem to invite a potential rout.
Such an outcome shouldn’t be taken for granted. Heaps is certainly capable of looking at Toronto’s recent performances and realizing that New England’s first priority must be stifling the Reds attack. If the Revs attempt to kill the game, would anyone find it untypical of soccer for a high-scoring team to visit one of the league’s most porous defenses, only for the game to turn into a lifeless 0 – 0 bore?
A couple months ago a draw at Gillette Stadium, against a team above them in the standings, was regarded as a decent result for Toronto. While a repeat would not be a disaster, and would keep New England behind them in the standings, TFC must have greater ambitions during this visit. Wins are what will keep Toronto in the hunt for a top-two finish in the East, and this is a winnable game.