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Canada's Octo Schedule


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On 6/26/2021 at 2:37 PM, Stryker911 said:

Victoria letting in 10% capacity for the Olympic basketball qualifiers. This is an indoor arena with a capacity of 7500.

Good news, so currently: 

10% indoor : BC 

25% outdoor :Ontario 

25% indoor : Quebec

I expect those % continue to go up. 

More importantly, really hope we do get to have the game in Canada!

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How many points do we expect out of our first 3 games?

Let's assume we are playing in Canada (not guarenteed).

We face El Salvador and Honduras at home. Being realistic, I would say we take 4-6 points from that.

We also play the USA away, I would say 0-1 points.

So best case senario, we finish the first window with 7 points, worst case we finish with 4 points. Is that fair?

I just criticised the Americans in the USA thread for being too optimistic, so I don't want to be a hypocrite here. How do you guys see it going down?

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1 minute ago, Obinna said:

How many points do we expect out of our first 3 games?

Let's assume we are playing in Canada (not guarenteed).

We face El Salvador and Honduras at home. Being realistic, I would say we take 4-6 points from that.

We also play the USA away, I would say 0-1 points.

So best case senario, we finish the first window with 7 points, worst case we finish with 4 points. Is that fair?

I just criticised the Americans in the USA thread for being too optimistic, so I don't want to be a hypocrite here. How do you guys see it going down?

I think we need at least 6. Anything less than that and it will be difficult to make the World Cup.

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56 minutes ago, narduch said:

I think we need at least 6. Anything less than that and it will be difficult to make the World Cup.

I agree.  To maintain hope of qualifying, we will need to win at home against the teams we want to (realistically) compete with for the 2 spots likely up for grabs.  Any away draws or wins then really put us in a strong position.  But given how hard away wins (and even draws) are for us against top CONCACAF teams, anything less than 6 points from our first round of 3 games has to be considered a rough start.  

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4 points is reasonably possible, but would be a huge blow to our chances. Obviously anything less than that would be a downright disaster. 6 is also quite possible, and maybe the most likely outcome and would be great! 7 is fantastic (provided the draw is against the USA, it's less good if the draw is against Honduras since they are more likely to be our rival for the final spot and a half). 9 points is possible but a stretch and Gareth Wheeler would be quite right to say at that point that we are on cloud 9 (and you KNOW he will say it, because he is awesome).

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8 minutes ago, Kent said:

4 points is reasonably possible, but would be a huge blow to our chances. Obviously anything less than that would be a downright disaster. 6 is also quite possible, and maybe the most likely outcome and would be great! 7 is fantastic (provided the draw is against the USA, it's less good if the draw is against Honduras since they are more likely to be our rival for the final spot and a half). 9 points is possible but a stretch and Gareth Wheeler would be quite right to say at that point that we are on cloud 9 (and you KNOW he will say it, because he is awesome).

You can read him like a children’s book...

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13 minutes ago, Obinna said:

Yes, zero points would technically be the worst case. Do you really think that is possible, or are you just being pedantic? 

Definitely being pedantic, because there's literally no worse than zero.

I've also been watching Canada since the 90s and I've grown to realize that anything is possible.

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19 minutes ago, RS said:

Definitely being pedantic, because there's literally no worse than zero.

I've also been watching Canada since the 90s and I've grown to realize that anything is possible.

Even for Canada you'd have to think zero points is extremely remote, but you're right anything is possible.

Full points is also extremely remote, but while we are being pedantic can we also flag that as the best case scenario? :)

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Interesting to read where people are at.

For me, the probable range of points we'll finish the first window with is 4-7. Can we finish with less or more? Sure, but the chances are less than probable.

More likely we finish with under 4 points than over 7 though. All that would take is losing to both Honduras and the USA.

Also, someone please confirm, but I am pretty sure we haven't drawn a game yet under Herdman.

0, 3, 6 or 9 points. Those are clearly the only options for us!

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If I was Herdman I would be laser focused on the first 2 games. 6pts, very possible, very doable, should be the expectation.

Get those 2 wins and then play a cagey game against the Americans and try to queak a pt or keep GD at 1

I'm assuming goal difference is a tie breaker

Edited by SpursFlu
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24 minutes ago, SpursFlu said:

If I was Herdman I would be laser focused on the first 2 games. 6pts, very possible, very doable, should be the expectation.

Get those 2 wins and then play a cagey game against the Americans and try to queak a pt or keep GD at 1

I'm assuming goal difference is a tie breaker

The USA game is game 2, not 3.

September 2nd, vs Honduras
September 5th, at USA
September 8th, vs El Salvador

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The last 2 WCQ matches at home vs Honduras, we won at Vancouver and tied at BMO ... totally dominated that game but could not score. With our current squad, I'm optimistic  we can win vs Honduras and ES at home...so 6 points. The USA away  game we have to grind out a result and from some of the Euro round of 16 games, there are lots of examples how to do that vs a superior opponent. Min 6 Max 7

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26 minutes ago, canadasoccer20 said:

100% I remember 2 cycles ago we tied 0-0 vs them and it made the blowout in Honduras a thing. Everyone forgets we didn't win our game vs them in Toronto.

Montreal I think it was, but yeah it is critical we get off to a good start. I don't think a draw is fatal, but a win would really set the tone. We have the talent to get it, just have to continue to be solid defensively, bring our A game and take our chances when they come, because they will come.

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4 hours ago, narduch said:

I think we need at least 6. Anything less than that and it will be difficult to make the World Cup.

If we drop less points at home, and by that I mean NONE against teams not named USA or Mexico, we're going to the World Cup Finals.

Have to have those 6 points out of the gate.  At this point anyway.  A lot could happen elsewhere in those 1st tests which allow more than expected wiggle room going forward.

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33 minutes ago, Obinna said:

Montreal I think it was, but yeah it is critical we get off to a good start. I don't think a draw is fatal, but a win would really set the tone. We have the talent to get it, just have to continue to be solid defensively, bring our A game and take our chances when they come, because they will come.

Montreal was earlier, I think probably for 2010 but I wasn't as rabid a fan then so I'm not sure. For 2014 qualifying we played Honduras in Toronto and tied 0-0. I think McKenna headed one off the post, or maybe just missed.

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