It's Time .... Is Canada Going To Do It?

[Obinna]

2 hours ago, top cheese said:

I think that if they stay healthy then they have probably there best chance. They have a good core of players but if Davies or David or hutch go down there going to have a massive hole to fill. Plus as it showed in the gold cup there backline is horrid. And when things get tough in hondorus or vista rica you need some mentally strong guys there 

This is my biggest concern. When things are flowing and the guys are knocking the ball around we look very dangerous and capable of playing with anybody, but when the chips are down and the going gets tough, like we saw against Haiti, it feels like the Canada of old. The panic is palpable and the belief quickly disappears. I am not convinced we are over that hump, because we have not had enough "character wins" to build up that belief and banish our demons from the past.

[dyslexic nam]

^^^^^ This.  

[cronaldo7]

Rough equity calculation done by a friend of mine. Thoughts?

1. 90% to win first group

2. 65% to win second round

3a. 25% to make Top 3 in the final group

 
3b. 15% to make 4th place and ~40% in the playoffs? Ofc varies given region we will face 

0.9*0.65*0.25 + 0.9*0.65*0.15*0.4 
= 0.14625 + 0.0351 = 0.181

Canada has about a 18.1% chance to make it to Qatar.

[gigi riva]

i cant see why we dont play more games vs carribbean opposition we have some decent North American based players to make it happen. Something to think about in 2021. With COVID  2020 was a wash. I dont blame the CSA  for not scheduling  any games this year with all the uncertainty. But I hope the CSA  has used this year and reviewed on how they do things and to try to improve on it. A guy can hope

[top cheese]

I think herdman said the team needed a minimum 6 starters to play in the 11 who were in top leagues to have a chance to be competitive 

[Dominic94]

On 12/11/2020 at 11:11 PM, Obinna said:

This is my biggest concern. When things are flowing and the guys are knocking the ball around we look very dangerous and capable of playing with anybody, but when the chips are down and the going gets tough, like we saw against Haiti, it feels like the Canada of old. The panic is palpable and the belief quickly disappears. I am not convinced we are over that hump, because we have not had enough "character wins" to build up that belief and banish our demons from the past.

Well the Left and Right back positions will be set regardless.

 

can use Davies-Laryea, Laryea-ZBG, ZBG-Laryes, Davies-AJ, Davies-Taj, too many pairings. And there’s Sam and Juan.

We have good RB depth and 2 of them can play comfortably on the left.

[CanadaFan123]

6 hours ago, top cheese said:

I think herdman said the team needed a minimum 6 starters to play in the 11 who were in top leagues to have a chance to be competitive 

That’s for the actual WC, not qualifying. Only two teams in CONCACAF can consistently boast that. Honduras, Panama and Trinidad have gotten by well below that quota.

[Floortom]

8 hours ago, top cheese said:

I think herdman said the team needed a minimum 6 starters to play in the 11 who were in top leagues to have a chance to be competitive 

As in the top 4-5 leagues ?! Seems overly ambitious 

Edited December 13, 2020 by Floortom

[One American]

8 hours ago, top cheese said:

I think herdman said the team needed a minimum 6 starters to play in the 11 who were in top leagues to have a chance to be competitive 

That's CYA. Other than the USMNT and Mexico, what other CONCACAF team has that?

Edited December 13, 2020 by One American

[Floortom]

10 minutes ago, One American said:

That's CYA. Other than the USMNT and Mexico, what other CONCACAF team has that? 

Mexico can’t either..I think the US can barely claim that though

[Gian-Luca]

9 minutes ago, One American said:

That's CYA. Other than the USMNT and Mexico, what other CONCACAF team has that? 

Agreed. Unless by "competitive" Herdman is was referring to being competitive in the World Cup itself (I haven't seen the original quote so I don't know the full context), there's no reason by Canada can't be competitive in qualifying for the World Cup. There is only one position right now where I worry about our depth in that regard and that is CB. Prior to 2020, there were three positions, but the right back and keeper depth has increased considerably over the course of 2020. Herdman has the deepest Canadian squad to choose from since qualifying for the 1982 World Cup (which was a slightly deeper squad than the one which did qualify for 1986.

[Kadenge]

this layoff has hurt JH (who has not coached since Jan) much more than our players who are at least playing with their respective clubs and are game fit.  I  hope the Jan/21 camp and games vs. Panama materialize. JH has not  coached a game in Central America yet and as in every WCQ cycle, we will need  results in CA. Bringing on an experienced Concacaf assistant coach may help to bridge that gap?

[top cheese]

I think it was in terms of a World Cup 

[gigi riva]

I cant see why we do not play more games vs caribbaen  opposition we have some decent North American based players to make it happen. Something to think about in 2021. With COVID  2020 was a wash. I do not blame the CSA  for not scheduling  any games this year with all the uncertainty. But I hope the CSA  has used this year and reviewed on how they do things and to try to improve on it. A guy can hope

[gigi riva]

One thing this layoff has done it has given us a chance to see new players like Tajon Buchanon and Dayne St Clair  make a name for them selves

[CanadaFan123]

6 minutes ago, gigi riva said:

One thing this layoff has done it has given us a chance to see new players like Tajon Buchanon and Dayne St Clair  make a name for them selves

Respectfully, their ascensions had nothing to do with the national team layoff. They performed at the club level, which we would have witnessed had our national played or not. 

[Shway]

I find it hard to be optimistic about this team just based on our situation. We haven’t played in over a year plus, we haven’t been tested/proven ourselves on CA and Caribbean grounds, and most importantly we don’t know how our coach is going to utilize our most dangerous weapon - which is very key. 

There’s just a lot of uncertainties, and I refuse to start having unreal expectations based on the same ol practices, regardless of how other Concacaf teams are looking. Our program has been using the same old failed tricks. We just have more elite options where we’re literally resting on the laurels of them coming together to be electric from lemons. Which I believe can be done, but I won’t be surprised if we don’t, which will be a direct result of a lack of preparation.

I said this before, 1 and 2 are undisputed... Jamaica will be number 3 in their current state, and they will get even stronger. 4 is up for grabs and it will come down to Honduras, Panama, Canada and Costa Rica. Of those teams, in the past decade in a 11  matches we’ve only got 2 wins - one against Panama in Toronto, and the other against Honduras in Vancouver. 

For starters, we gotta be able to win on the road against the minnows convincingly!

 

Edited December 14, 2020 by Shway
thanks @Kent for the correction.

[Kent]

8 hours ago, Shway said:

4 is up for grabs and it will come down to Honduras, Panama, Canada and Costa Rica. Of those teams, in the past decade in competition matches we’ve only got 1 win against Panama in Toronto.

You forgot about our win against Honduras in Vancouver last qualifying cycle. Your point still stands though.

[johnyb]

On 12/12/2020 at 8:09 AM, cronaldo7 said:

Rough equity calculation done by a friend of mine. Thoughts?

1. 90% to win first group

2. 65% to win second round

3a. 25% to make Top 3 in the final group

 
3b. 15% to make 4th place and ~40% in the playoffs? Ofc varies given region we will face 

0.9*0.65*0.25 + 0.9*0.65*0.15*0.4 
= 0.14625 + 0.0351 = 0.181

Canada has about a 18.1% chance to make it to Qatar.

I'd have 3b at about 25%, otherwise pretty accurate.

[SpursFlu]

I'm looking thru Jamaica's roster and I'm not getting the enthusiasm. Obviously Leon Bailey jumps off the page and you can see a solid lineup but at best I see a push game against Canada 

[Obinna]

45 minutes ago, SpursFlu said:

I'm looking thru Jamaica's roster and I'm not getting the enthusiasm. Obviously Leon Bailey jumps off the page and you can see a solid lineup but at best I see a push game against Canada 

Shamar Nicholson, who I have mentioned before, seems to go unnoticed, but he is one to watch.

He's playing for Charleroi in the Belgian top flight, which probably never jumped off the page for you, but consider that he is just 23 and has scored 8 goals in 25 games for them. Before that he scored a ton of goals in Slovenia and Jamaica, which are not the highest level, but on the other hand he has 7 in 18 for Jamaica.

Nonetheless, to go from Jamaica to Slovenia to Belgium, all before the age of 23, is a pretty impressive trajectory. If I were a Jamaica fan I would be excited about this guy.

And to put it in perspective, Brym is a player we all seem to like, but he has just 6 appearances and 0 goals for Mouscron, who sit second from bottom, while Charleroi sit 5th and last year finished 3rd, with Nicholson playing regularly for them and scoring.

I first saw him play against the USA a few years ago, I think in a friendly, and he was causing them a lot of problems. That was the game that sold me on him. He's 6'4 and a pretty big presence with good feet. 

Edited December 14, 2020 by Obinna

[Kent]

1 hour ago, SpursFlu said:

I'm looking thru Jamaica's roster and I'm not getting the enthusiasm. Obviously Leon Bailey jumps off the page and you can see a solid lineup but at best I see a push game against Canada 

I haven't been analyzing their roster, but for me it's the Gold Cup results that worry me. 2015 and 2017 made it to the final, and 2019 made it to the semi-final. On the flip side, they lost to El Salvador in Nations League qualifying, which sent them to League B. They won their group in League B, but that doesn't say much either way. They also didn't do well in the last World Cup qualifying cycle.

I'd probably put Jamaica in the log-jam with Costa Rica, Panama, Honduras, Curacao, Haiti, Canada, and maaaaaybe El Salvador. All fighting for 3rd and 4th in the region.

[Shway]

2 hours ago, SpursFlu said:

I'm looking thru Jamaica's roster and I'm not getting the enthusiasm. Obviously Leon Bailey jumps off the page and you can see a solid lineup but at best I see a push game against Canada 

Why would you be enthused, if you have no interest in the squad? Also, you can't look at any squads on wikipedia right now and think that's their best squad.  Imagine people doing that with Canada it would be hilariously ignorant.

But because I follow them, in addition to Bailey and the mentioned Nicholson there's also....

FW Kemar Roofe @ Rangers - 6 goals in 9 games
CM Daniel Johnson @ Preston North End -  mainstay in their squad
FW Bobby Reid @ Fulham FC - 4 goals, 1 asst in 11 PL games
CB Michael Hector @ Fulham FC - although he's rash, he would easily be a starter in our team
CM Ravel Morrison @ ADO Den Haag  - He's still got quality, and it showed in their match against Saudi Arabia
FW Corey Burke @ Philadelphia Union - He's a beast, if you watch MLS you should know.

Then there's a bunch of guys who are apparently committed:

CB Cheyenne Dunkley @ Sheffield Wednesday - Solid  big guy, think a younger more mobile Wes Morgan
FW Ivan Toney @ Brentford - 15 goals in 18 appearances.
CM Isaac Hayden @ Newcastle United
W Dever Orgil @ Antalyaspor (Luke Wileman voice the former Whitecap man) - Has been a regular in their team 
W Rolando Aarons @ Newcastle United

Ultimately these guys got a lot of weapons who are playing and ultimately in their prime. 

 

[SpursFlu]

Ok.. sure I always welcome new information. Yes solid team and they might have some new guys coming in just like we might. I guess I just dont consider them a solid favorite over us if at all.

There's a reason you play the games. Lets get there and see what we do. 

I dont blame anyone who takes a wait and see with Canadian soccer lol

[CanadaFan123]

Jamaica has a good team for sure. But I wouldn’t look too much into the hypothetical British nationals eligible for them relying on UB-40 players hasn’t worked out for them since the late 90s. It’s not as simple as just taking some lifelong Brit and having them play in CONCACAF suddenly (as we know, it’s a different world). 
 

I do think that without the additions Jamaica is dangerous nonetheless. They don’t have the depth that we do perhaps in certain positions but they are more well rounded. I’m a big fan of their fullbacks Lawrence and Powell. Obviously they have strikers and wingers plus a good keeper in Blake as well.