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WCQ: Third Round - Window 3 (November 12-16, 2021)


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20 hours ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

 

4) Bayern, Besiktas, Lille, Moreirense, Panetolikos, St Johnstone and Reading all play on the Saturday (Nov 6th). 

Pacos, Hatayspor, Basel & Rangers play on the Sunday (November 7th). Red Star Belgrade likely will too (Europa League)

 

This is BIG for our big guns David and Davies. David has gone Sunday games last 2 windows and Azteca was Thursday. Going to be 2 extra days rest for David this time :).  

Edited by apbsmith
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2 hours ago, scullion44 said:

Mexico playing USA away right before us with their key players on a yellow card is massive for us. I hope it's a rough game.

Holy shit. I didn't realize this. 
This is Mexicos toughest window, and quiet possibly the USAs with their game against Jamaica away. 

Wait for it.....this window has become our most important one yet, as we'll have the potential to close the gap on Mexico or overtake the USA.

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27 minutes ago, hulkrogan said:

I think we need to slow down a little.

June: "I hope we beat Suriname, I'm nervous with all of their Dutch call ups"

October:  "We'd better fucking destroy Mexico or I'm done with this team"

The only time I read or heard that comment was in your post. No one has expressed that sentiment. Nice attempt at creating  a strawman.

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17 hours ago, trc2014 said:

More jersey chasing than bandwagoning.  That whole thing was orchestrated yesterday so he could get Davies game jersey. 

Well he didn't get the game jersey ;)

I was in section 114.

Post game when the team came over, a 10 year old kid blew through security and ran onto the field up to Davies. Poked him on the shoulder and asked Davies for his jersey. Davies lifted his arms , with his huge Davies smile almost like 'how did you get on the field'? Davies took off the jersey and gave it to the kid and the kid bare hugged Davies. Security ran up to the kid and escorted him off....

 

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6 minutes ago, RS said:

 

Herc has been praising Canada for awhile now from before the start of this final round. I agree with everything he says except for the part where he claims Herdman has Canada punching above their weight. I think he's wrong. Herdman is making sure they're punching their weight. Even a huge fan like Herc hasn't quite realized the quality on this team.

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9 hours ago, Sal333 said:

Herc has been praising Canada for awhile now from before the start of this final round. I agree with everything he says except for the part where he claims Herdman has Canada punching above their weight. I think he's wrong. Herdman is making sure they're punching their weight. Even a huge fan like Herc hasn't quite realized the quality on this team.

So basically you are saying Herdman is a lot worse than Herc thinks? 

Because of course, if he is just getting the bare minimum results to expect from the players, he is just a bare minimum level coach. I'm going to tell John you said this on the board, and he won't be happy.

I get the hyperbole but it betrays you over and over again. 

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9 hours ago, RS said:

He's a smart journalist because he knows how to get at the bloated mindsets of these Mexican journalists. 

Still, that the guy upper left was arguing that Lozano (and not Jiménez) was the best player in the region and thus Mexico, where does that put Lozano in the context of losing the Gold Cup and the Nations League? I mean, the best player in the region could not ensure the best team won two trophies. At least if he'd said Raul J. he'd have given Mexico an excuse. 

Most teams with gloried histories, even though Mexico is a lot less gloried than they think, have droves of journalists like this living off them. And then, as a piquant minority, the Hercs come along.

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8 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

So basically you are saying Herdman is a lot worse than Herc thinks? 

Because of course, if he is just getting the bare minimum results to expect from the players, he is just a bare minimum level coach. I'm going to tell John you said this on the board, and he won't be happy.

I get the hyperbole but it betrays you over and over again. 

What exactly betrays me? And how does it betray me? You got me mixed up with some other poster because you've liked every post of mine where I talk about Herdman. Every one except for this one. Maybe you're betraying yourself.

Also, you're putting words into my mouth. I never said he's getting the bare minimum. You said that and now you're trying to shove those words into my mouth. I said Herdman has got them punching at their level. Herc has miscalculated the talent on this team and thinks the quality he sees is mostly Herdman's doing.

See how what I said is completely different from the horseshit you claimed I said?

Edited by Sal333
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I am definitely hoping for a win against Mexico although I don’t expect it.  That being said, playing them in the cold on turf (and after their match against the US) puts us at an advantage and frankly, after the Gold Cup and Azteca, I just think we match up really well against them. They just struggle with the combination of our speed, strength and technical ability.  I honestly think we have a better chance against them in Nov in Edmonton than against the US in Jan in Vancouver even if I think overall, they are still the best side in the region. 

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10 minutes ago, An Observer said:

I am definitely hoping for a win against Mexico although I don’t expect it.  That being said, playing them in the cold on turf (and after their match against the US) puts us at an advantage and frankly, after the Gold Cup and Azteca, I just think we match up really well against them. They just struggle with the combination of our speed, strength and technical ability.  I honestly think we have a better chance against them in Nov in Edmonton than against the US in Jan in Vancouver even if I think overall, they are still the best side in the region. 

I think they the can beat Mexico , no doubt about it, but do I automatically expect it no. This is going to be a tough match. 

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Need to pure focus on Costa Rica, whatever it takes to get 3 points vs Costa Rica then move onto the next task. 

Qualification is a war but one bad match, can be devastating. Best Example: Jamaica

Panama winning and getting 3 points away in Jamaica.

That one match, has had incredible implications in the standings and could ultimately be Jamaica's entire demise.  

 

Edited by apbsmith
vs*
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9 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

Simulations are meaningless unless you are making anticipate decisions based on them. Go buy your tickets to Qatar today if you think otherwise.

It's even insulting to ELO that you'd even equate them. 

Regardless, this is totally flawed. None of the upcoming matches repeats, many of the precedents for "prediction" of the previous matches, many of the key parameters are different in each case. So you can't extrapolate anything from the first six results: one team we haven't played, another we see at home now, another was just starting and now has its back to the wall. Another may be eliminated when we see them. Coaches will have changed. 

This is just pseudo stats, which I like as much as pseudo science. 

Further: the whole point for us, unlike Mexico say, is to break the predictor's back. The whole pont is to fuck predictors for once. 

It's probability based on the most likely outcomes of the higher ELO ranked team beating the lower ranked ELO ranked team with a small bias for home field. The simulation is run 5000 times. Obviously it's not a perfect model but it will be correct more often than it's not. 

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1 hour ago, BuzzAndSting said:

It's probability based on the most likely outcomes of the higher ELO ranked team beating the lower ranked ELO ranked team with a small bias for home field. The simulation is run 5000 times. Obviously it's not a perfect model but it will be correct more often than it's not. 

Or, alternatively, a model will never be correct.  We won't 75% qualify for the WC - we either do or we don't. 

I can't tell you what the next flip of a coin will be.  But we can tell you what its chances are. 

We can't be as accurate with the probability of soccer games, but we can make an educated guess - which is all this is. 

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25 minutes ago, sstackho said:

Or, alternatively, a model will never be correct.  We won't 75% qualify for the WC - we either do or we don't. 

I can't tell you what the next flip of a coin will be.  But we can tell you what its chances are. 

We can't be as accurate with the probability of soccer games, but we can make an educated guess - which is all this is. 

Perfectly put. Please keep up the analysis (I should figure out how to use el_noido's files too). Don't let people who hate math-based analytics discourage you.

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