Six years down the road, where would you want an expansion team in a North American professional sports league to be?
Champions?
Contenders?
Consistent playoff trouble-makers?
Blowing back-to-back two-goal leads for a head coach with only 30 games’ experience, just one win in thirteen outings, never having been in the post-season, never having been anything better than mediocre, and only even attaining mediocrity for short, dying, sputtering stretches?
There’s more to this than what’s on the field, Toronto FC fans. But before we go after the suits, let’s do some honest comparison.
I’m going to explore what every expansion team in the continent’s four biggest leagues did in its first six years, going back to 1967. I’ll start today with the National Hockey League.
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Los Angeles Kings (1967): Despite back-dooring their way into the Stanley Cup semifinals in year two, the year-six Kings missed the playoffs for the fourth time in a row.
Minnesota North Stars (1967): In year six, the North Stars went 37-30-11, and lost in the opening round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. By then, they had been in the playoffs five years out of six, and lost two semifinal series.
Oakland Seals (1967): Personally, I loved them. Sure wouldn’t want to have been them, though. Year six saw them (on white kangaroo-skin skates) eighth and last in the NHL West, with only three playoff wins in two futile appearances.
Philadelphia Flyers (1967): Middling playoff runs for the first six seasons. Won the Stanley Cup in years seven and eight.
Pittsburgh Penguins (1967): The Penguins were bad. Just two playoff runs in their first six years. They did get to the semis once, but mostly because they drew Oakland in the quarters. Very drab. Better than TFC, though.
St. Louis Blues (1967): Three Stanley Cup finals appearances in their first three seasons, but they lost all 12 games in three straight sweeps by Montreal, Boston and Montreal. Mediocre in year six, they still made the playoffs.
Buffalo Sabres (1970): After losing the Stanley Cup final to Philadelphia in year five, they fell back a bit the following season.
Vancouver Canucks (1970): No playoffs for four years, two meek first-round exits after that. It would take over a decade before this team made any real impression at all. Still better than TFC.
Atlanta Flames (1972): The future Calgarians made the playoffs for the fourth time in their sixth year. Total playoff record? 1-10.
New York Islanders (1972): Worst team in history out of the gate, semifinalists in years three, four and five. Stepped back in six, but soon won four Stanley Cups in a row.
Kansas City Scouts (1974): Who? Utterly horrible team that moved to Colorado, made the playoffs in year five, didn’t win a game, and were out again in year six. Strong, strong TFC parallels here. These days, they’re the New Jersey Devils, and have three championships.
Washington Capitals (1974): Replaced the Islanders as the worst team in history. Missed the playoffs eight years in a row. First team on the list clearly worse than TFC.
Edmonton Oilers (1979): Bit of an odd case, because 1979 was more of a merger than a pure expansion. The Oilers got to keep Wayne Gretzky when the WHA was absorbed by the NHL. Anyhoo, in year six they won their second Stanley Cup. Three more were on the way. All-time greatest expansion team – ever!
Hartford Whalers (1979): After getting iced in the opening playoff round in year one, the Whalers missed the playoffs five years in a row. Awful – but one more playoff appearance than The Reds.
Quebec Nordiques (1979): Lost in the semis in year six, as they had in year three. There would be dire drought years ahead. This team was nowhere near as good as people seem to remember.
Winnipeg Jets (1979): Went 43-27-10 in year six, and were a consistent playoff team. Never won the big one, but Jets fans had plenty to be happy about.
San Jose Sharks (1991): Very bad in years five and six, but had two stirring playoff runs before that.
Ottawa Senators (1992): Out of the playoffs and awful for four long years. By year six they were in the conference semifinal, and became a consistent playoff team for more than a decade.
Tampa Bay Lightning (1992): Year six found the Voltbolts mired in a decade of dire futility, with only one single losing playoff series in year four to break the gloom. Very similar to TFC – but actually more stable! They had the same coach (Terry Crisp) for all of their first six years.
Anaheim Ducks (1993): Were swept in the quarterfinals in year six, but also had a conference semi appearance in year four.
Florida Panthers (1993): Missed the playoffs for the fourth time in their sixth season. Bad, but mitigated slightly by their trip to the Stanley Cup finals in year three. (Maybe just a titch better than four Voyageurs Cups, n’est pas?)
Nashville Predators (1998): Made the playoffs for the first time in year six, and got iced early. Very TFC like – except they’ve had only one head coach (Barry Trotz) for their entire history. Consistent playoff team now.
Atlanta Thrashers (1999): Missed the playoffs six years in a row, and it was actually seven because year six never happened due to the NHL lockout. They had three coaches in those years, by the way – less than half of TFC’s total.
Columbus Blue Jackets (2000): Have made the playoffs only once – in year eight. Wouldn’t it be just like TFC to find their closest soul-mate … in Columbus?
Minnesota Wild (2000): Made the playoffs in year six, their second appearance following a conference-final run in year three.
That’s a total of twenty-five franchises, and only three missed the playoffs their first six seasons. And none of those fired as many coaches as Toronto FC.
Does that give you a eerie sense of just how bad the Toronto soccer situation might really be, historically?
We’ll throw in the NFL, NBA and Major League Baseball next.
Onward!