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BuzzAndSting

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  1. Haha
    BuzzAndSting got a reaction from Ansem in CPL new teams speculation   
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  2. Like
    BuzzAndSting got a reaction from sebdeserio in CPL new teams speculation   
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  3. Haha
    BuzzAndSting got a reaction from Ivan in CPL new teams speculation   
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  4. Haha
    BuzzAndSting got a reaction from Cheeta in CPL new teams speculation   
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  5. Like
    BuzzAndSting got a reaction from ray in CPL new teams speculation   
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    BuzzAndSting got a reaction from johnyb in CPL new teams speculation   
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  7. Like
    BuzzAndSting reacted to red card in Herdman new head coach   
    For at least a couple of answers, this is Herdman in his element. Yet, I haven't seen none of the soccer media reporting on these answers from a October 15th call yet. Instead, most often mentioned were the call with GGG and the Edmonton weather advantage.
    But the most telling answers for me were:
    First camp under Herdman had 2 fights. People said to him that this is men’s football. But Herdman stood against it. You can fight with your opponent but you don’t fight internally. It isn’t a man or woman’s thing. This is a dysfunctional team. We have to eliminate the threat inside this team which is the broken relationship, the factions, these little cliques…The Scottish boys went one way, the  Spanish speaking guys went one way, the Eastern European guys went one way. 
    The leadership group now understand the importance of shared purpose, understand the importance of their own humility and understand the importance of connecting every man regardless of race, religion & language. 
    The All Blacks doc he had them watch is I believe Chasing Great: a very personal insight into high level international sport and a revealing psychological profile of the mind of a champion. Natural strength, hard work and sacrifice only get him so far. To become the best he has to master his mind. The mental toughness and self knowledge that Richie McCaw has honed and worked to attain over the later years of his career has elevated him from a great player into perhaps the greatest ever. 
  8. Like
    BuzzAndSting got a reaction from El Diego in Tickets for Edmonton World Cup Qualifying Series.   
    Yes, the limit is set by TM. For the last game in Toronto is was 9. No indication yet as to what it will be for Edmonton so be prepared to have multiple people ready to purchase.
  9. Haha
    BuzzAndSting reacted to CanadaFan123 in Lucas Dias - Sporting CP   
    In his defence I'm on his ignore list. I can't be sure but I believe it was because I let him know that Alexander Isak was not eligible for the 2020 Golden Boy because he was a 99 birth year.
  10. Haha
    BuzzAndSting reacted to Shway in Lucas Dias - Sporting CP   
    Work smart, not hard is a famous saying no? Guess we all haven’t seen that.
  11. Like
    BuzzAndSting reacted to RS in Lucas Dias - Sporting CP   
    He claims to work hard but he didn't bother reading @CanadaFan123's post literally above his own that explained Dias' presence in Istanbul.
  12. Haha
    BuzzAndSting reacted to Sal333 in WCQ: Third Round - Window 3 (November 12-16, 2021)   
    You don't even have to base it on science. Anecdotal evidence is enough.
  13. Haha
    BuzzAndSting reacted to RS in WCQ: Third Round - Window 3 (November 12-16, 2021)   
    Based on science everyone dies.
  14. Like
    BuzzAndSting reacted to Weng in WCQ: Third Round - Window 3 (November 12-16, 2021)   
    I understood you.  Costa Rica is a very old team, and you were taking a shot at their age.  I had a small chuckle 
  15. Haha
    BuzzAndSting reacted to dyslexic nam in WCQ: Third Round - Window 3 (November 12-16, 2021)   
    Not good.  At their age that sort of thing can be pretty serious.  
    Sorry, not funny.  I really do hope they all recover to full health after the November window.  
     
  16. Like
    BuzzAndSting reacted to footballfreak in WCQ: Third Round - Window 3 (November 12-16, 2021)   
    Jamaica actually bottomed out after round 5 at 2.4% (top 3) and 7.7% (top 4). If that feels low, please consider this snapshot after 5 games:
    Before the ocho started, most projections and pundits estimated that the threshold for qualifying in the top 3 would probably fall somewhere between 20-24 poins, with 24 points pretty much representing a stone cold lock for qualification and ~17-20 points being good for 4th. However, it should be noted that Canada’s projected total has slowly been ticking towards the upper edge of that range (23.7), so the target is not a static one for Jamaica. The higher that target goes, the less likely it becomes that they can catch us even if they get hot. But let’s be generous and say a total of 20 gets you over the line. Jamaica would have needed to average 6W-0D-3L or 5W-3D-1L in a schedule with tough home games remaining against USA/Mexico and road trips to Honduras, Canada, Panama and El Salvador. There are maybe 3 games in that stretch where they would be considered better than 50/50. Even if we assume a 50/50 coin flip model with no draws, they only reach 6 wins or more 25.4% of the time. If you assume 23 points (7 wins) is the the threshold, those odds dip to 9.0%. And that’s before you consider... By ELO rating, Jamaica are the 6th best team in the ocho. Maybe they’re actually better than that, but so far the the limited results we have say they are pretty much who we thought they were. They’re already going into most games as an underdog, so a coinflip model overestimates them. It’s not a two horse race. There are other teams involved, and every single one of them was ahead of Jamaica in the standings at that point. This is the big one that drastically cut into their odds. They not only had to overcome a 6 point deficit in only 9 games, they needed to leapfrog 5 other teams. Even in the tail-end outcomes where Canada/Panama both fall off dramatically, and the points threshold is lowered, and the stars align for Jamaica, some other team pips them to that third spot more often than not by virtue of being better positioned to take advantage. Home advantage. We all know. I think the number was something crazy like a 17% win rate on the road since the Hex began, but I wasn’t able to retrieve that stat. Draws do very little for Jamaica given the hole they’re in, so they need road wins. They got one, and they probably need at least 1-2 more. Not easy. Not likely. Can they do all that and make the top 3? Sure. How likely is it though? I would argue that 2.4% (~1 in 42) to finish top 3, and 7.7% (1 in 13) is completely reasonable for a last place team through 35% of the schedule. 1 in 13 is certainly not hopeless given how deep a hole they were in, and even 1 in 42 is 6x as likely as having twins (1 in 250). Is the prospect of having twins hopeless? You can quibble over a few percentage points, but it’s not like Jaimaica were underestimated by an order of magnitude. 
    Flash forward to round 6. Almost every result that needed to go their way went their way. They won away from home and 4 of the 5 teams directly above them dropped all 3 points. Honduras in particular tanked their chances in a massive way. Despite that, Jamaica currently sit at 6.4% (not 8%) to finish top 3 and 23.6% to finish top 4. That seems like a pretty fair chance seeing as they still sit 6th, haven’t played very well, and are still in a hole.

    ——
    Regarding the use of poisson distribution, I found a brief explanation from El Noido.
     
  17. Thanks
    BuzzAndSting reacted to frattinator in WCQ: Third Round - Window 3 (November 12-16, 2021)   
    Going to try to take a stab here. 
    So without looking under the hood, what the model appears to do is to use ELO ratings as an estimator for each team's probability of win when they face each other. Now, you can argue that ELO ratings are not the best representative of the teams' relative strengths (and better if you can suggest a better alternative), and I would have time for that argument. But if you can assume (and I think plenty of people smarter than me have done the due diligence on the use of ELO ratings in many different sports) ELO ratings represent a decent estimator, than you can use that as the basis of some informative models. 
    What Monte Carlo simulation does is taking advantage of the Law of Large Numbers and Central Limit Theorem and treating each match up as an individual trial with three outcomes. More simply, if you can assume ELO ratings do a good job of estimating the relative strengths of each squad, then you can generate a probability distribution of the results between every single pair of teams. However, since these are probabilistic, each single sampling might not represent the most likely case. Imagine El Salvador played Canada at BMO field, a random sample might generate an outcome where El Salvador came out with a win, but that would not be representative of the expected result between Canada and El Salvador. Monte Carlo simulation gets around this by making tens of thousands of samples, and using Law of Large Numbers (which basically states that the average result of a large number of trials converges to the expected value (in this case, ELO ratings), so that we can see based on the ELO rating what the most likely result is. What Monte Carlo simulations do even better however, is using the thousands of simulations that it ran and generate the probabilistic outcome of what result was. It's as if you can watch Canada play El Salvador 1000 times, Canada might win 500 times, draw 300 times, and lose 200 times. You can now use this one result (50% of 3 points and  30% of 1 point) and aggregate it to other similar matchups between other teams to understand how the overall table looks. Once again, without having access to the code, I don't know how they generated the priors for each matchup (my assumption is they used the relative proportion of the ELO ratings to generate the win and draw probabilities of the multinomial distribution, or even just a generalized Bernoulli's distribution and sample from that for each trial), but assuming they are not donkeys I can't see how they can screw it up that badly. 
    As to the criticism that ELO ratings are being updated between each trial, I think there is a misunderstanding of what the model is designed for and the conclusions you are trying to draw. If the goal is to create a predictive model PRIOR to the start of the Octo and see which teams are likely to qualify, then yes, using updated ELO ratings would be inappropriate. But in that case, what you are really evaluating is how good of an estimation are ELO ratings PRIOR to the Octo final standing. However, the model here doesn't try to do this, and instead it's trying to take all available information to predict who, after match day 14, will be occupying the top three spots in CONCACAF. In addition to using the updated ELO ratings, it also takes in account of the fact that there are fewer matches for teams to play, so the uncertainty bound for the final result also shrinks each after each match. Complaining about this model's approach with that goal is akin to complaining about election models that incorporate polling information during the campaign, which is unreasonable in my mind. Now, you can make an argument that we shouldn't treat each match as completely independent draws out of a probability distribution, especially since things like yellow card accumulation, fatigue, or injuries could have an impact on future matches. But no model can account for everything, and that's the world we live in.
    One final thing, it's important to remember that all models are wrong, but some are useful. Probabilistic models provide likelihood of events, they are not deterministic and shouldn't be used as soothsayer on your future Qatar travel plans. But you can use that to start planning on when  you want to setup your flight ticket sale notifications (for example, when Canada hit 95% 😉).
  18. Thanks
    BuzzAndSting reacted to footballfreak in WCQ: Third Round - Window 3 (November 12-16, 2021)   
    There’s a whole lot wrong to unpack here, and I don’t know if I have the energy to do it after two years of arguing with anti-vaxxers, but here goes.
    First and foremost, the simulation of remaining games is not based on current record, but on elo rating. For example, Canada’s most likely finish after match day 5 was still 3rd, despite the fact we were in 4th in the live standings. If we’re getting even more pedantic, I don’t think the guy who produces the model even uses updated elo rankings each round, but rather a static set from before the ocho began. So no, the odds of each individual game don’t change afik. Even if they did update elo rating each round, tweaking the odds based on newer, better data is a feature not a bug.
    Second, the fact that the probability of qualifying fluctuates as the model is updated with results is not some gotcha. That is what is actually happening irl. Canada winning against Panama altered both teams’ respective chances of qualifying. Every team will ultimately end up in one of two bins - in or out. You will either be at 0% or 100% qualified. The results teams achieve throughout qualifying, and the results of other games, will begin to shift them closer to one bin or the other. All this model does is try to accurately reflect how close each team is to each bin. You can argue it doesn’t do an adequate job, or factor in enough variables, but you’re not gonna have better accuracy with some static crystal ball.
    If Mexico has a 65% chance of winning their next game, the probability of them qualifying afterward will have changed irrespective of any other result - because you can’t 65% win a soccer game. The pendulum is always swinging. The plinko balls are always falling left or right. Pick whatever metaphor you want, but if you’re not factoring in current data into your predictive model, then it has no more value than a magic 8 ball.
    Third, Jamaica was a particularly poor choice of example, because their changing fortunes in reality are quite well reflected in the model. Before the start of game 1, they were given a 10.3% chance to finish in the top 3, and a 23.8% chance to finish in the top 4 - with ~60% of outcomes putting them in the 5th to 7th range. This more or less passes the sniff test. You can argue they should have been slightly higher or lower, but most assessed them as being something of a wildcard that could fall anywhere in the 3-7 range depending on how well their new players bedded in. 
    Anywho, they then had a bad run of games which significantly lowered their chances (go figure), then rebounded slightly when they outperformed the average number of points they were predicted to win in Honduras. None of that is surprising. Ultimately, their odds are currently better than they were before game 6, but worse than at the start of qualifying. Again, that passes the sniff test - they went from being on zeros with everyone else to being in a point deficit, with fewer games remaining to overcome it. 
    I’m gonna go to bed and trust someone else will be able to explain the finer points of Monte Carlo models and Poisson distributions way better than I ever could, but in closing...

  19. Like
    BuzzAndSting got a reaction from Unnamed Trialist in WCQ: Third Round - Window 3 (November 12-16, 2021)   
    Triggered!
  20. Like
    BuzzAndSting reacted to El Hombre in Attending November Window in Edmonton   
    Alright, fuck it, I'm going to Edmonton.  Both games.
    Can anyone summarize the last ten pages?  I'm too lazy to go back and read them all. 
    I'm particularly interested in the following topics:
    1) How cold is it going to be?
    2) No, seriously, how cold is it going to be?
    3) What area is the best place to stay that balances proximity to the games and to bars?
    4) Fuck off, it's not going to be that cold, is it?
  21. Thanks
    BuzzAndSting reacted to xabuep2 in WCQ: Canada vs Panama - Wednesday, Oct 13, 7:30pm Eastern / 4:30pm Pacific - Toronto   
    That man is as a sports journalist what I am as an astronaut! I think he already had his 10 minutes of fame LOL.😆
     
    The general comment here in PTY is that with the changes that Panama made in the second half, the team performed well but what destabilized the team's performance was the lack of concentration  of Cummings. In particular, I knew Canada would come out with everything in the second half. And Cummings was not the only mistake: several Panamanian players had missed passes, it is something that Thomas Christiansen will have to improve.
    The next game against El Salvador seems to be played behind closed doors. This game will be very mediatic, since there have been many insults between journalists from both countries and has warmed the fans and public opinion, after the Panamanian defeat in San Salvador.
  22. Like
    BuzzAndSting reacted to maplebanana in WCQ: Third Round - Window 3 (November 12-16, 2021)   
    Cool.
    Considering your original message disparaging the simulations, I would argue you have no clue how these simulations work to begin with. They do not just say 'team A is in position x, therefore will finish position x'. But go ahead and think whatever you want. 
  23. Like
    BuzzAndSting reacted to sstackho in WCQ: Third Round - Window 3 (November 12-16, 2021)   
    🙃
    https://www.reddit.com/r/ussoccer/comments/q8ofoc 

     
  24. Like
    BuzzAndSting got a reaction from Kent in General Discussion on CMNT   
    That's not a 60 man roster. That's a media page to provide info on all player's who've been called into the squad over the last few years, aka the player pool. It's designed to provide information for fans and media in the lead up to MNT camps and games. Players will be added as they're selected and removed when they retire from international or club football. This list is not the genesis of a camp roster it is the result of them.
  25. Haha
    BuzzAndSting got a reaction from maplebanana in WCQ: Third Round - Window 3 (November 12-16, 2021)   
    Triggered!
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