It was so bad that it’s almost pointless to try and break things down. They sucked. That’s kind of the bottom line.
However, we will endeavor to look at why.
The easy answer is it was the centre-backs. If you plug a MLS all-star quality CB into the mix then things would be much better, is a common message board topic. That’s clearly correct. It’s also something pretty much every other MLS team is looking to do. The reality is that CBs are not easy to find within a MLS salary cap system.
In fact, TFC’s problem might be that they swing for the fences a little too much when it comes to CBs.
What they need aren’t necessarily superstars. They need competence. They need meat and potatoes. They need guys that can do a job and complement the higher skilled players they have around them.
Let’s look at the specifics:
There were five guys that played significant minutes at CB last year that might be back in 2015. The instinct of many might be to throw them all out and start over, but that’s not something that is realistically going to happen.
So, who do you keep? Let’s look at some numbers. As always we have used Whoscored.com figures.
Whoscored rating –
1. Josh Williams 6.89
2. Damien Perquis 6.88
3. Nick Hagglund 6.86
4. Eriq Zaveleta 6.68
5. Ahmed Kantari 6.62
As I suggested above, the plumber is outperforming the two artists that were brought in for big bucks (although Perquis is pretty close).
Tackles per 90 – fouls
1. Williams 1.2
2. Zavaleta 1.1
3. Kantari 0.4
4. Hagglund 0
5. Perquis -0.1
This stat looks at the overall benefit a defender brings through tackles. It’s a rough figure (total successful tackles minus total fouls) but it’s a rough idea.
Look who is on top again. The bottom probably doesn’t shock many of you as it was pretty clear that Perquis struggled with that part of his game.
Interceptions + blocks
1. Williams 5.1
2. Perquis 4.1
3. Hagglund 3.4
4. Kantari 3.3
5. Zavaleta 2.5
How often a defender breaks up play successfully. This is starting to look like a trend.
Aerial wins
1. Hagglund 2.7
2. Perquis 2.3
3. Williams 1.9
4. Zavaleta 1.7
5. Kantari 1.5
Come on, Ahmed? Of note: Hagglund’s number would have ranked him in the top 10 in the league had he played enough minutes.
Passing percentage
1. Williams 88.3%
2. Perquis 81.3%
3. Zavaleta 77.3%
4. Hagglund 75.7%
5. Sigh 75.5%
Quick observation before we throw up some comparable. Kantari is an absolute failure on both the eye ball test (everyone pretty much wants him gone) and the numbers. Releasing him is an easy decision.
We’ll get to the other four after a couple league-wide numbers.
First, let’s look at the top end.
Matt Miazga is undoubtedly the best defender value signing in the league. Just 20, he’s among the best defenders in MLS and will likely have a long career playing for far more defensively competent teams than TFC.
He also has no cap hit. The Red Bulls developed him in their academy. No wonder they won the Supporters Shield.
Miazga’s numbers?
Whoscored -- 7.49
Tack-Fouls -- 1.1
Block+Int -- 3.8
Air -- 4.5
Pass% -- 75%
What’s interesting is that the numbers aren’t that far removed from TFC’s top CB’s. They are just consistently solid (with one exceptional skill – aerial battles). The difference is he’s free. He basically gives you Perquis stats for literally 100% less cap hit.
Let’s take a look at an unfancied player. Randomly, we decided to look at former TFC punching bag Arron Maund.
Whoscored -- 6.89
Tack-Fouls -- 0.8
Block+Int -- 3.3
Air – 2.6
Pass% -- 73.6%
Meh. But, not shocking. And, at a fraction of the cost of either of Toronto’s big money defender signings.
This is a small sample size, but it does suggest that throwing big salaries at players with pretty resumes isn’t necessarily better than developing your own defenders or looking for journeymen. This possibility is underlined by the fact that Josh Williams was Toronto’s best defender statistically last year.
So, what do I take away from this from a TFC 2016 perspective? Kantari needs to go and Williams is a nice piece. For the sake of consistency (and some decent offensive metrics) I’d give Perquis another year. Zavaleta might be btter suited for the NASL and Hagglund’s noggin is worth keeping around. Maybe play him at TFC2 a bit.
Another piece is needed. That’s clear. Shop (relatively) locally.
Not going for a huge signing at the back might be in conflict with most people’s thinking, but the value just isn’t there.
Instead use that extra cash saved from dumping Kantari to sign a true No 6 – and this is the worst example of burying the lead in history. What went really wrong with TFC in 2016 is they didn’t support the back-line, not that the back-line was incapable.