Imagine the scene. Sepp Blatter steps up to the microphone sometime Thursday. Across America soccer fans hold their breath. It’s come down to this – Australia versus the United States on the final ballot.
“The host of the 2022 World Cup is (pause for effect) The Uni...”
The rest is lost in a wave of noise. Don Garber can be seen hugging Bill Clinton. Grown men are crying. Only premium members can access BigSoccer. The dream has become a reality. The World Cup is coming back to North America.
[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] You can imagine that there will be a lot of screams of joy here in Canada as well if the United States wins the bid. Not only does the geography make a trip to the event seem more than possible, but on the surface it seems like an American World Cup would benefit Canada in more tangible ways than just good vacation ideas.
Would it though? Clearly, a USA World Cup wouldn’t hurt the game here and it’s OK to want the US to win for selfish I-wanna-go-to-it reasons, but is there evidence that the benefits are that significant.
Let’s examine them.
The biggest argument for Canadian benefit is that an American World Cup will make MLS stronger and a stronger MLS makes for a stronger Canadian game. That’s true to a point. With three teams in MLS, Canada does have a stake, clearly. However, recent changes in the Canadian quota rules indicate that Canada is a business partner, more than a soccer partner.
It is true that an increase in soccer revenues could allow for the Canadian teams to spend more on players, which, in turn could increase the overall popularity of the sport here. It all adds up.
But would having the World Cup in the United States help MLS though? It’s not as clear an answer as many think. It seems like it would have to, but that said it’s hard to articulate how. The sport already has a good degree of visibility. It’s not 1975 anymore. Americans know what soccer is and they have decided what they think about it. And many think that they like the EPL more than MLS. Would having a big tournament 12 years from now really make that much difference – particularity for the next eight years or so? It’s not clear.
Another argument that comes up when people talk about Canada getting a trickle-up (as in up north) benefit from the World Cup is an increase in media coverage. Many Canadian sports fans only get their information from American media sources. If those sources wake up to the sport then those Canadians will be exposed to soccer. They might then realize that it’s being played in Canada.
There is, sadly, truth to this as well, but again the true affect isn’t likely to kick in for another eight years.
The last argument that gets made is that having the USA in the World Cup could, in theory, make it easier for the Canadian team to actually qualify. CONCACAF could get an extra spot.
Just as soon as Canada demonstrates that it can consistently finish in the top five in qualifying, we can start to take that argument seriously.
Is it possible that Canada might be negatively affected by a USA win?
Yes, but only if you believe in the possibility of Canada undertaking its own bid one day. A USA bid would take that off the table until at least 2034, probably later. Although many people dismiss the possibility of a Canadian bid, it’s not that farfetched. FIFA likes to go into virgin countries as a legacy and Canada is a rich nation that could afford to host a first class tournament. Yes, we lack the stadiums. Now. That can be fixed.
A pipedream isn’t enough of a reason for a Canadian to cheer against the US bid. The benefits to Canada are overstated, but not without some truth. However, if another country's name is read out Thursday the CSA should seriously think about the possibilities of a 2026 or 2030 bid.
For too long this country has relied on others to get by in the sport. Hosting a World Cup is an outlandish idea for a country the size of Canada, but so is hosting an Olympics and we’ve done that three times.
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