In the hours that have passed since TFC and Vancouver swapped Nathan Sturgis for TFC’s first round draft pick there has been a lot of debate about the relative merits of giving up a draft pick for a player. In Canada, where many MLS fans are also NHL fans, the debate is clouded by the perception of value in NHL draft picks. It’s widely felt that giving up a first round draft pick in the NHL is, well, something only the Leafs do.
As I wrote yesterday, the MLS SuperDraft is a bit different. You are selecting from a player pool that will have useful players in it – it may even have a couple future stars – but the depth of the field isn’t even close to what you would find in hockey.
Think of a MLS draft pick as an asset. You need to convert that asset into something useful. Roughly speaking that would be:
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- A top 3 pick = star
- A 4-10 pick = starter
- 11-30 pick = depth player
- 30+ pick = lotto ticket
That's what you need to get from your picks to remain competitive. However, it doesn't matter how you use the picks to convert the asset into that.
TFC gave away an 8th pick. That should equal a starter. Sturgis seems like he'll be a starter. So, TFC got good value for its asset. Vancouver might draft Clint Dempsey 2.0. with the pick, but that's irrelevant to the discussion of whether the move is good for Toronto.
A Hockey analogy: Growing up I had an odd thing for the Washington Capitals (still do, it's just easier now). In the late ‘80s they lacked a certain something and needed to go out and get a sandpaper type of pest player that could help in the playoffs. So, they traded for Dale Hunter. The Caps never broke through to the highest level with Hunter, but they did manage to go further than they had before. Hunter is still considered one of the all-time best Caps.
To get Hunter they traded a first round draft pick to Quebec. Quebec used that pick to select Joe Sakic -- he of 1,641 points in 21 NHL seasons.
There isn't a Caps fan in the world that would turn back the clock and not make that trade. Why? Because the Caps really, really needed Dale Hunter. Also, it's unlikely that the Caps would have taken Sakic anyway. It's a fool's game to look at what player was drafted when evaluating trades involving draft picks.
TFC needs Sturgis. He can (and likely will) play a position that they were God-awful at last year. He's, unlike many former TFC busts, good value. And, he’s just 23 – you know, younger than O’Brian White.
The trade might end up really working out for Vancouver, but, again, evaluating who "wins" this trade isn't an either or situation. It's a bit cliché, but both teams really might benefit.
When you are Toronto and you have fans revolting over four losing seasons it's understandable that they have opted for the surer thing. Although there is a chance that the Caps could draft a superstar, or that Sturgis could get hit by a bus tomorrow, the odds of either are pretty long. Actually, I would argue that the odds are currently against Vancouver getting a player better than Sturgis. The Whitecaps have to trust their judgement, but they are still ultimately taking a gamble (if they don't trade the pick, which I'm not convinced they won't).
Also, the odds are very long that the player Vancouver picks will be better than Sturgis next year. In Toronto, right now, that kinda matters.
It's not that SuperDraft picks are useless -- they aren't -- it's that they aren't as useful as some are suggesting (in Vancouver) or fearing (in Toronto).