Canada vs Iceland - Jan 15th (Camp Poutine Match #3) in Men's National Teams Posted 3 hours ago 54 minutes ago, Lofty said: 20% chance we finish top 3 in the hexagonal?! That implies that if they played it 5 times, we would finish top 3 in one iteration! I haven't seen that kind of optimism since Scotland's last qualification attempt! I'd say if we played it 20 times Canada would finish top 3 once and even that is generous. That would make the odds 5%. Regardless, it is pretty clear that any advantage the hexagonal path may have is predicated on the odds of Canada qualifying automatically by finishing top 3. And you need to be wearing quite a few pairs of Canada coloured glasses to see that actually happening, particularly given Canada's sterling record playing away in Central America. Otherwise, it comes down to this: 2nd place in a 4 team group also containing Costa Rica, Hondurass, and Jamaica; where Canada are the lowest ranked team. vs. 1st place in a much larger group where most teams have zero chance and Canada are the highest ranked team. Then, in either case, there are 2 play-off ties to win. You dont think wed finish ahead of honduras jamaica or costa rica one out of every 5 times? id place money on that.