WCQ: Third Round - Window 3 (November 12-16, 2021)

[maplebanana]

3 hours ago, Floortom said:

Not their best squad but with Antonio and Bailey they can be dangerous. Would much rather face the squad we did last window than this one.

Jamaica isn’t out of the competition by any stretch. They have had the toughest schedule of any squad and are only 5 points back of us and 3 points behind Panama. They’ve dug themselves a hole but with 8 matches left there is a ton of time to get back into it. 
 

They're also the only team to have played only 2 home games. I am much more worried about Jamaica than Panama, especially if Antonio/Bailey are back.

[A_Gagne]

4 hours ago, Stryker911 said:

Why is Bailey in italics? Still injured?

because he's a badass

[narduch]

Hoilett not in the line up today for Reading.

[Pottsy3]

2 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

The guy playing in CPL 2 years ago at age 18 was not better than other players around him but now that he plays in an international top flight at age 20 it wouldn't be fair to call him?

I may be missing the sarcasm here, but my intent was to state that he wasn't good enough at 18 (nor was he called at that time) and outside of signing for a Saudi club there have been no signs to suggest he's progressed to the national team level now.

[Unnamed Trialist]

17 minutes ago, Pottsy3 said:

I may be missing the sarcasm here, but my intent was to state that he wasn't good enough at 18 (nor was he called at that time) and outside of signing for a Saudi club there have been no signs to suggest he's progressed to the national team level now.

The Saudi league is better than the CPL, so that is a sign. Unless you watch Saudi league and verify it's not up to par. 

According to the AFC, the Saudi league is the number one ranked league in Asia. So that would be another sign.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AFC_Club_Competitions_Ranking

It is not clear he has made appearances for the first team yet, so this could be to bring him into our fold. He had been called up as youth into Saudi camps.

[CanadaFan123]

2 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

The Saudi league is better than the CPL, so that is a sign. Unless you watch Saudi league and verify it's not up to par. 

According to the AFC, the Saudi league is the number one ranked league in Asia. So that would be another sign.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AFC_Club_Competitions_Ranking

It is not clear he has made appearances for the first team yet, so this could be to bring him into our fold. He had been called up as youth into Saudi camps.

The Saudi league is a good league.

The Saudi league also has strict domestic requirements, which may give you an idea as to why he has a roster spot. The fact he could go from being an obscure CPL player to the Saudi league is telling. 

[Cblake]

Expecting Canada to be announced around the time, I would assume as guys would starting traveling after their weekend matches. 

[EJsens1]

Just looking at scheduling, but David, Davies, Vitoria, Larin, Borjan (Thursday) and Hutchinson are all done Saturday.  Eustaqiuo and Adekugbe play through Sunday.  

[Kusch to the Corner]

10 hours ago, maplebanana said:

They're also the only team to have played only 2 home games. I am much more worried about Jamaica than Panama, especially if Antonio/Bailey are back.

Based on only my own predictions for how the remaining games will play out, I predict we finish on 20 points; Jamaica on 19. 

We're 3rd, they're 4th.

It's going to be really close imo.

[dyslexic nam]

11 minutes ago, Kusch to the Corner said:

Based on only my own predictions for how the remaining games will play out, I predict we finish on 20 points; Jamaica on 19. 

We're 3rd, they're 4th.

It's going to be really close imo.

With two home games, the next couple of weeks will be massive.  4 points would be really solid.  

[Cblake]

7 minutes ago, dyslexic nam said:

With two home games, the next couple of weeks will be massive.  4 points would be really solid.  

No doubt about it, 4 points out of the two November games would huge. It certainly would put the lads in a good place heading into 2022. 

[Sal333]

7 hours ago, Cblake said:

No doubt about it, 4 points out of the two November games would huge. It certainly would put the lads in a good place heading into 2022. 

I don't want to sound like a downer but I would be a little disappointed with 4 points. I believe this team has a couple more levels and they haven't shown them yet. This window is the perfect time to show one of those hidden levels. I say 6 points. Anything less - like 4 points - will be a let down. We have the perfect storm. We have an almost completely healthy team - knock on wood until Saturday - we're playing in Edmonton in weather that will freeze Latino cojones and it will be in front of 50-55K crazy fans.

In this window I am certain this team will show what it is capable of. Watch out Costa RIca and Mexico.

Edited November 3, 2021 by Sal333

[Free kick]

5 hours ago, Sal333 said:

I don't want to sound like a downer but I would be a little disappointed with 4 points. I believe this team has a couple more levels and they haven't shown them yet. This window is the perfect time to show one of those hidden levels. I say 6 points. Anything less - like 4 points - will be a let down. We have the perfect storm. We have an almost completely healthy team - knock on wood until Saturday - we're playing in Edmonton in weather that will freeze Latino cojones and it will be in front of 50-55K crazy fans.

In this window I am certain this team will show what it is capable of. Watch out Costa RIca and Mexico.

It depends.   If you look at our performance in the first six games and take the glass half full perspective, then i see your point.  Personally, I have taken the glass half full perspective after each game which lead me to thinking about accomodation and travel to Qatar.

however,  having gone back to check all the highlights over the last 2-3 days something struck about each of these games.   And it is that in almost every highlight, there was a goal post that our opponents hit at a very key moment in the game.   For example against Honduras, versus the US,  versus Mexico, versus jamaica.  Our campaign would look very differnent if those balls would have gone in the net.  This would be the glass half empty side of our campaign.  Its a fine line.   With that in mind,  getting four out of six points now looks very acceptable. 

Edited November 3, 2021 by Free kick

[dyslexic nam]

I will be more blunt.   Anyone disappointed with 4 points from a window where we play Costa Roca and Mexico is not being realistic.   

I get that we are a better team than we were.  But we aren’t yet at the point where we can realistically expect to beat Mexico just because we are at home and there is some frost on the turf.  Can it happen?  Sure.  And I will be hoping like hell that it does.  But the idea of being disappointed if we beat CR and draw Mexico seems over the top.   We have a long way to go before anything less than a win over Mexico should be viewed as failure.  
 

[Free kick]

I would add that, overall,  Concacaf teams are good.   Yes, you have roughly 20-25 sides that are minnows but after that no one else is a pushover, even for Mexico.   Why did it take a friggin global pandemic to get it right with the Conacacaf WCQ process? Why couldnt they do something like this in the past?  Its been a competitive and very entertaining event.     If you look at all the games played so far in this new eight team group, there have been no blowouts nor have we seen the same degree of mismatches that you see in the Uefa groups or even Conmebol.

Edited November 3, 2021 by Free kick

[theaub]

There's a difference between disappointment and failure.  Four points in this window is very acceptable, but I still fail to see how a draw should be the goal when we outplayed them away. 

[theaub]

1 hour ago, Free kick said:

It depends.   If you look at our performance in the first six games and take the glass half full perspective, then i see your point.  Personally, I have taken the glass half full perspective after each game which lead me to thinking about accomodation and travel to Qatar.

however,  having gone back to check all the highlights over the last 2-3 days something struck about each of these games.   And it is that in almost every highlight, there was a goal post that our opponents hit at a very key moment in the game.   For example against Honduras, versus the US,  versus Mexico, versus jamaica.  Our campaign would look very differnent if those balls would have gone in the net.  This would be the glass half empty side of our campaign.  Its a fine line.   With that in mind,  getting four out of six points now looks very acceptable. 

Sure, and if Davies and Millar don't whiff on absolutely golden A++ chances against Mexico and Jamaica respectively we're sitting on 14 points and first in the group.  It cuts both ways.  

[SpursFlu]

If you consider 3 pts against our main rival for finishing 3 or 4 and 1 pt off a team that basically nobody else can hope to steal a pt. Yah 4pts is amazing. Check the probability ratio if that happens. I would think top 4 would be over 90%, top 3 over 75%

3 pts would be totally acceptable and keep the WC train chugging along

[Unnamed Trialist]

2 hours ago, dyslexic nam said:

I will be more blunt.   Anyone disappointed with 4 points from a window where we play Costa Roca and Mexico is not being realistic.   

I get that we are a better team than we were.  But we aren’t yet at the point where we can realistically expect to beat Mexico just because we are at home and there is some frost on the turf.  Can it happen?  Sure.  And I will be hoping like hell that it does.  But the idea of being disappointed if we beat CR and draw Mexico seems over the top.   We have a long way to go before anything less than a win over Mexico should be viewed as failure.  
 

Exactly. We have not even had a loss yet, which would make us all start biting our nails and wearing burlap.

There are other teams rivalling us who have lost and are still pushing on. Which is what we will have to do as well. 

Unless folks seriously think it'll be clear sailing and docking in Doha if you please.

The only thing that makes me optimistic is that we have room for improvement.

[Treppy2]

5 hours ago, dyslexic nam said:

I will be more blunt.   Anyone disappointed with 4 points from a window where we play Costa Roca and Mexico is not being realistic.   

I get that we are a better team than we were.  But we aren’t yet at the point where we can realistically expect to beat Mexico just because we are at home and there is some frost on the turf.  Can it happen?  Sure.  And I will be hoping like hell that it does.  But the idea of being disappointed if we beat CR and draw Mexico seems over the top.   We have a long way to go before anything less than a win over Mexico should be viewed as failure.  
 

Here's my view on how we get from our current 10 points to 21 points, which almost certainly will put us into 3rd place with an automatic ticket to Qatar:

Window 3 (Home to Costa Rica, Home to Mexico) - 3 points for a total of 13

Window 4 (Away to Honduras, Home to US, Away to El Salvador) - a minimum of 2 points, for a total of at least 15

Window 5 (Away to Costa Rica, Home to Jamaica, Away to Panama) - 6 points, for a total of at least 21

I think Canada can get those results. Sure would be nice to get an away win in Window 4 though, so it doesn't come down to the last match or two. (And as a reminder, Canada has never won an away match in the Hex or Octo.)

[Club Linesman]

4

4

3

 

[Sal333]

2 hours ago, Treppy2 said:

Here's my view on how we get from our current 10 points to 21 points, which almost certainly will put us into 3rd place with an automatic ticket to Qatar:

Window 3 (Home to Costa Rica, Home to Mexico) - 3 points for a total of 13

Window 4 (Away to Honduras, Home to US, Away to El Salvador) - a minimum of 2 points, for a total of at least 15

Window 5 (Away to Costa Rica, Home to Jamaica, Away to Panama) - 6 points, for a total of at least 21

I think Canada can get those results. Sure would be nice to get an away win in Window 4 though, so it doesn't come down to the last match or two. (And as a reminder, Canada has never won an away match in the Hex or Octo.)

I don't know if my blood pressure can survive your scenario.

[canadasoccer20]

3,4,4 imo worse case

[Free kick]

2 hours ago, Club Linesman said:

4

4

3

 

Yes,  in concacaf you dont want to find yourself in a position whereby you are in the final window and you need help (results elsewhere) from other sides in order to help you qualify.  Because those results will never come.  Its best to be in comfortably in a poll position (ie.: top three) and in control of your destiny  before the start of the final window.  Hence 4 pts in the next two windows should do the trick.  

Edited November 4, 2021 by Free kick

[dyslexic nam]

3 hours ago, Treppy2 said:

Here's my view on how we get from our current 10 points to 21 points, which almost certainly will put us into 3rd place with an automatic ticket to Qatar:

Window 3 (Home to Costa Rica, Home to Mexico) - 3 points for a total of 13

Window 4 (Away to Honduras, Home to US, Away to El Salvador) - a minimum of 2 points, for a total of at least 15

Window 5 (Away to Costa Rica, Home to Jamaica, Away to Panama) - 6 points, for a total of at least 21

I think Canada can get those results. Sure would be nice to get an away win in Window 4 though, so it doesn't come down to the last match or two. (And as a reminder, Canada has never won an away match in the Hex or Octo.)

The neat thing about that is just how realistic it is.  

Window 3 - we should beat CR and get 3 points.  Anything from
Mexico is a bonus IMO.

Window 4 - I think we can get a minimum of 4 points out of those three games   A win and a draw seems quite doable.  No single game is an easy win but I think we do one of the three and get at least a draw somewhere else.

Window 5 - I think 6 is possible, but could be a challenge.  We should get 4 points at minimum.  

 

A different way to get to 11 but still very doable IMO.