Subjectively it’s impossible to answer, so we attempted to take an objective look at his numbers last year using data from Whoscored.com. To put in perspective we compared him to Luke Moore, a TFC non DP striker that put up similar numbers of goals and assists (7-5 Gilberto; 6-4 Moore).
If you've read other articles on football stats you’ll know that goals are an imperfect measure since they are so rare. A more predictive measure is shots. The more shots you get the more goals you score (obviously). Yes, shot quality matters, but it’s well established that a player’s shots per 90 correlates strongly to his goals.
Recognizing that offensive players also need to create for others, I also look at the stat of key passes. A key pass is a pass that creates a scoring chance for another player. By combining shots per 90 with key passes per 90 (S+KP) you get a nice measure of a player’s offensive contribution to a team.
Robbie Keane led MLS in S+KP last year with 6.1. He was also the league’s MVP.
As for our TFC pair, Gilberto had 2.4 s/90 and 1.3 KP/90 for a S+KP total of 3.7.
Moore had 2.0 s/90 and 1.1 KP/90 for a S+KP of 3.1.
So, in terms of pure offensive contribution, Gilberto was 0.6 S+KP better. That’s not huge, but not insignificant. He probably should have had more than one goal more than Moore did in 2014.
As said, we’re looking at the overall game here though. So, how do they stack up in other performance measures?
Passing saw Moore slightly more effective, with a 78.3% completion rate versus a 75.6%. Call that a wash. Both players beat opponents on the dribble 0.6 times per 90. Another draw.
FC Dallas’ Fabian Castillo led the league with 4.1 dribbles per 90.
Another important area for a striker is being effective in the air. Here, Gilberto had 1.8 aerial wins per 90 versus 2.7 for Moore. A significant advantage (and a bit surprising) for Moore.
Dallas’ Blas Perez was the top forward in this category with 3.9/90. Moore was actually 5th among all forwards.
Not all stats are positive. By combining fouls, times offside and times dispossessed we come up with a turnovers per 90 number.
Gilberto 3.1, Moore 2.6. Moore took care of the ball better than the Brazilian. A couple comparisons: Robbie Keane 3.7 and Eddie Johnson 4.1. So, both TFC players had a decent turnover rate.
Lastly we look at a stat I call Defensive Involvement. DI is simply the total amount of tackles, interceptions and clearances plus defensive headers.
Gilberto had 3.4 with Moore coming in at 4.1. Another advantage to Moore.
Among forwards Seattle's Lamar Neagle had the greatest DI with 5.3.
Overall you could make the argument that Moore was slightly better than Gilberto, with the exception of on offense. Considering offense is the most important thing a striker does it’s probably fair to say that the two men had equitable numbers.
Of course Moore wasn't a DP. And therein is the key. If you’re getting similar production from Moore (and he’s even willing to restructure his contract, as he did last month) then it becomes difficult to justify holding onto Gilberto.
Except if you get into subjective arguments about promise. The eyeball test did suggest that Gilberto had more to give and it’s possible that he might have broken out in 2015. The offensive advantage he held over Moore came after a slow start as well so maybe that increases.
Objectively, however, the numbers are what they are and in 2014 what was measured suggests that Gilberto was not significantly better than a player that was a much lower cap hit.