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Posts posted by king1010

  1. 54 minutes ago, Lofty said:

    20% chance we finish top 3 in the hexagonal?! That implies that if they played it 5 times, we would finish top 3 in one iteration! I haven't seen that kind of optimism since Scotland's last qualification attempt!

    I'd say if we played it 20 times Canada would finish top 3 once and even that is generous. That would make the odds 5%.

    Regardless, it is pretty clear that any advantage the hexagonal path may have is predicated on the odds of Canada qualifying automatically by finishing top 3. And you need to be wearing quite a few pairs of Canada coloured glasses to see that actually happening, particularly given Canada's sterling record playing away in Central America.

    Otherwise, it comes down to this:

    2nd place in a 4 team group also containing Costa Rica, Hondurass, and Jamaica; where Canada are the lowest ranked team.


    1st place in a much larger group where most teams have zero chance and Canada are the highest ranked team.

    Then, in either case, there are 2 play-off ties to win.

    You dont think wed finish ahead of honduras jamaica or costa rica one out of every 5 times? 

    id place money on that. 

  2. 12 hours ago, Acid-Tone said:

    They probably offered about half of that!   Which is why it was turned down.

    They should think about the future and try selling Aboubakar or Marega and use that money to help make the David deal.   

    Saw on twitter that Porto offered 6m euros and were rejected. 

  3. 5 hours ago, BearcatSA said:

    There are 26 guys in this camp, so did they want more than that?

    As a side not, due to the tensions in Iran/the Middle East at the moment, the Americans cancelled their 25 man camp in Qatar. 

    I'm assuming they would've kept the roster at 26, just drop some of the experimental players for Cav, Johnson Kaye etc. 

  4. 7 hours ago, Ove said:

    Another of today's CONCACAF realities is; that even if a country advances to the semi-final stage of the Gold Cup and/or Nations League, it will still have to play a minimum of two friendlies per year in order to qualify for the HEX.

      Total Gold Cup Nations League Friendlies
    Mexico    17       6             4        7
    USA    18       6             4        8
    Costa Rica    13       4             4        5
    Jamaica    14       5             7        2
    Honduras    12       3             4        5
    El Salvador    14       3             7        4
    Canada      9       4             5        0
    Curacao    11       4                5        2
    Panama    12       4             4        4
    Haiti    14       5             5        4
    It is also a fact that Canadians will turn out in large numbers to support the Men's national team when it competes against the world's elite:
    The June 5, 1994 attendance for the Canada vs. Brazil (1-1) friendly, at Commonwealth Stadium, in Edmonton, was 51,936
    Under the current World Cup qualifying format:  No Friendlies = No HEX

    Canadians will turn up against the Worlds elite, but not necessarily to support the MNT. A lot of those who show up for marquee opponents are there to see in person the football elites, not cheer on the MNT. 


    39 minutes ago, Daryn27 said:

    Yes but then if we make it through the lower playoff to the 4th place match who will we go up against? Either Costa Rica, Honduras, or Jamaica. I’d rather face them in a pool format where one result may not cost us but it would in a two game playoff against them. 

    I’d rather compete for 1.5 spots against Honduras, Costa Rica, and Jamaica then compete for 0.5 spots against Panama, Haiti, Curaçao, then one of Honduras, Costa Rica, or Jamaica then face a South American country like Colombia, Chile, or Uruguay.

    This right here x1000

  6. 6 minutes ago, red card said:

    You're assuming Canada has a very good chance for the 3 auto berths. But in reality, that is not the case.

    I would say in the HEX, Canada is realistically playing for 1.5 spots vs 1 in the 7-35 playdown. Non-Canadian Concacaf watchers would say Canada is playing for 0.5 spot in the HEX since Canada hasn't demonstrated in the past 30 years of being a top 3 in the region.

    In the HEX, Canada has out do Honduras, Jamaica & CR but not everything is under our control since results against Mexico & US come into play.

    In the playdowns, it's likely vs Curacao, Panama & Haiti. And it's all under Canada's control but it also means less forgiveness if there is a major stumble.

    We arent playing for 1 spot in the 7 to 35, we’re playing for 0.5 sports and basically 0.1 spots if drawn against south america. 

    Also the historical top 3 in concacaf which we havent been able to crack is not as strong as it used to be. 

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