When reading reaction to the expansion draft I came across more than a few comments about how strikers that struggle in Toronto do well elsewhere. While there is evidence to suggest that’s true, part of the perception (particularly among TFC fans themselves) comes from an unrealistic expectation of how many goals a good MLS striker gets.
I saw one Vancouver fan suggest that O’Brian White would get 12 goals next year now that he’s out of Toronto’s grasp.
We all wish White luck (particularly those in Seattle, where he has been traded to after Vancouver picked him in the expansion draft), but 12 goals might be a tad bit excitable as a prediction.
It might be useful to draw a comparison to a league that most Canadians know more about. Once again, let’s talk hockey.
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In the 2010 MLS season there was an average of 2.46 goals scored a game. In the 2009-10 NHL season the average goals per game was 5.67. So, there are 230 per cent more goals scored per NHL game than per MLS game. To come up with a rough apples to apples comparison of what a 10 goal MLS season would be equitable to in the NHL we have to do a bit of math.
(Goals scored x230%) /30 x 82 -33%
If that makes no sense to you what I’m doing is I’m increasing the MLS player’s goals to a number that is in line with the amount of scoring that you typically see in the NHL. Then I’m converting that total into a goal per game number over the 30 game MLS season. Then I’m multiplying it by the length of an NHL season. To top it off, I’m adjusting the number by 33 per cent to reflet that a soccer game is 90 minutes compared to a 60 minute hockey game. The final number is the WICBS number (What if Chad Barrett Skated).
Using that formula a 10 goal MLS season is equal to 42.12 goals by an NHL player. Even if the Vancouver poster was calculating the four game increase to the schedule a 10 goal season is still roughly equitable to a 37.17 NHL goals. White’s predicted 12 goal season works out to 44.60 NHL goals.
The top goal scorer in the NHL last year Steven Stamkos and Sidney Crosby with 51. Only four players had more than 42 (as an aside, you can reverse my formula to get the WISCPF number – 12.5, by the way)
The namesake of my new stat (are you reading MLSsoccer.com?) had a WICBS number of 29 – he must have just missed that bonus.
A few other notables:
Chris Wondolowski – 75.82
Edson Buddle - 71.61
DeRo – 63.19
O’Brian White – 8.43
So the Vancouver predictor thinks Tyler Bozak would become Patrick Marleau if he could just get out of Toronto.