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CPL Playing During the Coronavirus/Covid19 Pandemic

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, An Observer said:

If your metric is amount of people that have currently died, you are correct. If your metric is keeping the economy open, you are wrong. Depends on what you are prioritising.

Also, many countries in Europe and elsewhere are under reporting so I don’t think Sweden is really an outlier there. 

We won’t really know for 12 to 18 months whether their strategy is better than the others or not. They may just get their deaths out earlier while keeping their economy going whereas others will collapse their economies but catch up on the death rate when they are forced to open. We just don’t know. 
 

Incorrect, for the reasons explained in my post. It is easy to check underreporting of deaths: you look at the standard death rate for a certain period as averaged over a previous set of years (5), throw in reasonable variation, and then start counting after that. And Sweden is 2nd worst in Europe, just click on the link.

We know now that their strategy was at least not better than others, all that is remaining is to find out how much worse it is. And since they continue to not report stats and extend the conditions of uncertainty, that is worse for the economy. And since they cannot de-escalate any measures as quickly as neighbouring countries like Norway or Finland, those are all factors against any superior economic benefits they think they achieved in comparison with neighbouring nations. Right now, if you want to do a trip to Scandinavia, book for Norway or Finland, not Sweden.

Edited by Unnamed Trialist

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3 hours ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

A lot depends on whether there really is a vaccine just around the corner that will help a large portion of the population avoid ever being infected. That's the emotionally palatable vision to peddle as a politician right now, but if there isn't, the vast majority of the population is highly likely to catch the virus at some point over the next few years no matter what happens on lockdowns and herd immunity is likely to happen eventually that way much the same way it did with the H1N1 flu a century ago.

From what I've read, Sweden by law has its public health policy set by medical experts rather than its politicians, so it's a lot easier for them to do something ruthlessly cold and rational that keeps damage to the economy at a minimum by getting to herd immunity as quickly and as smoothly as possible, because the people making the decisions there will never have to face the voters and justify what they did with five second soundbites. 

As I have argued elsewhere, herd immunity is simply a myth. 

First, even the worst hit regions do not have high seroprevalence, I posted the case of the worst-hit regions of Spain above. If the highest % of antibodies in any region of one of the worst nations is less than 20%, then you are susceptible to getting hit badly in cycles over the next few years. Which means a repeat of the scenario we just experienced, perhaps with some protocols in place that reduce infection and death.

By the time you have gotten to a relatively high % of antibodies, the virus could have mutated enough to require those exposed this year to be exposed again, so extending the cycle.

Second, most vaccines take on average 4 years to develop, which is why they talk about 18 months reasonably, they are imagining doing a major rush job: that takes us to late 2022 at the earliest.

But third, no vaccine has ever been developed for a novel coronavirus, so the promise of a vaccine--which holds out the promise of circumventing the inefficient and spurious notion of herd immunity--is not based on solid medicine. 

No herd immunity, no effective vaccine, at least not in any majority way for any given society for the next few years. 

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Posted (edited)

I just asked a simple question on a football soccer forum about playing soccer during the covid outbreak.

We have many samples of places that continued playing soccer or have started playing soccer. What can we draw from that and what affect has it had on the health and wellbeing of those communities? Its a simple question. Anyone willing to take a stab at it? And remember, there are other ways to die and get sick. Not just the new and exciting one

Edited by SpursFlu

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This issue is becoming highly politicized, which is unfortunate. Herd immunity built up where H1N1 flu is concerned after up to 50 million died from it globally in 1918-19. It tends to come back every 30 years or so in a big pandemic (2009 was the last one and by some estimates led to up to 500,000 deaths globally even if it didn't live up to the  media hype) once there are enough young people around again with no immunity to it for the R0 value to be significantly above 1. Whether that is the trajectory that happens with COVID19 remains to be seen as does whether Sweden's or Canada's approach will ultimately turn out to have been the better one to follow. 

There are no easy answers on this, because modern medicine doesn't always have a magic bullet solution and beyond the issue of virus vaccines could soon have fewer than we have grown used to post-penicillin if the crisis on antibiotic resistance doesn't get fixed. My guess would be that normality on soccer will happen a lot more quickly than many people think because national lockdowns simply won't be sustainable and it won't take long rightly or wrongly for most people to start to tune out x number of COVID19 deaths the same way they tune out x number of deaths from seasonal flu, if it isn't somebody they are close to that is involved.

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Just now, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

This issue is becoming highly politicized, which is unfortunate. Herd immunity built up where H1N1 flu is concerned after up to 50 million died from it globally in 1918-19. It tends to come back every 30 years or so in a big pandemic (2009 was the last one and by some estimates led to up to 500,000 deaths globally even if it didn't live up to the  media hype) once there are enough young people around again with no immunity to it for the R0 value to be significantly above 1. Whether that is the trajectory that happens with COVID19 remains to be seen as does whether Sweden's or Canada's approach will ultimately turn out to have been the better one to follow. 

There are no easy answers on this, because modern medicine doesn't always have a magic bullet solution and beyond the issue of virus vaccines could soon have fewer than we have grown used to post-penicillin if the crisis on antibiotic resistance doesn't get fixed. My guess would be that normality on soccer will happen a lot more quickly than many people think because national lockdowns simply won't be sustainable and it won't take long rightly or wrongly for most people to start to tune out x number of COVID19 deaths the same way they tune out x number of deaths from seasonal flu, if it isn't somebody they are close to that is involved.

Yup.. it's all politics. Your that guy, I'm this guy. Very sad but in the internet age that's our reality 

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1 hour ago, SpursFlu said:

I just asked a simple question on a football soccer forum about playing soccer during the covid outbreak.

We have many samples of places that continued playing soccer or have started playing soccer. What can we draw from that and what affect has it had on the health and wellbeing of those communities? Its a simple question. Anyone willing to take a stab at it? And remember, there are other ways to die and get sick. Not just the new and exciting one

Please define your context of exciting!

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13 hours ago, SpursFlu said:

To keep it focused on football. You can believe whatever you want to believe but at a certain point you need to put that aside and just deal in facts and reality. Sweden has not played pro football but it is my understanding that they have allowed recreational football and youth football the entire time. Everyone made fun of Belarus for continuing to play their league with fans even. It's been 2 months, what has been the result? Nicaragua kept playing with no fans. It's been 2 months, what can we pull from that? Bundesliga has been playing for 2 weeks but training (which is probably worse) for 1 month. What results or what has happened there? Korea? It's not like there isnt a growing sample size here. People need to pause, park their personal perspective and just analyze it for a moment. Imagine if they would have started behind closed doors like on Jan 1? We would likely already be back to fans without any stop of play. It's ok to be wrong, just think of people who were so scared they stopped going to work at care homes. Look at those results it's just sad all around. Here your just wrong about playing soccer. It's no biggey. It's not personal. We're all a Canadian family. Im not keeping score

This is — hands down — the most condescending post I've ever read on this board.

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A simple question?? Why not pull a Robert and ask why we dont just fire the entire CSA?  If you want to talk about a disease and sports you'll have to agree on basic facts about whats going on.  I'm talking actual facts not "people in the know told me",  or when the medical community gives one estimate and you believe the numbers are off by the factor of 100X.   I dont think anyone on here is actively saying there shouldnt be soccer this summer (or ever was), merely they are worried about potential negative effects of large high density gathering and the spread of a very infectious disease.  Or having teams criss crossing the country every weekend.  I hope the leagues that kept going and the leagues firing up are successful and safe, and I hope it works its way over to CPL.  We all want to see it happen. Making it seem like people dont want soccer is the worst kind of straw man argument.  

But again the basic facts cant be agreed on.  Health experts  would like us all to wear masks when close contact is inevitable to slow the spread and we cant even agree on that. Somehow listening to doctors has become an enemy to freedom.  I listen to safety people all the time and take rational steps to avoid all sorts of dangerous old fashioned "ways to get sick and die".  I follow a million rules and safety regulations in order to drive my car.I wear a hard hat and steel toed boots. Hell I even have to take courses on safety before I am allowed to work.  And you know what, nobody suck holes about it.  Everyone goes home at the end of their shift, nobody loses an arm or suffers long term resperatory problems from a nasty pneumonia they caught from some ******* who wasnt following the rules.  We work together so everyone is safe.  I dont see why it wouldnt be the same with soccer here when it fires up.  And I dont see why its political...I dont want you to die because I couldnt follow a few rules when we got back to working.  I dont want Y9 to fly to WPG and possibly cause a outbreak there.  If you want freedom, you also get a little responsibility with it. And if takes awhile to figure out and we miss part of a season, so be it.   

  

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As I see it, if the CPL can do the financial formula to justify playing without public this year, then great, go for it. If you are not playing in front of public, then sure, you may be able to play mini-tournaments in neutral sites, eg, the first few weekends all matches in Winnipeg, four a weekend.

I think that the numbers don't work out for them, but let them decide. They might need to sell more TV rights. In principle, CPL was going to be shown as content for the French channels of Mediapro this year, perhaps there are new revenue streams. Whoever had Olympics or CFL rights might be interested. But get your act together soon, major European leagues are starting up and summer will have decent content, all the way to the end of August.

If they say they can play before 1/5th of a stadium, with fans sitting apart, and that revenue is in any way a help, then great. But as I see it, that leaves them maybe a third of their budget short more or less, averaging for attendance and ticket prices, as well as imagining a shorter season.

Fortunately we do not have any teams in the worst hit areas of the country, except, arguably, York 9 and Forge. Please correct me if I am wrong. But I am not sure that even matters, there has to be a league-wide protocol that is as safe for Wanderers as it is for Forge.

 

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On 5/19/2020 at 9:04 PM, Bison44 said:

I am getting this right...there has been NO work done on the hydro pole situation??  No solution?

 

 

On 5/20/2020 at 7:43 PM, Watchmen said:

My understanding is no.  Clanachan brought this up during his press conference on the state of league a few months ago, stating that if it doesn't eventually change there's the possibility they look to move the team.  

(Sorry, time vortex caught me.)

Nothing done and the talk of moving is probably designed to push the city and BC Hydro to git 'er done. When they announced the CMNT games at Westhills Mayor Stewie (not to be confused with Stewie Starfish) said we needed to write to BC Hydro and/or government types to apply pressure.

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43 minutes ago, ted said:

 

 Mayor Stewie (not to be confused with Stewie Starfish)

Has anyone seen Mayor Stewie and Stewie the Starfish AT THE SAME TIME ?

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6 hours ago, ted said:

 

(Sorry, time vortex caught me.)

Nothing done and the talk of moving is probably designed to push the city and BC Hydro to git 'er done. When they announced the CMNT games at Westhills Mayor Stewie (not to be confused with Stewie Starfish) said we needed to write to BC Hydro and/or government types to apply pressure.

Oh to be clear, you could very definitely see that this was a move designed to keep the hydro poll in the political spot light and to try to keep moving the process along. "if nothing...then maybe....".  I wouldn't actually be concerned about the team relocating over this, just that it was interesting that the process has stalled enough that Clanachan felt the need to bring it up.

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Hard to say if Winnipeg is a realistic.  The Gov isn't exaclty keen to be seen taking a lead on re-opening but things are slowly getting a bit freer around here.  Lots of restrictions will be in place for a long time so I've no idea how things will look in 30-60-90 days.  Especially if things go badly in the US with their re-opening.  That sort of makes it impossible for the CPL brass to plan any sort of event, your hosts not being exactly helpful.

Some positive sides, a bunch of rec sports will be relaunching in June, the track opened on Monday and one ugly fish was caught in Lake of the Woods recently.

 https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/thunder-bay/kenora-fishing-guide-encounters-sturgeon-1.5582714

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The Bunda has given them a blueprint.  Somewhere some accountants are feverishly crunching the numbers, figuring out all the new expenses and the $$$ of playing to empty or nearly empty stadiums.  

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56 minutes ago, Ozzie_the_parrot said:

 

I think Manitoba will go all-in on it. We do have the K-league & Bundesliga blueprint and Manitoba is leading a lot of places in opening up.

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Vancouver shortlisted as a hub city for the NHL return today, an option for CPL as well possibly as BC re-opens more and more with many returning to work this week, schools opening June 1st, retail, restaurants, pubs, open already and Hotels and resorts opening in June.

The province is doing well and never followed the lock down strategy, 11 cases only in the latest 24hr period and no deaths.

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PEI - Empty stadiums - half a season?  I just cant grasp any of this.... 0 ticket revenue - no tv deal - no indication the major networks would even bother to show the hilights even in these covid days. Yet they wanna play 'a season' in front of no people in PEI? I have heard more bizzare plans - but not much more bizzare  lol

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