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WCQ: Third Round - Window 3 (November 12-16, 2021)


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1 hour ago, Approve My Account Pls said:

He's definitely a major bandwagoner, however, I'll guarantee you more people globally and in Canada saw Davies jersey on Drake's instagram than any other piece of football based social media combined. So for a forum that talks about not enough eyeballs and CSA being cash strapped quite a lot, there isn't a better source of promotion

More jersey chasing than bandwagoning.  That whole thing was orchestrated yesterday so he could get Davies game jersey. 

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I really do believe Canada is in great position to qualify for Qatar, but there's still lots of work to do. they are certainly battle tested after their last two matches, which saw them grab four of a possible six points. Now it is time to for them to step up and take control of things at home, have their own dos a cero moment vs. Mexico after taking on Costa Rica. As many have said Edmonton will present its challenges to both sides in each game as the weather could take a turn for the worse, which in my eyes really will not benefit anyone especially playing on turf. Canada has put itself in a great position to at least be at the table for a top 3 position.  Being only six games into this qualifying plan there is still a lot of football still to be played. I cannot emphasize enough how drastic the difference is right now based on the below chart of being in fourth and fifth place right now, a mere two points apart.

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2 hours ago, Approve My Account Pls said:

He's definitely a major bandwagoner, however, I'll guarantee you more people globally and in Canada saw Davies jersey on Drake's instagram than any other piece of football based social media combined. So for a forum that talks about not enough eyeballs and CSA being cash strapped quite a lot, there isn't a better source of promotion

Theres no such thing about being a bandwagon fan when you're supporting your country. 

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Since there won't be any new fun to be had with el_noido's Elo-based simulation model for a while, I thought I'd see what happens to Canada's chances of making the Top 3 based on the result of the Costa Rica match. 

Here is how things look after Matchday 6:

image.png.effc7c289721019366a354ba21e196db.png

So Canada currently has a theoretical 78% chance of finishing in the Top 3.  And this is what happens to Canada's Top 3 chance based on the result of the Costa Rica match.

  image.png.952094bf57a4a54b8b1166bcbb86c073.png

Gotta win your home games. 

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1 hour ago, maplebanana said:

Not sure if this was mentioned elsewhere (apologies, if so), but Keylor Navas got injured yesterday. So much so he was subbed out at half. 

https://www.marca.com/en/football/psg/2021/10/14/61680be0268e3e9d2d8b459b.html

CRC w/o Navas becomes a lot more pedestrian. 

You saw it in the second half vs the US. The backline was much less confident in their play. Plus, it would have likely ended in a draw as maybe the own goal wouldn't have occurred.

 

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Longish time lurker, first time posting here on this current iteration of V's forum. I currently live in Edmonton and several of my casual sports fan friends are asking me when tickets go on sale.. so I really hope the demand is there. This is the first MNT game we've had in Edmonton since I moved here 5 years ago and the first MNT game I've been to since 2015, so I'll be there in full voice.

Oilers are on a road trip during the entire November window.. that can't hurt in terms of attendance.

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25 minutes ago, weathermanfran said:

Longish time lurker, first time posting here on this current iteration of V's forum. I currently live in Edmonton and several of my casual sports fan friends are asking me when tickets go on sale.. so I really hope the demand is there. This is the first MNT game we've had in Edmonton since I moved here 5 years ago and the first MNT game I've been to since 2015, so I'll be there in full voice.

Oilers are on a road trip during the entire November window.. that can't hurt in terms of attendance.

My question would be with two games so close to each other in the same city, a mere four days apart can you sell out both at 56,302? The time is there to do it. I can only imagine Wednesday night in Toronto will be a catalyst in moving a lot of tickets out west, this is one exciting team to watch with some big stars. What a time for the men's national team.

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4 minutes ago, Cblake said:

Have a flight all ready booked. Can not wait. 

I wanna book too.  Just don’t want to get burned and they move it to Montreal or covid cases break out during the winter and there are no fans.  I feel like the latter is less likely now but the last 18 months, all bets are off  

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18 minutes ago, Cblake said:

Have a flight all ready booked. Can not wait. 

We don’t even need to make small talk. You message me while we are there and I buy you a drink for flying in for the cause. 

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7 hours ago, sstackho said:

Since there won't be any new fun to be had with el_noido's Elo-based simulation model for a while, I thought I'd see what happens to Canada's chances of making the Top 3 based on the result of the Costa Rica match. 

Here is how things look after Matchday 6:

image.png.effc7c289721019366a354ba21e196db.png

So Canada currently has a theoretical 78% chance of finishing in the Top 3.  And this is what happens to Canada's Top 3 chance based on the result of the Costa Rica match.

  image.png.952094bf57a4a54b8b1166bcbb86c073.png

Gotta win your home games. 

Simulations are meaningless unless you are making anticipate decisions based on them. Go buy your tickets to Qatar today if you think otherwise.

It's even insulting to ELO that you'd even equate them. 

Regardless, this is totally flawed. None of the upcoming matches repeats, many of the precedents for "prediction" of the previous matches, many of the key parameters are different in each case. So you can't extrapolate anything from the first six results: one team we haven't played, another we see at home now, another was just starting and now has its back to the wall. Another may be eliminated when we see them. Coaches will have changed. 

This is just pseudo stats, which I like as much as pseudo science. 

Further: the whole point for us, unlike Mexico say, is to break the predictor's back. The whole pont is to fuck predictors for once. 

Edited by Unnamed Trialist
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12 hours ago, Wayverider said:

There are multiple theories on what separates this Canadian team from those of the past: the plethora of Canadian depth we now possess, Herdman’s infusion of confidence, grassroots Canadian soccer finally bearing fruit, etc... For my money it’s the very rare attribute of exceptional speed. Speed, speed, speed!!! Davies, Buchanan, Laryea!

On at least a dozen occasions during this round of WC qualifiers (6 games) I can recall the above three players being jockeyed outside by an opponent but blowing by with speed and being able to cut hard towards the net. This in turn forces opposing defenders and even the keeper to have to abandon the space they are defending, leading to high quality scoring opportunities. Davies demonstrates this speed on a level that is crazy insane. Buchanan and Laryea demonstrate it at a world class level (that some of our opponents can’t match). Having a trio of players with this kind of speed is remarkable. 

Speed forces opposing teams to stack-defend specific areas of the field, always attempting to have a first and second defender when Davies for example possesses the ball. But this only opens space for other players and Canada is now knee deep in talent. Furthermore defenders deal with exceptional speed by reading body cues and anticipating passes with an objective of dropping faster in an attempt to negate their opponent’s speed. But this just opens up more space for the speedster to dribble and pass. When you have three players with this kind of threat on one team it can wreak havoc defensively.

Consider, Buchanan and Laryea didn’t play in Jamaica, so it was easier for the Jamaicans to concentrate on Davies and neutralize his skill set (notwithstanding the fact the field was sketchy as well). Consider also there were at least two 6-7 minute segments in the Panama game in which Panama totally dominated possession and appeared to taking over momentum - but unlike us they didn’t have a speedster who could break our shape with either a final pass long ball or short through pass.

I’m loving this team and all of its pieces and dimensions, but for me it’s speed that is consistently separating our play from that of our opponents. 

I would definitely agree that our speed is a huge part.  It could even prove to be more lethal if we finish chances a little better.  I think there are a few other things too.  Our ability to win balls back, the defending by players like Johnston, Vitoria, Estaquio or Atibi have played a big role. 

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5 hours ago, EJsens1 said:

I wanna book too.  Just don’t want to get burned and they move it to Montreal or covid cases break out during the winter and there are no fans.  I feel like the latter is less likely now but the last 18 months, all bets are off  

Can not really see it going to the Big O, the CSA really will have no interest among other things of taking a chance with a typical January snow storm and having to postpone it due build up on the roof. It was such a good deal at $240 return from Toronto to Vancouver that at worst I will have a credit with Air Canada down the line.

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1 hour ago, B_Leaf said:

I would definitely agree that our speed is a huge part.  It could even prove to be more lethal if we finish chances a little better.  I think there are a few other things too.  Our ability to win balls back, the defending by players like Johnston, Vitoria, Estaquio or Atibi have played a big role. 

I think it’s the combo of speed with strength and technique.  Ricketts is/was fast but he didn’t have the technique so wasn’t really effective.  Mexico has better technique but they can’t deal with our collective strength and speed.  It’s that combination that makes us so effective in this region.  

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So we are going into the Costa Rica match with a few players on cards. I think it is Eustàquio, Piette, Kaye and perhaps Laryea? Someone confirm this?

What do we do, who do we risk losing for the Mexico match? 

We could choose to not play Eustaquio vs. CR, so he's fresh for Mexico. I am fine with a midfield featuring Piette, Osorio and Kaye vs. Costa Rica, for example.

But again: Stephan he was our best player vs. CR in the Gold Cup, so you might think they suit him well, and they have some midfield talent, however ageing, you might want to match.

The other thing is what Mexico might come our way with after playing the US. They have Moreno the defender, Lozano and Raúl Jiménez on cards. If they all get cards in a spiritied US match, that puts us in a very good position as their best 2 attackers and a good defender would be out. I would not put it past them to see reds in Cincinnati (the US too). Both teams are going all out there for sure.  If Mexico beat the US, they might decide not to kill themselves in the chill of Edmonton as well. If they lose vs. the US, it will be different and they'll come harder, cold be damned.

Tough questions, since even if we draw Mexico is it a good result. But if we draw Costa Rica most will be saying we underperformed. I say go all out vs. Costa Rica, as Mexico may come with player's missing and with less motivation than most visits.

We'll want 3-4 points from this Edmonton window (if we beat CR but lose to a good Mexico we'd have to accept that, even though it may put us back in 4th spot). 

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4 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

So we are going into the Costa Rica match with a few players on cards. I think it is Eustàquio, Piette, Kaye and perhaps Laryea? Someone confirm this?

What do we do, who do we risk losing for the Mexico match? 

We could choose to not play Eustaquio vs. CR, so he's fresh for Mexico. I am fine with a midfield featuring Piette, Osorio and Kaye vs. Costa Rica, for example.

But again: Stephan he was our best player vs. CR in the Gold Cup, so you might think they suit him well, and they have some midfield talent, however ageing, you might want to match.

The other thing is what Mexico might come our way with after playing the US. They have Moreno the defender, Lozano and Raúl Jiménez on cards. If they all get cards in a spiritied US match, that puts us in a very good position as their best 2 attackers and a good defender would be out. I would not put it past them to see reds in Cincinnati (the US too). Both teams are going all out there for sure.  If Mexico beat the US, they might decide not to kill themselves in the chill of Edmonton as well. If they lose vs. the US, it will be different and they'll come harder, cold be damned.

Tough questions, since even if we draw Mexico is it a good result. But if we draw Costa Rica most will be saying we underperformed. I say go all out vs. Costa Rica, as Mexico may come with player's missing and with less motivation than most visits.

We'll want 3-4 points from this Edmonton window (if we beat CR but lose to a good Mexico we'd have to accept that, even though it may put us back in 4th spot). 

I will be satisfied even if we come away with 3 points from this one.  I won’t be thrilled and would definitely prefer 4 or 6, but I won’t view the window as a failure if we only get one win.  Thus I think we play our best against CR and hopefully someone like Staq doesn’t get a 2nd yellow.  I know Kaye and Oso have also been playing a lot but Staq is the main one of the 4 that I hope would be available for Mexico.

The other thing to think about is that the game after Mexico is away to Honduras.  So far at home they have lost to the US and Jamaica, and tied Costa Rica.  If ever there was a time to get an away win in Honduras (shades of Jamaica I know) it seems like it is now.  It would also be poetic to out the mail in their coffin in San Pedro Sula.  And after the Honduras game we are hosting the US - another really important game where we will want a result.  

Having a key player like Staq miss the Mexico game due to yellow accumulation might be unfortunate but it would also clear his account for the remaining matches.  And as much as some really want to “have a go” at Mexico in this campaign I wouldn’t prioritize that game over any of the other 3 I mentioned because I think they all offer some pretty crucial points.

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23 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

 

We'll want 3-4 points from this Edmonton window (if we beat CR but lose to a good Mexico we'd have to accept that, even though it may put us back in 4th spot). 

There are no reasons to settle for 3-4 points from the next two games. We want 6.  4 points will be a slight disappointment. We have to start thinking like we're a top team in the region - maybe even the top-est of the top.

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6 minutes ago, Sal333 said:

There are no reasons to settle for 3-4 points from the next two games. We want 6.  4 points will be a slight disappointment. We have to start thinking like we're a top team in the region - maybe even the top-est of the top.

There are 8 games left and we simply aren’t going to grab 24 points.  That is reality.  There will be stumbles and slip ups from everyone - including us.   And to be blunt Mexico could be one of those games.   

Of course we all want 6 points.  And I will be cheering hard on the stands to help make it happen.  But disappointed with 4 points?  Not me.  That will keep us chugging steadily towards Qatar.  

EDIT: 4 more points would put us on 14 total with 6 games left to pick up just 6-8 more points to likely get us across the line.  A couple more wins and we would be pretty much there.  

Edited by dyslexic nam
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