Last Wednesday and Friday, I examined the opening six seasons of every expansion team in North America’s four biggest sports leagues (NHL, MLB, NFL, NBA) since 1967, seeking perspective for the chronic, ongoing struggles of Toronto FC.
That's 57 teams, and what I found actually shocked me.
Assuming that Toronto FC does not pull off a miracle, they will almost certainly join the deeply non-illustrious group of teams that missed the playoffs six years in a row out of the gate. That, we all know.
In itself, that isn’t fatal. The parallel that might most warm the hearts of long-suffering TFC supporters is that of the Portland Trail Blazers of the NBA. They missed the playoffs in each of their first six seasons, falling back badly in year six. They won a championship the very next year, and were a playoff team 27 times in the next 28 seasons.
An unlikely beacon of hope, perhaps. But it happened.
To really make the point, though, let’s examine the lack of fortune of Toronto FC, directly compared to the worst six-year expansion starts in each of the four leagues.
[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]
Washington Capitals (NHL): Over six full 80-game seasons, beginning in 1974, the Capitals served up a winning percentage of just .305. They tacked on two more dismal seasons before finally making the playoffs in year nine.
Seattle Mariners (MLB): Yes, they now hold the record for most wins in a regular season, 116. But before that, they opened their existence with fourteen losing seasons in a row. Their six-year win percentage seems unexpectedly high, at .399. Remember, though, that baseball is a spot where even teams that lose 100 times a season still win 38 per cent of the time. .399 over six years is truly, truly, bad.
New Orleans Saints (NFL): Two full decades without playoff football. Winning percentage over the first six seasons was a paltry .256.
Vancouver Grizzlies (NBA): In six full seasons on the West Coast of Canada, the Grizzlies’ winning percentage was an utterly laughable .220.
So now, for comparison purposes, will you welcome Your Toronto FC!!!!!
Toronto FC (MLS): Counting only MLS matches, the first five full seasons of TFC add up to 40 wins, 67 losses and 47 draws. That’s a winning percentage of .412. That’s bad, but not epic.
Add in this season – 2-10-3 at time of writing – and it drops to .396. That’s on a par with the Mariners, and well clear of the Caps, Saints and Grizz.
And yes, TFC has been a good cup team – well about .500 – but most of that was wins over minor-league competition. And, as you’re about to discover, wins on the field is not the only thing we’re tracking here.
A little soccer perspective, before we draw conclusions:
North American soccer has no parallel to what TFC has done here. No other MLS side has ever missed the playoffs five years in a row, let alone a possible sixth. Remember also that MLS is a salary cap league, which has often boasted parity to the point of parody.
Four North American expansion teams – the Philadelphia Atoms, Los Angeles Aztecs and Tampa Bay Rowdies of the old NASL, and the Chicago Fire in MLS – have won championships in their first season. In the old days, no bad NASL team could ever survive long enough to miss six-straight racks of playoffs.
In all the rest of the world of soccer, Toronto FC is impossible. Relegation would rip any franchise to shreds before it ever got half this futile.
So, yes, Toronto FC has been consistently, relentlessly bad on the field. But what about the front office?
Here’s the stat that surprised me – the one that puts Toronto FC squarely in the conversation with the very worst of the worst.
Number of head coaches used in first six seasons:
Washington Capitals – 6
Seattle Mariners – 3
New Orleans Saints – 2
Vancouver Grizzlies – 5
Toronto FC – 7 (in under 5.5 seasons)
The Capitals are actually a screaming exception to the rule. Most bad expansion teams have three, maybe four coaches. The Tampa Bay Lightning of the NHL, who had just one brief, pointless playoff run in their first six years, had only one.
Any team, anywhere, can go through three head coaches in six years. Even championship sides can go through four.
A seventh coach in a sixth season is pretty much unprecedented in top-flight North American sport in the last 45 years. I only zoomed in on the bad teams in their first six years, so if any team actually accomplished this, they were either well established, or winning at the same time.
Yes, TFC does better on the field than the other sides we’ve isolated. But please understand, we’re comparing them to the worst of the worst, one from each league, for damn near half a century. Finishing atop that group don’t win you any trophies.
When you combine win percentage with the seasick-making revolving door of managers, Toronto FC clearly stands as one of the absolute worst expansion teams on the entire continent – since before the significant majority of its supporters were born.
And through all that time and all those setbacks, all those losses and all those strange hirings and signings, the one single constant at the top has been the ownership group:
Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment.
Much, much more to follow.
Onward!