Olympic Games: Canada vs France - Sunday, July 28th - 3pm Eastern / 12pm Pacific - Saint-Étienne

[Big_M]

With Canada now at -3 points following a win vs New Zealand and a 6 point deduction following the drone spying scandal a draw or a loss in this game would almost certainly mean elimination for Canada

[Allez les Rouges]

Loss vs France = mathematically eliminated

Draw vs France = potentially still alive. If Canada then wins its last game against Colombia, it would finish:

- 2nd in group (and qualify) if NZ draws Colombia AND loses to France

- last in group (and be eliminated) if NZ loses to Colombia AND beats France

- 3rd in group otherwise; in this case, Canada needs one of: (AUS and ZAM draw each other and both lose their last game) OR (JPN and NGA both lose their 2nd game and draw each other)

Thus, a draw is sufficient to stay alive heading into the final day if ANY of the following happens before the game:

- NZ draws Colombia

- Australia draws Zambia

- Brazil beats Japan AND Spain beats Nigeria

So you know what to root for in those 4 other games...

[BearcatSA]

Ramirez is suspended and Linda Caicedo looks like she has crocked up her knee somewhat while the Colombian defending looked dodgy, so New Zealand might have a shot at an upset, but they seem like a team vulnerable to pressing and pace, which the Colombians still have from their supporting cast, notably feaured by their goal scoring sub, Pavi.

Edited July 28 by BearcatSA

[BearcatSA]

Versus Colombia, France's midfield press in the first half was excellent and really dictated the play.  Their second half sucked, however, as they looked rattled by Colombia's tactical moves and renewed drive.  Plus, their back line looked vulnerable to the likes of Ramirez (she should have had a hat trick) and Linda Caicedo but those two are elite.

I like our back three and keeper. It might not be a bad idea to bring in another true central midfielder as opposed to a front three to help with breaking through the midfield pressure with possession rather than long balls or relying on the wingbacks.  Be hard to beat/break down and then anything can happen.

[Floortom]

this will be a remarkable test of mental strength. You could easily see them not showing up at all given all the distractions, the points deduction  etc. hopefully they can use these throngs to motivate themselves and have a great performance.

[TGAA_Star]

Either way it is a tall task for our women because we essentially have to win against France or draw against France to stay in this but then against Colombia then you have to win 

But if we win today that takes us to 0 points and then if we win against Colombia that gives us 3 points basically but would that even be enough to qualify for the next round?

Like our reputation now in the Olympic community is more or less tarnished now or our image in the Women's game tarnished because of this scandal. But to at least redeem ourselves in the eyes of the world, we simply just have to go out there and win games decisively. No other way around it.

[Stryker911]

11 hours ago, Allez les Rouges said:

Loss vs France = mathematically eliminated

Draw vs France = potentially still alive. If Canada then wins its last game against Colombia, it would finish:

- 2nd in group (and qualify) if NZ draws Colombia AND loses to France

- last in group (and be eliminated) if NZ loses to Colombia AND beats France

- 3rd in group otherwise; in this case, Canada needs one of: (AUS and ZAM draw each other and both lose their last game) OR (JPN and NGA both lose their 2nd game and draw each other)

Thus, a draw is sufficient to stay alive heading into the final day if ANY of the following happens before the game:

- NZ draws Colombia

- Australia draws Zambia

- Brazil beats Japan AND Spain beats Nigeria

So you know what to root for in those 4 other games...

I don't think it's unrealistic that we can go through with 1 point. We would have a better GD than the other 3rd place team, so we would win the tiebreaker. 

We need Australia-Zambia to tie today, which seems unlikely. The. There would still be hope in the last matchday if Japan and Nigeria both lose today.

[Allez les Rouges]

3 hours ago, TGAA_Star said:

But if we win today that takes us to 0 points and then if we win against Colombia that gives us 3 points basically but would that even be enough to qualify for the next round?

Even before the Colombia vs. NZ result, that was almost certainly enough. Now that Colombia beat NZ 2-0, it's mathematically assured that Canada would be through by winning its last two games:

- Canada would be ahead of Colombia on goal differential,

- the only way NZ can match Canada's goal differential is by beating France by 6 goals (lol), but any loss by France against NZ would put France behind Canada on goal differential.

In fact, if NZ pulls off an offset and beats France by 1-5 goals, Canada would top the group: all 4 teams would have 3 points, but Canada's GD would be +3 or better, versus NZ at +2 or worse, Colombia at 0 or worse, and France at -1 or worse.

Of course, NZ very likely won't beat France, in which case Canada would be 2nd.

[mpg_29]

But does the Fifa ruling impact our goal differential?

[Allez les Rouges]

15 hours ago, Allez les Rouges said:

Loss vs France = mathematically eliminated

Draw vs France = potentially still alive. If Canada then wins its last game against Colombia, it would finish:

- 2nd in group (and qualify) if NZ draws Colombia AND loses to France

- last in group (and be eliminated) if NZ loses to Colombia AND beats France

- 3rd in group otherwise; in this case, Canada needs one of: (AUS and ZAM draw each other and both lose their last game) OR (JPN and NGA both lose their 2nd game and draw each other)

Thus, a draw is sufficient to stay alive heading into the final day if ANY of the following happens before the game:

- NZ draws Colombia

- Australia draws Zambia

- Brazil beats Japan AND Spain beats Nigeria

So you know what to root for in those 4 other games...

Well unfortunately, with Colombia beating NZ and Japan beating Brazil, to keep the draw option alive, we need a draw between Australia and Zambia.

[Ozzie_the_parrot]

5 minutes ago, mpg_29 said:

But does the Fifa ruling impact our goal differential?

Don't think so because the scoreline wasn't changed but I'd scouring the fine print at this point for possible extra tiebreakers introduced involving entrants who have received a points deduction.

[Allez les Rouges]

9 minutes ago, mpg_29 said:

But does the Fifa ruling impact our goal differential?

The sanctions list doesn't mention goal differential, so it shouldn't.

[jonovision]

1 minute ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

Don't think so because the scoreline wasn't changed but I'd scouring the fine print at this point for possible extra tiebreakers introduced involving entrants who have received a points deduction.

A goals for/goals against penalty in addition to the six point deduction would be a further concession to absurdity (ie: forcing Canada to continue to play for literally no possible reward without sending them home).

The current penalty at least leaves the theoretical possibilty of advancing.

[Allez les Rouges]

Australia-Zambia is looking like a crazy game: Zambia leads 4-2 at half time.

Hopefully Australia can come back in the 2nd half.

[Big_M]

[The Ref]

We need better goalkeepers than Sheridan or D'Angelo.

[lamptern]

Interesting starting line up. Hold tight for 60 mins, then sub in Leon, Lacasse and Vien all at once for a result?

[BearcatSA]

As I wondered, Spence has ended up going with the extra mid in Awuju, the pace of Prince and Huitema on the counter.

I think we can get win here, folks.  

[Big_M]

with todays other results we cannot advance with a single point therefore we must win this game and the last one

[jonovision]

Hoping to see a Canada win, or some absolutely heinous shithousery. Honestly either works for me.

[Allez les Rouges]

8 minutes ago, Big_M said:

with todays other results we cannot advance with a single point therefore we must win this game and the last one

Indeed. Australia scoring the winning goal at 90' vs. Zambia closed off that path.

[jonovision]

1 minute ago, Allez les Rouges said:

Indeed. Australia scoring the winning goal at 90' vs. Zambia closed off that path.

* barring a successful appeal to reduce the points penalty

[jonovision]

Welp, time to start diving at every opportunity.

[A.D.I.D.A.S.]

France up 1-0

 

[Big_M]

france scores at 42'...need minimum two goals now so need to go all out in the second...2-3 up front and go direct