WCQ: Third Round - Window 1 (September 2-8, 2021)

[Canucklehead69]

15 minutes ago, VinceA said:

Wow watching the US dismantle Honduras at the end really makes our opening match against them seem like even more of a missed opportunity.

They also tied ES though and we absolutely torched them

[trc2014]

Am I missing something?  Why do people care about tiebreakers one window in?

[frmr]

I made a formal edit request. Whew.

[frmr]

2 minutes ago, trc2014 said:

Am I missing something?  Why do people care about tiebreakers one window in?

Because that wikipedia page probably gets hundreds of thousands of visits per day, and I'll be damned if it says US is ahead of us for a whole month when they are not. I am going to relish this fact in all of its glory.

Edited September 9, 2021 by frmr

[An Observer]

11 minutes ago, Canucklehead69 said:

They also tied ES though and we absolutely torched them

In spite of US's troubles this window, I put them clearly in second as they had 2 away matches and one home; whereas for us, it was the other way around (as with Panama).

[CanadaFan123]

After this window I put us in 4/5. Not good enough still. Mexico, USA and Panama all clear. Honduras arguably could be ahead as well given their schedule.

Need to be better in the next two windows and get 10+ points. 

Edited September 9, 2021 by CanadaFan123

[scullion44]

I wish we could play Honduras at 20:00 local sometimes…

[Unnamed Trialist]

1 hour ago, An Observer said:

In spite of US's troubles this window, I put them clearly in second as they had 2 away matches and one home; whereas for us, it was the other way around (as with Panama).

Since we are just making this up, our away goals and draw in the US, in the direct tie-breaker, put us ahead.

[Floortom]

Someone on the US soccer subreddit runs an ELO based Monte Carlo simulation of the octagonal after each match. This shows us with a 62% chance of being top 3 and 80% chance of being top 4 after the results of the first window

the interesting thing is that with all the draws, the required points to get #3 has changed quite a bit. This has Panama at #4 with 16.9 points. I think we were all saying 21+ points would be needed for #3 but it might be a bit less than that now.

Regardless of “only” getting 5 points  I think you would have to say that in combination with other results the first window has been a success for us.

 

 

[narduch]

Table after 3 match days:

[Gian-Luca]

After 12 matches, the number of home team victories has increased to 2 - Mexico over Jamaica and Canada over ES. 

[king1010]

STOP THE COUNT

[Metro]

8 hours ago, JohnnyFranchise said:

i meant more how exhausted honduras looked tonight due to a complete lack of depth. it's the same setup in january, we play in honduras, then home to the states, then in el salvador. i would have liked our chances for >6 points if the honduras and ES games were flipped.

It will be interesting to see once all this is done the success rate each nation had in the 3rd game of everyone window and whether they mirror the final standings.

[apbsmith]

8 hours ago, The Beaver 2.0 said:

The narrative coming into this campaign was all about US depth, and I think we saw evidence of that tonight. They won the game without Pulisic on the field. Mchenie, Dest and Reyna were also not out there. This was their third game in seven days, with two of those on the road.  While they did not look great out there, they were cold blooded in transition.

We can learn a lot from how the US played Honduras tonight. 

Very good observation. Nothing to take away from our lads but it was clear El Salvador were gased and simply did not play up to their standard.  Also included minimal squad rotation and a trip from central america to Toronto to Cambridge to Toronto. 

(Had to get the useless 401 travel chirp in). 

[dyslexic nam]

Seeing that table, I want 6 points next window.   We can beat Jamaica in Jamaica and I am glad we are playing them away (hopefully) before they can  find their rhythm.   

[apbsmith]

8 hours ago, VinceA said:

Wow watching the US dismantle Honduras at the end really makes our opening match against them seem like even more of a missed opportunity.

I agree but I honestly think not snipping all 3 from the USA was the bigger missed opportunity, because it was there and so close! 

We caught the USA at the perfect time not playing their best, travel from El Salvador, in house team tension etc. 

I'm not really sure USA will drop many points moving forward, it's really too bad we didn't snatch the W. Still glad we got the 1 but 3 would have been something.

Edited September 9, 2021 by apbsmith

[youllneverwalkalone]

We are tied for the second fewest home points conceded after window 1, ahead of Jamaica and Honduras who only played one match. 

[Canucklehead69]

3 hours ago, Floortom said:

Someone on the US soccer subreddit runs an ELO based Monte Carlo simulation of the octagonal after each match. This shows us with a 62% chance of being top 3 and 80% chance of being top 4 after the results of the first window

the interesting thing is that with all the draws, the required points to get #3 has changed quite a bit. This has Panama at #4 with 16.9 points. I think we were all saying 21+ points would be needed for #3 but it might be a bit less than that now.

Regardless of “only” getting 5 points  I think you would have to say that in combination with other results the first window has been a success for us.

 

 

Panama blowing it late to Mexico was pretty big for us. Even a point is good though. Any team that can beat Mexico anywhere or get a draw in Azteca is basically getting free points that were unexpected previously

[BrennanFan]

I think our best 11 is becoming clearer:

---------------David - Hoilett

Davies - Osorio - Eustaquio - Hutchinson - Laryea

------------Miller - Vitoria - Johnston

--------------------Borjan

 

Hoilett and Laryea have to play, so Larin and Buchanan become the game changers off the bench.  

[dyslexic nam]

2 hours ago, BrennanFan said:

I think our best 11 is becoming clearer:

---------------David - Hoilett

Davies - Osorio - Eustaquio - Hutchinson - Laryea

------------Miller - Vitoria - Johnston

--------------------Borjan

 

Hoilett and Laryea have to play, so Larin and Buchanan become the game changers off the bench.  

I don’t know that I agree.  Mind you, I don’t know that I disagree.  I just don’t know.  

But even the concept of leaving guys like Larin and Buchanan on the bench.  Damn.   What a time to be alive. 

Edited September 9, 2021 by dyslexic nam

[RS]

1 hour ago, apbsmith said:

Very good observation. Nothing to take away from our lads but it was clear El Salvador were gased and simply did not play up to their standard.  Also included minimal squad rotation and a trip from central america to Toronto to Cambridge to Toronto. 

(Had to get the useless 401 travel chirp in). 

As funny as it is to imagine them needlessly travelling to Cambridge and back downtown for training, they actually trained at BMO Field as expected.

 

[CanadaFan123]

18 minutes ago, BrennanFan said:

I think our best 11 is becoming clearer:

---------------David - Hoilett

Davies - Osorio - Eustaquio - Hutchinson - Laryea

------------Miller - Vitoria - Johnston

--------------------Borjan

 

Hoilett and Laryea have to play, so Larin and Buchanan become the game changers off the bench.  

I think we have to try a Cavallini + David/Larin partnership first. I also think Kennedy trumps Miller.

[Canuckistan2019]

1 hour ago, apbsmith said:

Very good observation. Nothing to take away from our lads but it was clear El Salvador were gased and simply did not play up to their standard.  Also included minimal squad rotation and a trip from central america to Toronto to Cambridge to Toronto. 

(Had to get the useless 401 travel chirp in). 

Huh i live in Cambridge such random place for international team to trian

[mrstepp817]

51 minutes ago, Canuckistan2019 said:

Huh i live in Cambridge such random place for international team to trian

I live in Cambridge and yes that is an odd place to train.....wonder if it was cost related for El Salvador

[Corazon]

To clarify, El Salvador was supposed to train at the Portuguese club called Oriental in Cambridge for Monday and Tuesday.  There was doubt when the news broke but several Salvadorian fans showed up to the club on Monday night.  As more doubt creeped in from fans Monday night, there was a facetime call between someone from the ES staff and a member of Oriental club to clarify that there were some Covid issues and vaccination issues and that they had to cancel but I believe they were advised that they would still be paying for the use of the facility anyways.  Tuesday night was severe thunderstorms and downpour so I'm not even sure they could have trained anyways.

Perhaps the ES squad had not taken into account the terrible 401 travel commute.  The club itself is quite isolated on the outskirts of Cambridge and there is a fairly significant population of Salvadorians in Cambridge and Kitchener.