Match Thread: World Cup Group F - Matchday 2 - Croatia v Canada - November 27, 2022 - 7pm local time / 11am ET / 8am PT

[ECW]

11 hours ago, scullion44 said:

Their lineup doesn't worry me as much as Belgium but they're definitely more organised. Last night was absolutely chaotic and there's no way sunday will be like that. I don't really know what to expect. 

I saw the Croatia vs Morocco match and Morocco were tenacious and relentless defending the midfield, always 3 or 4 players on Croatia’s three, clogging the midfield and then playing the ball wide. Croatia did not look good under this pressure.

We’ve certainly got the wide play especially if Davies is playing wide, but I haven’t seen us play this way in the midfield before. But we could, I think, if it’s whoever are the two central mids doing this work plus Davies and Buchanan who are both good defenders. 

[TGAA_Star]

22 minutes ago, Ally McCoist said:

I'm worried Herdman's "Eff Croatia" commentary is going to hurt us. I understand he's trying to keep morale high and it's perfectly fine to say that in private. But he should have kept that to himself. He got caught up in the moment and slipped that in the post-match reaction. Croatia are going to use that as fuel.  

God I'm so anxious for Sunday. How am I going to get through two more shifts of work 😭

Yeah that is just going to motivate Croatia even more

[cornerkick]

17 minutes ago, Ally McCoist said:

I'm worried Herdman's "Eff Croatia" commentary is going to hurt us. I understand he's trying to keep morale high and it's perfectly fine to say that in private. But he should have kept that to himself. He got caught up in the moment and slipped that in the post-match reaction. Croatia are going to use that as fuel.  

God I'm so anxious for Sunday. How am I going to get through two more shifts of work 😭

It could be bulletin board material, but it sounds like the Croatian manager brushed it off.  Perhaps he realizes these things happen in the heat of the moment.  Croatia have nothing to prove to Canada.  They were runners up in 2018, have players that have won everything at the club level.  If they play to their potential on Sunday, you'd think it's because they want to improve on their last run, not because of what some manager said. 

The half life for these kinds of things is short, and I think other narratives will come into play by Sunday.

[Kingston]

54 minutes ago, cornerkick said:

It could be bulletin board material, but it sounds like the Croatian manager brushed it off.  Perhaps he realizes these things happen in the heat of the moment.  Croatia have nothing to prove to Canada.  They were runners up in 2018, have players that have won everything at the club level.  If they play to their potential on Sunday, you'd think it's because they want to improve on their last run, not because of what some manager said. 

The half life for these kinds of things is short, and I think other narratives will come into play by Sunday.

And, really, if Croatia needed that to get up for a World Cup match, they have bigger problems than having their feelings hurt by Canada's coach.

[TGAA_Star]

1 hour ago, Kingston said:

And, really, if Croatia needed that to get up for a World Cup match, they have bigger problems than having their feelings hurt by Canada's coach.

If anything it is probably extra motivation for them and it could very well backfire on us Canadians

[Allez les Rouges]

Scenarios for remaining games

In all cases, Canada advances with 2 wins and is eliminated with any further loss; I examine the other cases below.

If BEL/MAR draw
Canada advances with a 2-goal win and a draw.
Canada advances with a 1-goal win and a draw UNLESS tiebreaker goes beyond goal differential and Canada loses it.
Canada is eliminated with 2 draws.

If BEL beats MAR
Canada advances with win vs. CRO and draw vs. MAR UNLESS CRO beats BEL and wins tiebreaker against CAN.
Canada advances with draw vs. CRO and win vs. MAR UNLESS CRO beats BEL.
Canada is eliminated with 2 draws UNLESS BEL beats CRO and CAN wins 3-way tiebreaker.

If MAR beats BEL by x goals
Canada advances with win vs. CRO and draw vs. MAR UNLESS any ONE of the following occurs:
- BEL beats CRO,
- BEL draws CRO and x=1 and CAN beats CRO by only 1 goal and BEL at least matches CAN in total goals,
- CRO beats BEL and wins tiebreaker against CAN.
Canada advances with draw vs. CRO and win vs. MAR UNLESS EITHER of the following occurs:
- BEL does not draw CRO and either CAN beats MAR by 0.5x goals or less or (CAN beats MAR by 0.5x+0.5 goals and has fewer total goals than MAR)
- BEL draws CRO and x=1 and CAN beats MAR by only 1 goal and is not among the two teams advancing via the BEL/CAN/MAR tiebreaker (all 3 teams at 0 differential, so starts with total goals for)
Canada is eliminated with 2 draws.

My takeways:
- Overall, BEL/MAR draw is the best scenario for Canada, although BEL beating MAR is the only case where Canada could advance with 2 draws.
- BEL win is preferable to MAR win if Canada then beats CRO.
- MAR win, especially a small one, is arguably preferable to BEL win if Canada then draws CRO. It would give Canada control of its destiny, but may require a margin of victory against MAR.
- In any case, Canada will need help if it draws MAR on the 3rd matchday UNLESS BEL/MAR draw and Canada beats CRO by 2+ goals, in which case a draw vs. MAR would be guaranteed to suffice.

Edited November 24, 2022 by Allez les Rouges
Grammar

[cornerkick]

8 minutes ago, TGAA_Star said:

If anything it is probably extra motivation for them and it could very well backfire on us Canadians

yeah, it's possible... What would make me uneasy is guaranteeing a win, which is classic NFL, NHL, NBA banter.  Thankfully that didn't happen, and what did happen is pretty tame relative to that.

from Croatia reddit:

https://www.reddit.com/r/croatia/comments/z3sw0w/kanađani_nakon_tekme_sa_belgijom/

Based on # of comments and translation, I don't think it was taken too seriously, nor do ppl care much...  There's probably an ultra supporter forum out there with 20+ pages on it but that's a small (but vocal) minority.

 

[BearcatSA]

1 hour ago, cornerkick said:

yeah, it's possible... What would make me uneasy is guaranteeing a win, which is classic NFL, NHL, NBA banter.  

So I 'm guessing Herdman isn't replacing Hadfield with Mark Messier.

[reggietfc]

i hope we dont get another moral victory

[TOcanadafan]

2 hours ago, cornerkick said:

yeah, it's possible... What would make me uneasy is guaranteeing a win, which is classic NFL, NHL, NBA banter.  Thankfully that didn't happen, and what did happen is pretty tame relative to that.

from Croatia reddit:

https://www.reddit.com/r/croatia/comments/z3sw0w/kanađani_nakon_tekme_sa_belgijom/

Based on # of comments and translation, I don't think it was taken too seriously, nor do ppl care much...  There's probably an ultra supporter forum out there with 20+ pages on it but that's a small (but vocal) minority.

 

Agree with this.  I’m pretty sure the Croatians weren’t going to take us as a serious threat and this wasn’t going to change anything other than give them a bit of a chuckle… they concluded “Belgium bad” not “Canada good” from that match.  Most Croatians have already looked ahead to their Round of 16 match against Japan and a ticket to the Quarterfinals.  

[kacbru]

If you asked me at the start of the tournament if I would take Canada being equal on points with Argentina and Germany after 1 game, I would have taken it.

According to this https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-world-cup-predictions/ our odds are down to 26% to make it out of the group.

Edit: I'll still take it after 3 games.

Edited November 25, 2022 by kacbru

[TGAA_Star]

Canada you have to basically beat Croatia on Sunday to put yourself in prime position to advance. Because if Canada beat Croatia, then that final game against Morocco you would advance with a win or a draw well depending on if Croatia lose or draw against Belgium. But even then I'm sure us Canadians are hoping for Morocco to lose against Belgium. Well that's what I'm really hoping for and praying for. Because then our chances look good going into Sunday. However, our game against Croatia goes on right after Morocco/Belgium because we play at 11 AM and they play at 8AM.

[archer21]

12 hours ago, TOcanadafan said:

Agree with this.  I’m pretty sure the Croatians weren’t going to take us as a serious threat and this wasn’t going to change anything other than give them a bit of a chuckle… they concluded “Belgium bad” not “Canada good” from that match.  Most Croatians have already looked ahead to their Round of 16 match against Japan and a ticket to the Quarterfinals.  

After how they played against Morocco, and how we played against Belgium, I can’t imagine this is the case. They know they need to beat us to avoid needing a win against Belgium in their final match. They were never going to take us lightly.

[The Pessimist]

Although it's nice to receive complements regarding our playing style, I'd rather play lousy and win than play good and lose. For as long as I can remember Canada has been receiving pats on the back for how well we competed while consistently losing. It's time we started winning.

We could help ourselves by simply hitting the net when we shoot. We took 21 shots but only hit the net 3 times. Just not good enough.

 

[Joe MacCarthy]

13 hours ago, BearcatSA said:

So I 'm guessing Herdman isn't replacing Hadfield with Mark Messier.

I don't want Vic on the team, he bailed when things got rough in Moscow

[narduch]

 

 

[Gian-Luca]

I think they may have answered their own question with that photo

[ray]

15 minutes ago, The Pessimist said:

Although it's nice to receive complements regarding our playing style, I'd rather play lousy and win than play good and lose. For as long as I can remember Canada has been receiving pats on the back for how well we competed while consistently losing. It's time we started winning.

We could help ourselves by simply hitting the net when we shoot. We took 21 shots but only hit the net 3 times. Just not good enough.

 

Yes, 36 years ago the "the plucky underdog" exceeding expectations was a valid narrative and all we could hope for.  It feels insulting and a little pathetic now.  Canada need to come out of this tournament with goals and points or we can't say we've done better than 1986.

[The Pessimist]

31 minutes ago, narduch said:

 

 

Herdman's quote was bulletin board material for Croatia. Would this be bulletin board material for Canada? If I were Herdman, probably not.

[Strait Red]

38 minutes ago, Joe MacCarthy said:

I don't want Vic on the team, he bailed when things got rough in Moscow

You’re showing your age with that comment. 😂 

[Joe MacCarthy]

7 minutes ago, Strait Red said:

You’re showing your age with that comment. 😂 

So are you, ageist! 

[reggietfc]

45 minutes ago, narduch said:

o

 

i didnt know they have the toronto sun  in croatia,breaking news kristian com on maybe in the wheeler school of broadcasting it is

 

 

[Joe MacCarthy]

11 minutes ago, The Pessimist said:

Herdman's quote was bulletin board material for Croatia. Would this be bulletin board material for Canada? If I were Herdman, probably not.

I would make comments like Herdman did, back in the day.  I had to, it was the only way I could motivate myself (to avoid humiliation).  It always worked for me. 

Like Josh Gibson, I used to think if the pitcher had two strikes on me, he was in trouble.  Later in life, when I curled, before I threw a big rock, my third would say "Don't f#$k it up!"  That would bring the subliminal doubts to the surface, I would laugh and all was ok.  The mind is an amazing thing.

I think what Herdman said would be good for our guys to try and back it up, and I think we have the right mindset in those guys to do it.  Pressure is what you make of it.  I know no one ever remembers a goalie who didn't make a PK save or a basketball player that takes the final shot and misses.  As long as no one keeps doubling down the comment they'll be ok.  Herdman explained it quite well.

[Kadenge]

1 hour ago, The Pessimist said:

Although it's nice to receive complements regarding our playing style, I'd rather play lousy and win than play good and lose. For as long as I can remember Canada has been receiving pats on the back for how well we competed while consistently losing. It's time we started winning.

 

 

We aren't a powerhouse at this level (yet) for this to happen. The only way for us to win is to play the way we did vs Belgium, but as you say convert at least 1 of our many chances. Hopefully it's 1st WC game jitters for our talented but young forwards

[Sal333]

16 hours ago, Allez les Rouges said:

Scenarios for remaining games

In all cases, Canada advances with 2 wins and is eliminated with any further loss; I examine the other cases below.

If BEL/MAR draw
Canada advances with a 2-goal win and a draw.
Canada advances with a 1-goal win and a draw UNLESS tiebreaker goes beyond goal differential and Canada loses it.
Canada is eliminated with 2 draws.

If BEL beats MAR
Canada advances with win vs. CRO and draw vs. MAR UNLESS CRO beats BEL and wins tiebreaker against CAN.
Canada advances with draw vs. CRO and win vs. MAR UNLESS CRO beats BEL.
Canada is eliminated with 2 draws UNLESS BEL beats CRO and CAN wins 3-way tiebreaker.

If MAR beats BEL by x goals
Canada advances with win vs. CRO and draw vs. MAR UNLESS any ONE of the following occurs:
- BEL beats CRO,
- BEL draws CRO and x=1 and CAN beats CRO by only 1 goal and BEL at least matches CAN in total goals,
- CRO beats BEL and wins tiebreaker against CAN.
Canada advances with draw vs. CRO and win vs. MAR UNLESS EITHER of the following occurs:
- BEL does not draw CRO and either CAN beats MAR by 0.5x goals or less or (CAN beats MAR by 0.5x+0.5 goals and has fewer total goals than MAR)
- BEL draws CRO and x=1 and CAN beats MAR by only 1 goal and is not among the two teams advancing via the BEL/CAN/MAR tiebreaker (all 3 teams at 0 differential, so starts with total goals for)
Canada is eliminated with 2 draws.

My takeways:
- Overall, BEL/MAR draw is the best scenario for Canada, although BEL beating MAR is the only case where Canada could advance with 2 draws.
- BEL win is preferable to MAR win if Canada then beats CRO.
- MAR win, especially a small one, is arguably preferable to BEL win if Canada then draws CRO. It would give Canada control of its destiny, but may require a margin of victory against MAR.
- In any case, Canada will need help if it draws MAR on the 3rd matchday UNLESS BEL/MAR draw and Canada beats CRO by 2+ goals, in which case a draw vs. MAR would be guaranteed to suffice.

Jeeze, man, I was getting dizzy just reading your post. I'm positive I would have had a stroke if I tried to figure out all the iterations like you did.