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Could Canada overtake Mexico next cycle?


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1 hour ago, Obinna said:

That reads like an American roster in terms of club strength, but even you guys have not overtaken Mexico yet, despite having players at Barcelona, Juventus, Chelsea, Man City, Dortmund, Lille, Bremen, Wolfsburg, PSV, Roma, Genk, etc.

So this discussion is a little premature if you guys have not even overtaken Mexico yet.

The U.S. and Mexico frequently overtake each other, so it wouldn't be unprecedented if it happened again (which I believe it will soon).

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42 minutes ago, Floortom said:

I mean the difference is that the US has beaten or drawn Mexico numerous times in the last 10 years. I’m not saying they will “overtake” them but it wouldn’t be a shock given their respective results and head to head matches.

 

When was the last time USA finished ahead of Mexico in WCQ?

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I think what’s lost and forgotten here is that one of our youth teams beat them and awhile back one of our youth teams actually beat England...

we also developed Flores for the most part and he was not trained in Mexico ... our 3 academies are actually churning out good young players and the 3 MLS teams are overflowing with young CDN players, VWFC is going to sign Habbibullah, and someone else sooner than later ? what happens as the Can PL finds more talent ? Foothills found Pepple, Ottawa USL found Coupland ? With York who found Wright, and Pacific embracing the play the kids movement and now Toronto, we will see more young players emerge. While they may not be PHI, Dallas or NYRB, look what those 3 have done for the USMNT.

Priso, Saliba, Okello,Baldisimo, Habbibulah, Pellogrino and Pecile are better at the same age than our current midfield core in terms of raw talent and even exp. Only Estaquio can actually claim that he was ahead, I didn’t even mention our wingers, our strikers, our GK’s or our defenders. The prospects of today are TFC’s first gen, what happens when the Giovinco generation arrives ? They too will be better, if you doubt that that’s fine but from 2000-2004 that area has churned out many top young players with 2004 being the best yet it seems. Davies and Ballou’s generations are coming aswell, or call it the Drogba one.. 

If we can get to the U-17 WC on the backs of 3 academies, poor scouting and poor coaching, surely we can do better and produce talent with actual pathways and more pro teams and more minutes for our youth, with the most aggressive (if not one of) requirements for youth minutes in the world !

Edited by Dominic94
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40 minutes ago, RS said:

The U.S. and Mexico frequently overtake each other, so it wouldn't be unprecedented if it happened again (which I believe it will soon).

2021 - 2025 ?

2015 - 2020 

head-to-head 2W 4L 1D (Strong advantage Mexico)

GC: MEX 2015, USA 2017, MEX 2019

2010-2014

head-to-head 2W 1L 3D (Slight advantage USA)

GC: MEX 2011, USA 2013

 

Edited by Obinna
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16 minutes ago, gigi riva said:

actually 2002  in both 2014 and 2010 both countries finished at beginning of the knockouot round

What? Not sure what you’re saying here but the US definitely finished ahead of Mexico in both the 2010 and 2014 WCQs.

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3 hours ago, Obinna said:

2021 - 2025 ?

2015 - 2020 

head-to-head 2W 4L 1D (Strong advantage Mexico)

GC: MEX 2015, USA 2017, MEX 2019

2010-2014

head-to-head 2W 1L 3D (Slight advantage USA)

GC: MEX 2011, USA 2013

 

Using your earlier established criteria of World Cup qualifying to judge, the U.S. has been better than Mexico twice in the last three cycles.

"San Zusi" was less than eight years ago.

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51 minutes ago, RS said:

Using your earlier established criteria of World Cup qualifying to judge, the U.S. has been better than Mexico twice in the last three cycles.

"San Zusi" was less than eight years ago.

Very true. But also in those last 3 cycles Mexico qualified for the World Cup 3 times, while the USA only reached the tournament twice. 

Regardless of how we choose to frame it, you are right when you say both countries have been alternating back and forth in recent years. It seems like now it is turn for the USA to once again rise to the top. They certainly have the squad.

We have to wait and see what happens, but if I had to put money on it I would say Tata Martino will lead Mexico to 1st place in WCQ this cycle, perhaps narrowly. I still have questions about the mentality of the Americans, but not of the Mexicans. In the years the Americans were dominant they found ways to win without playing their opponents off the park. Can this current crop of Americans develop that character? Yes. Are they there yet? No. Will they get there? Maybe.  

That great American generation seemed to have a chip on their shoulder. The American player was underappreciated in the past, but now I feel the pendulum may have swung too far in the other direction. Maybe it is just me, but I believe that X factor (or lack thereof) is real.

Edited by Obinna
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1 hour ago, gigi riva said:

We need more academies to start with ,All CPL teams present and future  should align themselves with as many youth academies in there region and help create new ones too 

I think it’s a matter of time. The CPL will be at 10 teams a year from now, possibly more. By 2023 they will have 14 teams, not far off from the amount of teams that Liga MX has. 
 

league 1 BC is also getting off the ground and the investment pacific has made in their area will pay dividends. Lets not forget the German interest and that Athletico is in Ottawa and will likely end up bringing kids to Spain at a point. (TFC should be scared.) We actually have a pathway now, these kids have 12 pro teams to play for at the first division level. I’m very confident that we will rise quickly. I’ll say it again, a year from now don’t be surprised if Baldisimo and Priso have no only Locked in first team spots but are attracting Euro interest, they will man the Midfield Soon.

it didn’t take long for Calgary to send a kid to Europe... Coupland might be next.

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The emergence of the CPL will ensure that we are producing solid players that will aid in filling in the CMNT roster.  Overtaking Mexico, or for that matter the US, is decades away.

But with the increased player pool what should be attainable in the next cycle is that we firmly establish ourselves as a top 4/5 country in Concacaf and from then on we should expect to be in the Octagon or Hex or whatever they will use going forward.  At that point we should be competitive with the big boys, occasionally grabbing a result, but it will be a long while, if ever, before we dominate the region.

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Canada has been underperforming for a long time relative to its population, wealth level and participation in the sport.

Growth at the club level takes a decade to be felt in the development side.  Canada is really only now starting to reap the effects of having 5 professional setups in the country.  The impact of the CanPL won’t be felt for a number more years.

All that being said- we will not be overtaking the US or Mexico anytime soon. Keep in mind that we’re really the 7th rated CONCACAF team still.

This cycle and the next cycle we *should* become the 3rd or at worst 4th best program in CONCACAF.  Once we establish that then MAYBE we can start to challenge Canada and the US in 2030 or later.  But it’s a long way off.

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20 hours ago, An Observer said:

I dont think we will ever overtake Mexico but I think that we now have the ability that we can put together a very competitive side in Concacaf and if that side gels well together on occassion and Mexico underperforms, its not out of the realm of possibility that we can top them in the Octagon and even top the group.  But I wouldn't bet on it.

Yeah, that's pretty much what I was getting at. I took the spirit of the question not about whether we would overtake Mexico in all respects as a "soccer power", but simply ahead of them in the next WCQ standings. Given that Mexico has finished 4th in recent times, another underperformance from them is not impossible to imagine. The difference would be whether we can properly harness the new emerging talent that we have and (by our own standards) increased depth that we haven't had in about 40 years (if not ever). We should be optimistic for our chances for this next cycle. Our ability to gel will be made more and more difficult if we never actually play any games, and we are still thin at CB which is the other point of pessimism.

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Mexico shoot themselves on the foot, Liga MX is not always ecstatic in selling its young talent abroad. That said, Mexico will likely always have the highest floor in CONCACAF, they'll always be a competitor (we should know by now that a soccer team is more than just the sum of the 11 players on the pitch)

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  • 1 month later...

This looks a little better after the last week. True, Mexico is the class of the Olympic Tournament. But JJ Macias is playing behind Alexis Vega. Vega has one goal in 7 games for the Mexico senior team. And what if Jimenez isn't the same player?

Meanwhile, Canada is starting to look loaded up top.

I'm starting to wonder about Mexico pulling a Couva this time around. 

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