Canada and the 2024 Copa America

[Corazon]

4 hours ago, Obinna said:

Sure, but that was last cycle. If we are trying to rank Venezuela this cycle we don't need to bring up last cycle. 

I'm not trying to make it seem like playing in La Paz is easy. My only point was to question putting Venezuela here....

And like I said, I am not trying to downplay our tournament, but put Venezuela in the top 4 while you can, because I don't see them holding onto that place for long, as evidenced by their 4-0 loss. Like I said, we've had Argentina and Ecuador go in there and win, plus we had a so-called poor Peru limit Bolivia to just 2 goals. 

Sure and I’m not saying you’re wrong about Venezuela.  I’m confident in saying that I don’t think any one on this board truly feels Venezuela is top 4 team in South America. Nor do I think people on here think Venezuela will finish top 5 in qualifying.

I’m just saying that you can’t really take much away from results of games in Bolivia.

Edited September 7 by Corazon

[eramosat]

A big aside.  But does anyone know the story of how and why Guyana, French Guiana and Suriname play in CONCACAF and not CONMEBOL?

I understand their affinity with Caribbean nations, as opposed to South American nations. And that it's a definitely more competitive route for them.  I just don't know any football stories.

They themselves seem to deserve berths in future Copas.

Edited September 7 by eramosat

[Obinna]

4 hours ago, Corazon said:

Sure and I’m not saying you’re wrong about Venezuela.  I’m confident in saying that I don’t think any one on this board truly feels Venezuela is top 4 team in South America. Nor do I think people on here think Venezuela will finish top 5 in qualifying.

I’m just saying that you can’t really take much away from results of games in Bolivia.

Why can't you? They are away games just like the rest. Everyone has to go there and play in the same difficult conditions. The constant of playing a million feet above sea level exists for all teams.

It would make more sense to say that if some games were in La Paz, while others were at sea level, since all teams couldn't be measured with the same stick, so to speak.

Not trying to be difficult. I don't have a dog in this fight and almost just moved on, but just got very curious about this claim. I know what you mean, you are saying that not much can be drawn from playing at freak conditions, but everyone has to play in those freak conditions, so there is your constant. Know what I mean?

[Obinna]

Also, I never watched the match, but I should add the goals were allowed early, two in the opening minutes, so the bad start likely doomed Venezuela from the get go, which can happen. They never went down to 10 men, but going down early is a handicap psychologically.

They also conceded a third right before half, or right after, can't recall but either way it's a tough moment to give up a 3rd. The 4th was conceded in stoppage time of the 2nd half. 

So to your point @Corazon, you can't really say Peru are two goals better than Venezuela because they only allowed 2 against Bolivia in La Paz, since it's just one game. But at the same time, 4 goals against is 4 goals against, and that knock on their goal differential could matter. It could be the difference between them qualifying versus going to the playoff, or worse.

Venezuela I think are less savvy than most other South American teams, and perhaps that's why they let the game get away from them up in La Paz, whereas Peru may have less talent than Venezuela, but more know-how and experience to keep things close. Just a guess.

Either way, Venezuela are not even fourth anymore with Brazil's win today. They drop to 5th.

[ahmedou]

Take a look at our fouls per card stats!

We've been copa america'ed by the refs...

[Kadenge]

25 minutes ago, ahmedou said:

Take a look at our fouls per card stats!

We've been copa america'ed by the refs...

Lol Uruguay with 36 fouls per card which was 1 yellow!  I suppose it was only a coincidence that the top 5 were all Concacaf teams

 

 

 

[Corazon]

9 hours ago, Obinna said:

Also, I never watched the match, but I should add the goals were allowed early, two in the opening minutes, so the bad start likely doomed Venezuela from the get go, which can happen. They never went down to 10 men, but going down early is a handicap psychologically.

They also conceded a third right before half, or right after, can't recall but either way it's a tough moment to give up a 3rd. The 4th was conceded in stoppage time of the 2nd half. 

So to your point @Corazon, you can't really say Peru are two goals better than Venezuela because they only allowed 2 against Bolivia in La Paz, since it's just one game. But at the same time, 4 goals against is 4 goals against, and that knock on their goal differential could matter. It could be the difference between them qualifying versus going to the playoff, or worse.

Venezuela I think are less savvy than most other South American teams, and perhaps that's why they let the game get away from them up in La Paz, whereas Peru may have less talent than Venezuela, but more know-how and experience to keep things close. Just a guess.

Either way, Venezuela are not even fourth anymore with Brazil's win today. They drop to 5th.

There’s literally decades of data if you want to look up.  You can stick to your argument, that’s fine.

It’s no coincidence Bolivia’s only South American Championship was as host and their only ever runner up was also as the host nation.  If you need more data points just go and look up historical Copa Libertadores and Sudamérica games of teams from Bolivia (which I watch regularly).  You can fight the argument all you want.  This year’s competitions are a great example of it if you need more data points.

 

Edited September 7 by Corazon

[Corazon]

9 hours ago, Obinna said:

Why can't you? They are away games just like the rest. Everyone has to go there and play in the same difficult conditions. The constant of playing a million feet above sea level exists for all teams.

It would make more sense to say that if some games were in La Paz, while others were at sea level, since all teams couldn't be measured with the same stick, so to speak.

Not trying to be difficult. I don't have a dog in this fight and almost just moved on, but just got very curious about this claim. I know what you mean, you are saying that not much can be drawn from playing at freak conditions, but everyone has to play in those freak conditions, so there is your constant. Know what I mean?

Yes, everyone has to play at those freak conditions but the point is the Bolivians regularly play at the freak conditions that allow them to have a significant advantage over their competition.  Yes, home field advantages are everywhere but none quite as extreme as this.

Do you think it’s coincidence that Olympic athletes train in Denver, Colorado and Canmore, Alberta?  why do you think the best athletics schools are in Colorado?  They live and train in those places to gain a competitive edge.

Canmore - 4,860 feet

Denver - 5,680 feet

La Paz - 11,942 feet

El Alto - 13,123 feet (Venezuala game)

If our Olympic athletes are training at elevations in Denver and Canmore for its advantages, I have a hard time believing there’s not an advantage for Bolivians who train daily in Bolivia.

 

[Obinna]

2 hours ago, Corazon said:

There’s literally decades of data if you want to look up.  You can stick to your argument, that’s fine.

It’s no coincidence Bolivia’s only South American Championship was as host and their only ever runner up was also as the host nation.  If you need more data points just go and look up historical Copa Libertadores and Sudamérica games of teams from Bolivia (which I watch regularly).  You can fight the argument all you want.  This year’s competitions are a great example of it if you need more data points.

 

I am not sure you know what my argument is based on this comment, but either way it's all good. You don't need to convince me that playing at extreme elevation in Bolivia is a major challenge for opponents. I don't need any data points on that, I fully acknowledge it.

Cheers!

[Corazon]

2 hours ago, Obinna said:

I am not sure you know what my argument is based on this comment, but either way it's all good. You don't need to convince me that playing at extreme elevation in Bolivia is a major challenge for opponents. I don't need any data points on that, I fully acknowledge it.

Cheers!

All good brother.  Just defending my point that you have to take results in Bolivia with a grain of salt.  Better things to discuss tonight 💪🏼 

[Kent]

On 9/7/2024 at 3:37 AM, Obinna said:

Why can't you? They are away games just like the rest. Everyone has to go there and play in the same difficult conditions. The constant of playing a million feet above sea level exists for all teams.

I have never been at significant altitude and I don't know much about it, but I believe it affects different people to different degrees. You might have one person that feels fine while another is suffering with altitude sickness right next to them. So it seems to me some teams could be more affected than others, especially if any of these visiting teams have players that have played a lot at altitude at the club level.

[Obinna]

9 hours ago, Kent said:

I have never been at significant altitude and I don't know much about it, but I believe it affects different people to different degrees. You might have one person that feels fine while another is suffering with altitude sickness right next to them. So it seems to me some teams could be more affected than others, especially if any of these visiting teams have players that have played a lot at altitude at the club level.

Yeah that's a logical way to look at it. The same thing could be said about extreme heat. Players more accustomed to dealing with it would have more success, and teams with more of those players would have more ability to deal with it. 

But how much of that goes into Venezuela losing 4-0 vs Ecuador winning 2-1 in Bolivia? Perhaps Ecuador is better equipped to deal with those elevations due to their own geography, but maybe they are also just a better team in general. Hard to say how much of that loss is down to altitude versus Venezuela just not being as good as Ecuador.

[Kent]

8 minutes ago, Obinna said:

Yeah that's a logical way to look at it. The same thing could be said about extreme heat. Players more accustomed to dealing with it would have more success, and teams with more of those players would have more ability to deal with it. 

But how much of that goes into Venezuela losing 4-0 vs Ecuador winning 2-1 in Bolivia? Perhaps Ecuador is better equipped to deal with those elevations due to their own geography, but maybe they are also just a better team in general. Hard to say how much of that loss is down to altitude versus Venezuela just not being as good as Ecuador.

Well if you really want to know which team is better, there are other results to look to. They tied in Venezuela. The other fixtures that they have both played are in Brazil (Venezuela 1-1, Ecuador lost 1-0), and home to Chile (Venezuela won 3-0, Ecuador won 1-0). It's close.

[Obinna]

Just now, Kent said:

Well if you really want to know which team is better, there are other results to look to. They tied in Venezuela. The other fixtures that they have both played are in Brazil (Venezuela 1-1, Ecuador lost 1-0), and home to Chile (Venezuela won 3-0, Ecuador won 1-0). It's close.

Yeah for sure. There is not a big gulf between the teams right now, but let's see how things shake out when it's all said and done in qualifying. Teams can start well and limp over the finish line.

[Obinna]

On 9/5/2024 at 5:55 PM, Kadenge said:

The top 4 in South America WCQ as of today:

1. Argentina 2. Uruguay 3. Colombia 4. Venezuela

It's still sinking in as to how well we did at Copa. We came within a whisker of winning vs 2 out of that top 4.

@Kent for context this post is why I have been talking about Venezuela in my last few posts, specifically their thrashing away to Bolivia. Altitude or not, getting smashed that way is not what you expect from a top 4 CONMEBOL side. They find a way to get the job done (Argentina and Ecuador for instance).

 

[Sal333]

7 minutes ago, Obinna said:

@Kent for context this post is why I have been talking about Venezuela in my last few posts, specifically their thrashing away to Bolivia. Altitude or not, getting smashed that way is not what you expect from a top 4 CONMEBOL side. They find a way to get the job done (Argentina and Ecuador for instance).

 

For the most part I agree with you, but Ecuador didn't get it done in Copa America when it mattered.

 

 

[Obinna]

17 minutes ago, Sal333 said:

For the most part I agree with you, but Ecuador didn't get it done in Copa America when it mattered.

 

 

Very true. And same goes for Venezuela. I think there's more of a top 3 right now in South America than a top 4, but I would look to Brazil figuring it out to form a top 4 once again, if we want to think of the region in those terms. 

[Kadenge]

26 minutes ago, Obinna said:

@Kent for context this post is why I have been talking about Venezuela in my last few posts, specifically their thrashing away to Bolivia. Altitude or not, getting smashed that way is not what you expect from a top 4 CONMEBOL side. They find a way to get the job done (Argentina and Ecuador for instance).

 

@Obinna since my post seems to have generated a lot of discussion, I want to clarify that it stated top 4 "as of today". Sure Venezuela may not stay in 4th but it's a snapshot. Having said that Brazil were poor at Copa and haven't looked good in WCQ so far, so who knows what the standings will be at the end.

[Macksam]

45 minutes ago, Sal333 said:

For the most part I agree with you, but Ecuador didn't get it done in Copa America when it mattered.

 

 

They took Argentina to the brink more so than anybody else that tournament. 

[narduch]

On 9/7/2024 at 1:15 PM, Corazon said:

There’s literally decades of data if you want to look up.  You can stick to your argument, that’s fine.

It’s no coincidence Bolivia’s only South American Championship was as host and their only ever runner up was also as the host nation.  If you need more data points just go and look up historical Copa Libertadores and Sudamérica games of teams from Bolivia (which I watch regularly).  You can fight the argument all you want.  This year’s competitions are a great example of it if you need more data points.

 

10 man Bolivia just beat Colombia 1-0 at home in WCQ

[Corazon]

51 minutes ago, narduch said:

10 man Bolivia just beat Colombia 1-0 at home in WCQ

Colombia was also lucky Bolivia got that red in the 21st minute.  Bolivia was dominating 11 v 11 and Vargas had already made 5 saves for Colombia in the first 15-20 minutes.