The first stat we are going to look at isn’t really even a stat. Rather, it’s a projection. In the old days of the 24th Minute blog we used to publish a bi-weekly table we called the Home-Away Projected Standings (HAPS). The concept was simple: Understanding that MLS has an unbalanced schedule that often sees teams holding multiple games in hand as well as extreme home or away weighted starts to the year we sought to even that out. By determining each team’s home points per game (PPG) and their away PPG then multiplying each by the amount of home and away games each teams had left we came up with a projected final points total.
That number doesn’t really predict where teams will finish – it assumes they will play the second half of the season the exact same way as they played the first – but it does allow fans to quickly look at the results to get an idea of how, when all factors are equal(-er), teams have performed so far.
How have teams been performing so far? Find out below.
East
1. DCU 54 (projected points)
2. TFC 53
3. NYRB 53
4. Crew 46
5. IMFC 45
6. NER 42
7. NYCFC 39
7. OCSC 39
9. Philly 35
10. Fire 30
West
1. Dallas 60 (Supporters Shield)
2. SKC 58
3. VWFC 53
4. LAG 49
4. Seattle 49
4. PDX 49
7. SJE 47
8. RSL 43
9. Houston 41
10. Colorado 39
Again, this reflects what HAS happened. Obviously, teams can get hot in the second half, especially if they add significant pieces. That said, fans of each of the three Canadian teams should enjoy HAPS as it reflects well all three team’s starts. TFC’s massive back-half home schedule bodes well for them to not only finally make the playoffs, but to actually compete for the Eastern title. The Impact are already solidly projecting in the top six and Vancouver is right there in the hyper-competitive west.
The disparity between east and west is a weakness of this model (and the Ns are simply too small to make effective projections of Home Vs. East, Away Vs. West, etc.). You can reasonably assume the west will start to take points off each other making the Supporter’s Shield race projection somewhat premature – esp if the top of the East starts to dominate against the weaker sides at the bottom of the East (the stretch run is mostly in conference).
Let’s look at another number.
The old adage in sport is that “offense sells tickets and defense wins championships.” That’s Sports Radio 101 – a truism we’ve understood since sitting on our granddad’s knee watching (aging myself here) the New York Islanders win Stanley Cups.
There’s one problem with that as it relates to MLS. It’s wrong. This is a league where offense wins championships.
Since 2007 (the accepted start of the so-called MLS 2.0 era) the top offensive team in MLS has won a major trophy (MLS Cup or Supporter’s Shield) six of eight seasons, with that team winning the double once. Correspondingly, the top defensive team has only won a major trophy in two of the eight seasons – one of which was a season where the top offensive team was also the top defensive.
The lowest regular season finish by the top offensive team was in 2009 when Salt Lake shocked the league by winning the MLS Cup from the wildcard position. However, it maybe shouldn’t have been a shock since, as we now know, being the highest scoring team in MLS is a great predictor of winning silverware.
The projected top scoring teams in MLS this season:
1. TFC 55
2. SKC 52
2. Dallas 52
2. Columbus 52
2. NYRB 52
6. LAG 50
7. NYCFC 48
8. Montreal 47
9. NER 43
9. Philly 43
11. OCSC 42
12. Vancouver 41
13. DCU 40
14. Seattle 38
15. PDX 37
15. Chicago 37
15. Chicago
18. RSL 35
19. Houston 34
20. Colorado 31
We’re just going to let No. 1 hang there. Two out of eight years the top offensive team hasn’t won a trophy and I suspect most will instinctively suggest it’s about to be three of nine if the projection turns out to be true.
Maybe, but it’s further illustrating that painting TFC’s start of the year as mediocre does not hold up when you look deeper – they are performing as a top third team, not a middling team.
Colorado is a great example of how being a top offensive team is more important than being a top defensive one. They are the best defensive team in MLS right now. They’re also last in the west.
All of the numbers so far have been projections based on performance so far. Let’s end this by looking a couple stats that are designed to predict what we might expect moving forward.
Total Shot Ratio is a well-known number in the stats world that, in England at least, has been shown to be effective at demonstrating team’s “true” strength in a way that goes beyond the table. The basic idea is that teams that get more shots score more and teams that score more win more. So, TSR looks at what percentage of shots each team is getting in the games it plays in.
If a team has 500 shots for and 500 against it would have a .500 TSR -- (500SF+500SA) /1000TS. It’s kind of soccer’s answer to hockey’s Corsi for those who understand what that means.
However, MLS has had some odd TSR results over the last few years people have tracked this. That’s not to say that TSR is irrelevant in MLS, but it needs to be viewed in a full picture (as any stat should be). Before we give you this year’s TSR numbers, let’s look at the MLS TSR numbers at the 2014 all-star break.
1. LA Galaxy .597 (MLS Cup champion)
2. Kansas City .590
3. Colorado .577
4. Philly .571
5. Columbus .515
6. Toronto .511
7. New England .510
8. Chicago .508
9. Vancouver .507
10. Seattle .503 (Supporter’s Shield)
11. Salt Lake .502
12. Houston .500
13. Portland .478
14. Montreal .457
15. San Jose .453
16. DC United .451
17. Chivas .450
18. New York .447
19. Dallas .441
LA was at the top of the TSR rankings all last year, even when it started slowly. That would give credence to the value of TSR in predicting likelihood of success. However, teams like Philly and Colorado near the top and DC United and Dallas at the bottom should make you question it.
A few years ago the American Soccer Analysis blog found a negative correlation between possession and winning in MLS. That went against basically the rest of the world (go figure – MLS being different). It’s fair to suggest that there is something tactically that some teams do that makes things like TSR – things widely proven to be effective measures literally everywhere else in the world—more challenging in MLS.
To offer a theory, playing a deep lying tactical game in MLS that looks to take advantage of athletic counter attackers has proven to be a very effective way for some teams to overcome a lack of top end attacking talent. Therefore, many teams chose to sit back and allow teams shots, under the belief that the shooters aren’t talented enough to score when defenders are goal side in numbers. That’s a strategy anyone who has played beer league soccer should understand, even if not all that inspiring to those that want to see MLS become one of the better leagues in the world.
With that caveat, and the suggestion that the talent level in MLS IS improving and thus the counter-intuitive nature of possession and TSR in MLS could be shifting more towards the rest of the world, here are this year’s numbers.
1. Chicago .574
2. SKC .563
3. NYRB .548
4. Vancouver .544
5. Columbus .532
6. PDX .524
7. TFC .519
8. Colorado .517
9. LAG .513
10. Dallas .513
11. Houston .510
12. Orlando .502
13. Philly .491
14. NER .484
15. Montreal .482
16. San Jose .472
17. NYCFC .459
18. RSL .453
19. DCU .421
20. Seattle .402
Chicago, obviously, jumps out. Subjectively the worst team in the league tops in a stat that has proven to be hugely predictive in the rest of the world. Again, this supports the theory of teams sitting back against what they perceive as a lack of top end talent. Basically, MLS teams are confident that Chicago has nothing that can beat them so they sit back and wait until they can be opened up on a break.
The bottom of the chart is interesting as well. It’s dominated by some old school MLS management thinking -- From Montreal down you have guys that either played in MLS when counter attack was king or who have managed since the dawn of time using that strategy. In NYCFC’s case, both.
Counter that with the new school thinking managers at the top and MLS TSR is an interesting study, even if not as predictive as it is in rest of world.
The last measure we will look at is PDO – luck, basically. Another stat borrowed from hockey PDO (which stands for nothing by the way. It’s the internet commentator who came up with the concept’s handle), PDO simply adds shooting percentage to save percentage. In hockey, it’s been shown that over time both numbers will regress to a mean. In theory all team’s should have a PDO of 1.000. Any deviation above that can be viewed as a team being lucky, any amount below can be seen as unlucky.
There is debate in the soccer world as to whether the stat converts from hockey. However, it says here that in a parity league like MLS it’s worth tracking.
The PDO numbers at the All-Star Break. Listed from most lucky to least.
Seattle 1.048
DCU 1.044
Dallas 1.030
LAG 1.024
SKC 1.012
NYCFC 1.010
NYRB 1.003
Vancouver 1.002
RSL 1.001
Montreal 0.999
Houston 0.998
Colorado 0.991
TFC 0.990
Columbus 0.987
San Jose 0.987
New England 0.983
Orlando 0.982
PDX 0.976
Philly 0.964
Chicago 0.943
Anything within a percent of 1.000 is not really worth concerning yourself over. With all three Canadian teams in that range, it’s fair to suggest that none should feel either lucky or unlucky.
What seeing East leader’s DCU near the top suggests is worth considering. The same goes with Seattle (although since both are at the bottom of TSR as well it again may point to a tactical issue at play).
The glaring number here is Chicago though. If MLS is even a little bit like the rest of the world the TSR number, combined with the PDO number suggests the Fire are the team struggling right now that is most likely to turn things around.
As for the team most likely to fall – all things considered Seattle’s slump looks dangerous and DCU might be doing it with mirrors.
The winners? To us, the team that keeps jumping out of the numbers is Sporting Kansas City. We have to make them our mid-season pick to win MLS Cup based on these stats.
The three Canadian teams should also be pleased. Toronto is right there at the top of the East and Vancouver is consistently in the top 5 in the tougher West. Montreal, looks solid to be battling for the playoffs and the addition of Drogba adds an intriguing wrinkle.
The great thing about using objective measures to evaluate performance is that it still provides you with the opportunity to be subjective in your interpretation. So, feel free to disagree. Just use the numbers to illustrate why.