Making things even more frustrating for MLS fans desperate for information is that both sides are being tight-lipped. Whereas in 2010, you couldn't take a free kick in your beer league without hitting an agent looking to give you off-record info, this year it has been mostly quiet.
Michael Bradley said free agency was the hill the players would die on. Salt Lake owner Dell Loy Hansen responded by telling Bradley and the players they should get busy dying then because free agency was a non starter. He was fined $150,000 for his efforts, a figure higher than 61% of the players on RSL made last season.
Other than those black and white positions, not much else has trickled out. That's caused people to conclude that we are looking at a 50/50 chance of a work stoppage.
It says here it's higher than that.
Although, as said, it's hard to get solid information about the negotiations, what info we are getting suggests two sides that aren't bending. The owners (and many fans) may feel that the players don't make enough money to afford a strike, but that position ignores the possibility that they have planned for a stoppage and it dismisses the idea that the players are willing to sacrifice for what they believe in.
Still, it is true that the majority of these players aren't rich. In fact, of the 575 players in the union last year more than half -- 330 -- made less than $100,000. There were 134 players making between $100,000 and $200,000 and 111 making more than $200,000.
So, this is upper middle class players versus billionaire owners. Hardly a fair fight.
Last week, player agent Ted Philipakos used legal documents filled with the US Department of Labor to determine that the MLS Players Union have a strike fund of about $6-million. That's not terrible for the local tire plant, but not great for a pro sports union.
Using simple math I worked out an estimate of what the strike pay might be. If the union planned for a 16-week stoppage, and equally distributed the strike fund to all players, you would get a payout of ~$434 a week. Not much, but it's likely that the higher paid players would opt out to help keep solidarity among the lower paid guys. If players making more than $200,000 refused strike pay you would get ~$538/week and if those making more than $100,000 passed it could be as high as $757/week.
Still, not much.
Another (riskier) strategy would be to plan for a 4-week work stoppage with the hope that the owners would cave (or that they could get another union to help out by adding to the strike fund). As stated, this is risky. If the owners don't blink you could be out of income in one month. Still, a weekly cheque of ~$2,608 (all),~$3,232 (+$200,000 opt out) or ~$4,454 (+$100,000 opt out) will make for much better coffees on the picket line.
Regardless, it's a risk. Anytime you strike it is. So, you need to make sure that you're striking for the right reasons. It's the position of this space they are, but it's also not this space's livelihood at risk.
Numbers aside, most fans just want to know if they will be watching MLS this weekend. Unfortunately, that can't be answered. All we really know know if that the two CCL games will be played. We've also been told that the two sides have agreed to give a 24-hour notice of an intent to walk out/lock out. Put that info together and the witching hours are anytime after 10pm ET Wednesday (when DCU finishes its CCL game) and 10pm ET Thursday (24-hours before the scheduled starting time of the first game of the season).
Until then we wait and hope for more information to leak out.