You’re going to be hearing a lot about Soccernomics, the breakthrough study of soccer numbers by Simon Kuper (Soccer Against the Enemy) and economist Stefan Szymanski.
If you’re interested in the nuts and bolts of why games are won and lost, and which clubs and nations are likeliest to prevail, just race right out and grab a copy now.
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I have almost half an entire bookshelf devoted to Bill James, the legendary baseball stats wizard who changed every thinking person’s approach to baseball by actually counting everything up, and inventing new stats – on-base percentage – that actually correlated directly with on-field success.
Soccer, of course, doesn’t have nearly as many stats – but high-data computer programs like ProZone are already changing that.
Kuper and Szymanski have broader statistical models – population, national wealth, international soccer experience – that neatly predict which nations should win, which can’t and … fascinatingly … which over- and underachieve.
Canada – bless us, every one! – turns out to be one of the most underachieving soccer nations on the planet. England – confirming the honest, outspoken fears of many – consistently wins more than it is entitled to.
There’s far too much in this thrilling book to deal with in one go, so here’s a couple of juicy tidbits to chew on:
- Spending money on salaries definitely wins soccer games. Splashing out on transfer fees does not.
- Outrunning your opponents doesn’t win. Outsprinting them does.
- Spending big money on managers – does not win trophies.
Okay, that’s a lot of bar fights that just started. While the inexorable drift of Soccernomics is that bigger is better, the book does hold out an intoxicating hope for fans like myself who want to see brilliant, gifted smaller teams win trophies now and then.
When Olympique Lyon dominated French soccer for most of the past decade, they had four different managers, and didn’t splash out a lot on transfer fees. They scouted really well, and gobbled up under-valued young prospects who could just flat play the game of soccer. Michael Essien, anybody?
And you don’t get sentimental about these players, either. When the world comes knocking with its chequebooks swaying, you sell – for every last franc, farthing or flapdoodle seed you can pocket. By then, you already have your next unknown stars in the reserve team.
Interestingly, this is almost exactly the model Brian Clough used to lift tiny Nottingham Forest to consecutive European Cup titles in 1979 and 1980. Interestingly, Forest’s decline set in soon after they broke the world transfer record to land Trevor Francis. They still conquered Europe, but precious hot air was gushing out of the balloon by then.
It would be easy for a fan of small teams to be gloomy reading this book, because the numbers seem to be sliding so inexorably towards the super rich. But just as Bill James opened the door for the Oakland Athletics to underspend and outperform the mightiest franchises in baseball, so does Soccernomics show the way for brilliant sides like Olympique Lyon.
As the message spreads, young genius managers will arise. And well-constructed, trophy-grabbing minnows will soon be swimming with blind, directionless sharks.
Onward!