A lot of fans dismiss Canada’s relevance in FIFA. They are looking at things through a naïve viewpoint though. The truth is that the CSA has become a very effective voice at both CONCACAF and FIFA levels. Canada has lived up to the infamous “middle power” label that Lester B Pearson so loved (and won a Nobel Peace Prize by effectively being) – American-like, without being American -- and by doing so Canada has quietly put itself in very good position to land 2026.
It’s here when I can practically hear the condescending laughter. Don’t you know Canada sucks? CFL stadiums aren’t big enough! Canada hosting is absurd!!
Those voices are making the classic mistake of assuming that World Cups are awarded on merit. They're not. They are awarded politically and Canada’s political game is what makes Canada 2026 credible.
As 2022 has shown us, FIFA can put up with a hell of lot bigger deficits in a bid than what Canada does or does not offer.
However, for 20 years, being effective politically has meant being able/willing to work with and in Sepp’s world. Making an enemy of him was to effectively give up on ever getting anything from FIFA again.
And, that’s why Canada voted for Blatter in 2011.
So, why change now, just two years out of the 2026 bid?
It’s a good question.
One possible answer is that Canada truly does believe it’s the ethical thing to do, consequences be damned (although it likely helps that the other serious challengers for 2026 might vote against him as well).
Or, it could mean that they sensed a change in the air. If Blatter’s power has been eroded then it might be safe to stand against him.
It’s unlikely he will lose. Africa still is almost all in his corner, as is much of the Caribbean and Asia. The one nation, one vote format of FIFA favours Blatter immensely (and is key to understanding how the culture of corruption has evolved). However, it is possible for Blatter to win the election but do so in such a way that he’s been neutered.
In fact, it’s difficult to see how Blatter escapes this week without losing his influence, if not his actual job.
Canada may feel that it has already done enough of the dirty work needed to get the votes to host 2026 without Blatter. The CSA could also assume that the political climate wouldn’t change all that much even if Blatter is gone.
The latter point may be cynical, but it could also be the closest to reality. Real change at FIFA won’t happen quickly, and certainly not before 2017.
The vote should take place around 3:30am ET Friday morning. Set your alarms.