WCQ: Third Round - Window 3 (November 12-16, 2021)

[Mattd97]

I think its wild that a predictable few who have some other predictable views on other things, seem to be more upset that homophobic changes are being punished when other things aren't, than they are about the other things not being punished.  Why bring up them up at all, other than to show that you're upset they can't chant puta??? Just say punish people for throwing stuff at players, it's not hard.  Then go get vaccinated

[CanadaFan123]

16 minutes ago, Mattd97 said:

I think its wild that a predictable few who have some other predictable views on other things, seem to be more upset that homophobic changes are being punished when other things aren't, than they are about the other things not being punished.  Why bring up them up at all, other than to show that you're upset they can't chant puta??? Just say punish people for throwing stuff at players, it's not hard.  Then go get vaccinated

Not sure who you’re referring to here. 

Both are wrong. But you can’t ignore the irony of the fact nothing dangerous has been punished in CONCACAF in years yet now they’re taking action. Also the fact the World Cup is literally in a homophobic country but come December 2022 that will be fine. 

Edited October 16, 2021 by CanadaFan123

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

On 10/14/2021 at 2:51 PM, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

Osorio and Laryea won't need to worry about being fit and recovery after these WCQing matches. Vancouver and Montreal may also find themselves in similar situations.

Apologies, forgot about the Voyageurs Cup match!

The final will be after the November window.

Edited October 16, 2021 by Olympique_de_Marseille

[footballfreak]

9 hours ago, rkomar said:

I actually was a nuclear physicist in school and afterwards, and spent a lot of time writing and running Monte Carlo simulations.  I don't need any lessons in what they are, or what a Poisson distribution is (although I could use an explanation as to why Poisson distributions might be used here when they are only meant to apply to cases where the probability of something happening is very small).  The problem isn't that the predictions of these can change with new results, it's that they can change so much.  If Jamaica's chance of qualifying can go from 4% to 8% in two games, what did that 4% really mean?  Were we really supposed to believe that Jamaica only had a 1 in 25 chance of qualifying, which is pretty hopeless?

We as fans know what we want the numbers to mean, I just question whether they are really what we want them to be.

Jamaica actually bottomed out after round 5 at 2.4% (top 3) and 7.7% (top 4). If that feels low, please consider this snapshot after 5 games:

• Before the ocho started, most projections and pundits estimated that the threshold for qualifying in the top 3 would probably fall somewhere between 20-24 poins, with 24 points pretty much representing a stone cold lock for qualification and ~17-20 points being good for 4th. However, it should be noted that Canada’s projected total has slowly been ticking towards the upper edge of that range (23.7), so the target is not a static one for Jamaica. The higher that target goes, the less likely it becomes that they can catch us even if they get hot.
• But let’s be generous and say a total of 20 gets you over the line. Jamaica would have needed to average 6W-0D-3L or 5W-3D-1L in a schedule with tough home games remaining against USA/Mexico and road trips to Honduras, Canada, Panama and El Salvador. There are maybe 3 games in that stretch where they would be considered better than 50/50. Even if we assume a 50/50 coin flip model with no draws, they only reach 6 wins or more 25.4% of the time. If you assume 23 points (7 wins) is the the threshold, those odds dip to 9.0%. And that’s before you consider...
• By ELO rating, Jamaica are the 6th best team in the ocho. Maybe they’re actually better than that, but so far the the limited results we have say they are pretty much who we thought they were. They’re already going into most games as an underdog, so a coinflip model overestimates them.
• It’s not a two horse race. There are other teams involved, and every single one of them was ahead of Jamaica in the standings at that point. This is the big one that drastically cut into their odds. They not only had to overcome a 6 point deficit in only 9 games, they needed to leapfrog 5 other teams. Even in the tail-end outcomes where Canada/Panama both fall off dramatically, and the points threshold is lowered, and the stars align for Jamaica, some other team pips them to that third spot more often than not by virtue of being better positioned to take advantage.
• Home advantage. We all know. I think the number was something crazy like a 17% win rate on the road since the Hex began, but I wasn’t able to retrieve that stat.
• Draws do very little for Jamaica given the hole they’re in, so they need road wins. They got one, and they probably need at least 1-2 more. Not easy. Not likely.

Can they do all that and make the top 3? Sure. How likely is it though? I would argue that 2.4% (~1 in 42) to finish top 3, and 7.7% (1 in 13) is completely reasonable for a last place team through 35% of the schedule. 1 in 13 is certainly not hopeless given how deep a hole they were in, and even 1 in 42 is 6x as likely as having twins (1 in 250). Is the prospect of having twins hopeless? You can quibble over a few percentage points, but it’s not like Jaimaica were underestimated by an order of magnitude. 

Flash forward to round 6. Almost every result that needed to go their way went their way. They won away from home and 4 of the 5 teams directly above them dropped all 3 points. Honduras in particular tanked their chances in a massive way. Despite that, Jamaica currently sit at 6.4% (not 8%) to finish top 3 and 23.6% to finish top 4. That seems like a pretty fair chance seeing as they still sit 6th, haven’t played very well, and are still in a hole.

——

Regarding the use of poisson distribution, I found a brief explanation from El Noido.

QuoteTo be clear here - there's a pretty complex model at work using elo differences, home/away, which models average expected score for each team, then uses a poisson distribution to randomize the outcome. Knowing the results so far, I then model the remainder of the Octagonal 5000 times, and what you see here is the summary of outcomes. It's been a passion project for me for the last about year and a half... I have models for every confederation (including weird ass OFC) and even on to projecting world cup odds!

 

[Unnamed Trialist]

So, as we stand, what are our real chances of making Pot 3  ?

 

[lamptern]

34 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

So, as we stand, what are our real chances of making Pot 3  ?

 

Well, from 2018 pot 3 we can predict teams between ranking 20-30 will be in this pot. That's the range beteen Senegal (1555pts) and Algeria (1498pts). If the target not moving up significantly, we (1416pts) need to close a gap of 82 points minimum. 

I don't know how to calculate, let our experts to tell us if that's doable from 8 wins in a row to complete our WCQ.

[jtpc]

According to this tweet, 6 members of the Costa Rican delegation have tested positive for covid since their match a few days ago. 3 of the 6 are 2 players and the coach.

 

Edited October 17, 2021 by jtpc

[dyslexic nam]

3 minutes ago, jtpc said:

According to this tweet, 6 members of the Costa Rican delegation have tested positive for covid since their match a few days ago. 3 of the 6 are 2 players and the coach.

 

Not good.  At their age that sort of thing can be pretty serious.  

Sorry, not funny.  I really do hope they all recover to full health after the November window.  
 

[jtpc]

9 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

Not good.  At their age that sort of thing can be pretty serious.  

Sorry, not funny.  I really do hope they all recover to full health after the November window.  
 

I posted it as an information item that people may not have seen yet.

Of course it's not funny. Why on earth would you assume that was the intent of the post?

[dyslexic nam]

10 minutes ago, jtpc said:

I posted it as an information item that people may not have seen yet.

Of course it's not funny. Why on earth would you assume that was the intent of the post?

I didn’t think you posted it as funny.  I debated making a poor attempt at humour.   Probably made the wrong choice.  

[Weng]

1 minute ago, dyslexic nam said:

I didn’t think you posted it as funny.  I debated making a poor attempt at humour.   Probably made the wrong choice.  

I understood you.  Costa Rica is a very old team, and you were taking a shot at their age.  I had a small chuckle 

[Sal333]

31 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

I didn’t think you posted it as funny.  I debated making a poor attempt at humour.   Probably made the wrong choice.  

Some people like gallows (dark) humour and some don't. I do but I'm such a dunce your joke went over my head until I read the other post that explained it. I had forgotten that Costa Rica was an old team. I did chuckle once I got it. Props to you.

[SpursFlu]

I'm sure they'll die... but based on science they wont

[RS]

22 minutes ago, SpursFlu said:

I'm sure they'll die... but based on science they wont

Based on science everyone dies.

[Sal333]

25 minutes ago, RS said:

Based on science everyone dies.

You don't even have to base it on science. Anecdotal evidence is enough.

[dyslexic nam]

Let’s not reopen another chapter in that debate.  

[maccaliam]

54 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

Let’s not reopen another chapter in that debate.  

The immortal debate? That explains Alphonso. 

[jtpc]

If we can get the job done against Costa Rica, I think all the possible result scenarios for the US/Mexico match look pretty good.

If Mexico wins, the points would be 17, 13, 11 and we'd move ahead of the US into 2nd.

If the US and Mexico draw, the points would be 15, 13, 12 and we'd move ahead of the US into 2nd.

If the US wins, it's basically a dead heat at 14, 14, 13.

We were fantastic in our match against Costa Rica in the Gold Cup Quarter-Final. I hope we can duplicate that performance on November 12th.

Edited October 18, 2021 by jtpc

[MauditYvon]

22 minutes ago, jtpc said:

 

If the US wins, it's basically a dead heat at 14, 14, 13.

 

😍

[CanadaFan123]

After what we did to Costa Rica in July, if we can’t dominate them at home it’s going to be disappointing.

[frmr]

6 hours ago, jtpc said:

I posted it as an information item that people may not have seen yet.

Of course it's not funny. Why on earth would you assume that was the intent of the post?

Whoosh.

[shorty]

2 hours ago, jtpc said:

If the US and Mexico draw, the points would be 15, 13, 12 and we'd move ahead of the US into 2nd.

After which we beat Mexico to go top of the table.... regardless of what the US does in their second game.

 

Edited October 18, 2021 by shorty

[B_Leaf]

On 10/16/2021 at 1:14 PM, CanadaFan123 said:

Not sure who you’re referring to here. 

Both are wrong. But you can’t ignore the irony of the fact nothing dangerous has been punished in CONCACAF in years yet now they’re taking action. Also the fact the World Cup is literally in a homophobic country but come December 2022 that will be fine. 

There is an ignore feature on the site.

[nolando]

Might be posted elsewhere but Panama and El Salvador have been given stadium consequences for fan behavior in their September matches: http://www.insideworldfootball.com/2021/10/18/panama-el-salvador-sanctioned-closed-stadia-fans-homophobic-chants-us/

[Cheeta]

El Salvador got off lucky, closing the stands behind the goals only?  Lovely.  What, no sactioning for when El Salvador played Mexico on the 13th?  Slurs are a no-no but missles from the grandstand are OK?  Speaking of Mexico, their suspended sentance wasn't rescinded for the slurs tossed out when they hosted Canada?  That's just as lovely.

Well, we could go with a glass half full approach.  It's progress.  I guess.