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WCQ: Third Round - Window 2 (October 7-13, 2021)


Yoginess
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How's this for an idea?  I still feel that David has more to offer, but playing up top in a role he tends not to excel at is simply not working. He does much better with a strike partner like Larin, a big body who can hold up well enough, and allow David to play in behind and find space and link up with the midfielders.  While Tajon or Miller could play up front with David, they are not the right profile for the #9 (and I feel we need Tajon on the wing, with maybe Miller coming in late to spell him off.)

What about playing Cornelius up top, with David slotted in behind?  Cornelius has played as a striker in the past, is great in the air, and is fearless. Yup, he's going to be rusty in that role, but he'll be a target man, draw a fair bit of attention from Panama's CBs, and he'll be a genuine threat in the air for Tajon and Davies' crosses. I doubt Herdman will go for this, but I just wanted to posit the idea. What do you think?

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25 minutes ago, The Beaver 2.0 said:

How's this for an idea?  I still feel that David has more to offer, but playing up top in a role he tends not to excel at is simply not working. He does much better with a strike partner like Larin, a big body who can hold up well enough, and allow David to play in behind and find space and link up with the midfielders.  While Tajon or Miller could play up front with David, they are not the right profile for the #9 (and I feel we need Tajon on the wing, with maybe Miller coming in late to spell him off.)

What about playing Cornelius up top, with David slotted in behind?  Cornelius has played as a striker in the past, is great in the air, and is fearless. Yup, he's going to be rusty in that role, but he'll be a target man, draw a fair bit of attention from Panama's CBs, and he'll be a genuine threat in the air for Tajon and Davies' crosses. I doubt Herdman will go for this, but I just wanted to posit the idea. What do you think?

Maybe for the last 5 mins if we need a goal.  

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The conventional wisdom surrounding WCQ is win your home games, draw away, so I rejigged the table to get another perspective on how we’re doing so far relative to the other teams. Obviously road points and home points ultimately count the same in the real final table, but I still thought it was interesting nonetheless,

Home: W=0, D=-2, L=-3

Away: W=2, D=0, L=-1

pts/home points/away pts

Mexico   0/-2/+2

USA.       -1/-2/+1

Canada.  -2/-2/0

Panama.  -3/-4/1

Costa Rica -5/-5/0

El Salvador. -6/-4/-2

Honduras.  -6/-5/-1

Jamaica -7/-5/-2

 

 

 

Edited by footballfreak
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1 hour ago, footballfreak said:

The conventional wisdom surrounding WCQ is win your home games, draw away, so I rejigged the table to get another perspective on how we’re doing so far relative to the other teams. Obviously road points and home points ultimately count the same in the real final table, but I still thought it was interesting nonetheless,

Home: W=0, D=-2, L=-3

Away: W=2, D=0, L=-1

pts/home points/away pts

Mexico   0/-2/+2

USA.       -1/-2/+1

Canada.  -2/-2/0

Panama.  -3/-4/1

Costa Rica -5/-5/0

El Salvador. -6/-4/-2

Honduras.  -6/-5/-1

Jamaica -7/-5/-2

 

 

 

I love this analysis. But it's likely just because it's making me feel better about not-winning on Sunday. 

Would be good to keep tracking this going forward, especially as more teams have to play @MEX and @USA.

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13 hours ago, The Beaver 2.0 said:

How's this for an idea?  I still feel that David has more to offer, but playing up top in a role he tends not to excel at is simply not working. He does much better with a strike partner like Larin, a big body who can hold up well enough, and allow David to play in behind and find space and link up with the midfielders.  While Tajon or Miller could play up front with David, they are not the right profile for the #9 (and I feel we need Tajon on the wing, with maybe Miller coming in late to spell him off.)

What about playing Cornelius up top, with David slotted in behind?  Cornelius has played as a striker in the past, is great in the air, and is fearless. Yup, he's going to be rusty in that role, but he'll be a target man, draw a fair bit of attention from Panama's CBs, and he'll be a genuine threat in the air for Tajon and Davies' crosses. I doubt Herdman will go for this, but I just wanted to posit the idea. What do you think?

I think our natural false 9 is actually Osorio. 

You can't make up target strikers who don't play the position, and regardless, it would undermine the basic principle of the call-up. 

I'd play Millar on the left, Tajon right, and Osorio as a false 9. No David to start, and maybe no Davies. Or else Davies as a mid behind Millar, who turns in from the left, and Davies gets the width up the wing. 

This has been done before, Spain did something similar in the Euro final vs. Italy in 2012, they played with no striker. Fàbregas played a loose false nine and the rest of the starters were mids (though talented ones, like Silva or Iniesta). They sat the strikers, including Torres and Pedro.

                    Millar        -           Tajon

                                Osorio

Davies    -   Eustaquio   -  Wotherspoon  -   Laryea

    Miller        -        Vitória           -      Johnston

                                Max

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14 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

I think our natural false 9 is actually Osorio. 

You can't make up target strikers who don't play the position, and regardless, it would undermine the basic principle of the call-up. 

I'd play Millar on the left, Tajon right, and Osorio as a false 9. No David to start, and maybe no Davies. Or else Davies as a mid behind Millar, who turns in from the left, and Davies gets the width up the wing. 

This has been done before, Spain did something similar in the Euro final vs. Italy in 2012, they played with no striker. Fàbregas played a loose false nine and the rest of the starters were mids (though talented ones, like Silva or Iniesta). They sat the strikers, including Torres and Pedro.

                    Millar        -           Tajon

                                Osorio

Davies    -   Eustaquio   -  Wotherspoon  -   Laryea

    Miller        -        Vitória           -      Johnston

                                Max

Can you please tell me that Eustaquio is a Regista or Segundo Volante and Wotherspoon is a Mezzala or Carrilero? I love these FM terms even though I have no idea what any of them really mean lol.

https://www.guidetofm.com/tactics/central-midfield-roles/ 

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8 minutes ago, youllneverwalkalone said:

Can you please tell me that Eustaquio is a Regista or Segundo Volante and Wotherspoon is a Mezzala or Carrilero? I love these FM terms even though I have no idea what any of them really mean lol.

https://www.guidetofm.com/tactics/central-midfield-roles/ 

Larin is our WCQ capocannoniere

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9 hours ago, youllneverwalkalone said:

Can you please tell me that Eustaquio is a Regista or Segundo Volante and Wotherspoon is a Mezzala or Carrilero? I love these FM terms even though I have no idea what any of them really mean lol.

https://www.guidetofm.com/tactics/central-midfield-roles/ 

None of those are the false 9, but let me have some fun.

In Spain we use "carilero", as "caril" is a lane--so a guy who goes up and down his lane. Davies at Bayern. Roberto Carlos, Jordi Alba, Trippier. Since Canada plays its attackers wide we clog up the lanes for the outside backs or mids to find those spots. If we'd invert Davies and Millar, right and left, they'd turn in and we'd see the carileros coming down their lane. So I'd say we screw things up for the "carilleros".

Volante I hear a lot, (literally, it's a steering wheel, an axis) but second volante? The volante is the mid who is transitioning and linking into the attack from one side or the other, not the CM. Osorio sort of does this for Canada, sometimes. You could argue we do not really have anyone doing this properly. Hazard at his best was a Volante, or David Silva. So we don't have a pure volante. Or we have Osorio.

Regista I've never heard, but regir is to rule or command, so it would be your CM with creative tasks. So yes, Eustaquio is the man, grazie al Signore.

I think a Mezzala is a mid to one side that connects with the DM and the AM, and links to the wings as well. I suppose Layrea is doing this for us in the 3-5-2. I have never heard this and it sounds like a volante to me. Unless I don't understand volante.

It frankly pisses me off we line up in a way that leaves little option for false 9s, volantes, carilleros and mezzalas. We are so old-fashioned.

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2 hours ago, maplebanana said:

I love this analysis. But it's likely just because it's making me feel better about not-winning on Sunday. 

Would be good to keep tracking this going forward, especially as more teams have to play @MEX and @USA.

Sure thing. I’ll keep it going. The Monte Carlo prediction is more predictive I’m sure, but this is at least simple to throw together. 

Looking ahead:

A win puts us at -2 and Panama at -4.

A draw puts us at -4 and Panama at -3

A loss puts us at -5 and Panama at -1

Bottom line is it tends to align with what the Monte Carlo model says. A win puts us in good shape, a draw is bad but survivable, and a loss puts us in a hole that will be very difficult to climb out of.

 

Edited by footballfreak
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43 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

Volante I hear a lot, (literally, it's a steering wheel, an axis) but second volante? The volante is the mid who is transitioning and linking into the attack from one side or the other, not the CM. Osorio sort of does this for Canada, sometimes. You could argue we do not really have anyone doing this properly. Hazard at his best was a Volante, or David Silva. So we don't have a pure volante. Or we have Osorio.

Regista I've never heard, but regir is to rule or command, so it would be your CM with creative tasks. So yes, Eustaquio is the man, grazie al Signore.

I think a Mezzala is a mid to one side that connects with the DM and the AM, and links to the wings as well. I suppose Layrea is doing this for us in the 3-5-2. I have never heard this and it sounds like a volante to me. Unless I don't understand volante.

Exact, not sure about Spain, but in Italian regista is a deep lying midfielder controlling the play. Traditionally the back line and midfielders systematically try to give him the ball to launch the attack. So yeah, Eustaquio.

mezzala literally means “half wing”. It’s a midfielder with full defensive responsibility, but who converts to wing (or near center forward) when in attack. Similar to your volante description. So you could say Osorio sometimes plays that role.

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6 hours ago, The Beaver 2.0 said:
6 hours ago, The Beaver 2.0 said:

How's this for an idea?  I still feel that David has more to offer, but playing up top in a role he tends not to excel at is simply not working. He does much better with a strike partner like Larin, a big body who can hold up well enough, and allow David to play in behind and find space and link up with the midfielders.  While Tajon or Miller could play up front with David, they are not the right profile for the #9 (and I feel we need Tajon on the wing, with maybe Miller coming in late to spell him off.)

What about playing Cornelius up top, with David slotted in behind?  Cornelius has played as a striker in the past, is great in the air, and is fearless. Yup, he's going to be rusty in that role, but he'll be a target man, draw a fair bit of attention from Panama's CBs, and he'll be a genuine threat in the air for Tajon and Davies' crosses. I doubt Herdman will go for this, but I just wanted to posit the idea. What do you think?

… Floro is that you??

edit: didn’t mean to quote twice lol

Edited by N1ckbr0wn
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23 hours ago, lamptern said:

Are you in a good mood when seeing this?

 

Capture.JPG

2018 Mexico after 5 games: 4 wins
2014 Mexico after 5 games: 1 win
2006 Mexico after 5 games: 4 wins
2002 USA after 5 games: 4 wins
1998 Mexico after 5 games: 3 wins

On the negative side, the 2014 Mexican team that only had 1 win after 5 games (like us) advanced by finishing 4th, and then winning in the intercontinental playoff.

On the positive side, it's also worth noting that all 5 of those teams made it out of the group stage of the World Cup, including the 2002 USA team making it to the quarter finals.

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19 hours ago, Addona said:

Pair Cornelius with Hainault up top …

With 5 minutes left I don't mind pulling a McKenna if you feel you need a goal to win or draw, putting a CB up high for a long ball or headers. Thing is, I think Vitória has the skill set, more than Miller or Henry. But you have to do it without losing your shape, especially if you are tied and want the win. Take off a tired mid and throw some height into the box. 

Miller is not a great header, neither is David. Larin is probably our best attacker in the air, but oddly the way he plays lately that does not show much. 

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23 minutes ago, narduch said:

Match Day 6. All times ET.

image.png.795a8d924783b675509d3ea7f37e9edf.png

None of the other matches have big implications for us IMO, but I would go for:

1. USA win over CR - keeps CR firmly in our rear view mirror

2. Honduras draw vs Jamaica - keeps both squads down at the bottom. If one team has to win I would probably go for Jamaica because that would effectively end Honduras' campagin

3. Mexico win over El Salvador

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