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WCQ: Third Round - Window 3 (November 12-16, 2021)


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16 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

So we are going into the Costa Rica match with a few players on cards. I think it is Eustàquio, Piette, Kaye and perhaps Laryea? Someone confirm this?

What do we do, who do we risk losing for the Mexico match? 

We could choose to not play Eustaquio vs. CR, so he's fresh for Mexico. I am fine with a midfield featuring Piette, Osorio and Kaye vs. Costa Rica, for example.

But again: Stephan he was our best player vs. CR in the Gold Cup, so you might think they suit him well, and they have some midfield talent, however ageing, you might want to match.

The other thing is what Mexico might come our way with after playing the US. They have Moreno the defender, Lozano and Raúl Jiménez on cards. If they all get cards in a spiritied US match, that puts us in a very good position as their best 2 attackers and a good defender would be out. I would not put it past them to see reds in Cincinnati (the US too). Both teams are going all out there for sure.  If Mexico beat the US, they might decide not to kill themselves in the chill of Edmonton as well. If they lose vs. the US, it will be different and they'll come harder, cold be damned.

Tough questions, since even if we draw Mexico is it a good result. But if we draw Costa Rica most will be saying we underperformed. I say go all out vs. Costa Rica, as Mexico may come with player's missing and with less motivation than most visits.

We'll want 3-4 points from this Edmonton window (if we beat CR but lose to a good Mexico we'd have to accept that, even though it may put us back in 4th spot). 

I think you have to go all out against Costa Rica. That is the match with the highest chance of getting a win.

Besides this window is different. The first match is on the Friday so there will be an extra days rest once the players arrive. And the 2nd match is 4 days later instead of 3.

Its only a 2-match window. Go all out both games.

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5 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

There are 8 games left and we simply aren’t going to grab 24 points.  That is reality.  There will be stumbles and slip ups from everyone - including us.   And to be blunt Mexico could be one of those games.   

Of course we all want 6 points.  And I will be cheering hard on the stands to help make it happen.  But disappointed with 4 points?  Not me.  That will keep us chugging steadily towards Qatar.  
 

Not all 8 games will be at home games. We should win the next two. Of course we need our A team and not have half our A players injured like in this past window.

Edited by Sal333
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Just now, narduch said:

I think you have to go all out against Costa Rica. That is the match with the highest chance of getting a win.

Besides this window is different. The first match is on the Friday so there will be an extra days rest once the players arrive. And the 2nd match is 4 days later instead of 3.

Its only a 2-match window. Go all out both games.

A two game window is really a completely different beast than the three. It will really let Canada go all out in both matches. Another big factor that can not be underestimated is both games being in the same place, so no travel during the window, they can all just focus at the task at hand. It will be a benefit to the players. 

We will also have the first USA Mexico matchup, which will be interesting as points will be lost or gained by the two teams ahead in the table, outside of a draw . Mexico has both of of its games on the road, vs. the US in Cincinnati and four days later in Edmonton. How that first game goes for them could really have an affect on the temperament of the match at Canada. The US is at Jamaica after and we know who knows what it will be like down there, especially with that pitch. 

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2 minutes ago, theaub said:

Anything less than 6 points is a disappointment to me this window.

Win your home matches, book flights to Qatar, fin.

Disagree. The points we need is dependent on what others do. Ideally we put space between us and those behind us, but that can happen based on other results. 

This window is the best window for taking it match by match. We can't look past Costa Rica and have to play for everything there to put space between us and them. 

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18 minutes ago, RJB said:

Disagree. The points we need is dependent on what others do. Ideally we put space between us and those behind us, but that can happen based on other results. 

This window is the best window for taking it match by match. We can't look past Costa Rica and have to play for everything there to put space between us and them. 

I don't see how needing to beat Costa Rica would result in looking past Costa Rica?

 

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15 minutes ago, RJB said:

Disagree. The points we need is dependent on what others do. Ideally we put space between us and those behind us, but that can happen based on other results. 

This window is the best window for taking it match by match. We can't look past Costa Rica and have to play for everything there to put space between us and them. 

As long as Canada qualifies why would anyone care where they finish 1, 2 or3. So with that thinking what is the best result for Canada from the US Mexico match. A draw would keep both teams close but a Mexico win would get them ahead and keep the US down. Keeping even a single point from the US could be huge down the line. 

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1 minute ago, Mattd97 said:

All of a sudden people are expecting wins against Mexico

Wanting to win and expected them to are two very different things here. Mexico is still the team to beat here. The Edmonton could have just as much effect on Canada as it does Mexico. A crazy snow storm or something I do not really view as an advantage, it would bog down both teams. This team believe they can win this game , and they very well could, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves, there is still a lot of very tough football to be played ahead. 

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Here are my longer thoughts on this

- This is the only window in the entire cycle where a team does not travel.  We land in Edmonton and stay there for a week.

- On the flipside, our last two windows are the worst travel situations that anyone in the cycle will need to face (Central America -> Canada -> Central America)

- Whether its the Jamaica match last week or the past 25 years of qualifying, we've seen how difficult it is to win away (although I definitely think our mentaility is significantly improved) - and that includes teams like Mexico and the US, both of whom had trouble in Panama.

I don't think we are doomed etc if we draw/lose to Mexico...if that happens and we miss out by a point or whatever its still pretty clear the Honduras match is the missed opportunity.  But the way that everything sets up in this window I don't think there's anything wrong with hoping that we end it in an extremely good position.

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10 minutes ago, Cblake said:

As long as Canada qualifies why would anyone care where they finish 1, 2 or3. So with that thinking what is the best result for Canada from the US Mexico match. A draw would keep both teams close but a Mexico win would get them ahead and keep the US down. Keeping even a single point from the US could be huge down the line. 

A Mexico win in the first match would leave us with a good chance to leapfrog the USA. That said, I don't want Mexico to have already punched their ticket before the last 2 or 3 matches when they could be taking points from a rival.

Edited by jonovision
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1 minute ago, jonovision said:

A Mexico win leaving us with a good chance to leapfrog the USA. That said, I don't want Mexico to have already punched their ticket before the last 2 or 3 matches when they could be taking points from a rival.

I still think Mexico would be motivated to knock off the US at home in Match, but I do agree them having nothing to play for in the last window would not be ideal. 

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1 hour ago, dyslexic nam said:

There are 8 games left and we simply aren’t going to grab 24 points.  That is reality.  There will be stumbles and slip ups from everyone - including us.   And to be blunt Mexico could be one of those games.   

Of course we all want 6 points.  And I will be cheering hard on the stands to help make it happen.  But disappointed with 4 points?  Not me.  That will keep us chugging steadily towards Qatar.  
 

Totally agree. Mexico is tough anywhere. Costa Rica will be desperate as well. 6 points is of course possible but I wouldn't be disappointed with 4 points.

 

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10 hours ago, narduch said:

Panama has Honduras away and are home to El Salvador in November. They could theoretically leap frog us if we don't win both matches 

I think this is real possibility, although their Honduras match will basically be the latter's final chance to get into the mix for the 4th spot. We may find ourselves in tight with them the whole way, even to the final match near the Canal. I say this, because frankly, I think they are pretty good. 

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Costa Rica is 100% must win, don't weaken that starting 11 just because you have Mexico next. Not saying we approach Mexico like we don't expect anything from it, we've proven that we can go to war with them. But there's enough time between matches that there shouldn't be squad rotation required unless for tactical reasons or suspensions. If we have suspensions for the Mexico game, so be it, the silver lining is we clear cards for the January window. But most important is locking down those 3 points from CR first

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2 hours ago, dyslexic nam said:

I will be satisfied even if we come away with 3 points from this one.  I won’t be thrilled and would definitely prefer 4 or 6, but I won’t view the window as a failure if we only get one win.  Thus I think we play our best against CR and hopefully someone like Staq doesn’t get a 2nd yellow.  I know Kaye and Oso have also been playing a lot but Staq is the main one of the 4 that I hope would be available for Mexico.

The other thing to think about is that the game after Mexico is away to Honduras.  So far at home they have lost to the US and Jamaica, and tied Costa Rica.  If ever there was a time to get an away win in Honduras (shades of Jamaica I know) it seems like it is now.  It would also be poetic to out the mail in their coffin in San Pedro Sula.  And after the Honduras game we are hosting the US - another really important game where we will want a result.  

Having a key player like Staq miss the Mexico game due to yellow accumulation might be unfortunate but it would also clear his account for the remaining matches.  And as much as some really want to “have a go” at Mexico in this campaign I wouldn’t prioritize that game over any of the other 3 I mentioned because I think they all offer some pretty crucial points.

I’m sure both you and I agree that we are happy that Mexico is the second game this window.

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1 hour ago, Cheeta said:

Everyone stays healthy between now and November we'll never have a better chance.  

Would feel 300% better coming out of 2021 with 16 points, but 14 still puts us on schedule as far as I'm concerned.

Never had a better chance is not expected to win.  Mexico is the 9th ranked best team in the world.  A win would still be a significant upset, and it’s possible but being dejected with less than is ignorant.

Edited by trc2014
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9 hours ago, trc2014 said:

Never had a better chance is not expected to win.  Mexico is the 9th ranked best team in the world.  A win would still be a significant upset, and it’s possible but being dejected with less than is ignorant.

Looking at FIFA ranking simulators: if we beat both CR and Mexico, we will be close or into top 40 in the world. 

In the new year, since UEFA qualifying will have ended, our matches will be even more meaningful for ranking. 

Yes, I have my mind set on Pot 3.

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3 hours ago, Sal333 said:

There are no reasons to settle for 3-4 points from the next two games. We want 6.  4 points will be a slight disappointment. We have to start thinking like we're a top team in the region - maybe even the top-est of the top.

I think we need to slow down a little.

June: "I hope we beat Suriname, I'm nervous with all of their Dutch call ups"

October:  "We'd better fucking destroy Mexico or I'm done with this team"

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