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CDNFootballer

CPL Playing During the Coronavirus/Covid19 Pandemic

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https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-coronavirus-per-capita-death-rate-among-highest-2020-5

Yikes.

EVERYONE I talk to, and my customers are all across southern Manitoba and NW Ontario, want the US border locked down tighter than your Baba's coin purse.  A good share of these people have lived most of their lives like there is no international border!  And in this part of the continent we've been very fortunate, gotten off easy as it were.  But still, no one wants to push their luck.  Baaaad things are happening out there.  Really bad things. 

Yet on the other side of the coin just yesterday the kids were over and with the good weather we had a mind to grab a bite on a patio somewhere.  Not a chance.  Everywhere we went people were lined up outside in the car parks trying to get in. 

So...methinks in our part of this vast country things will be back to normal quite a bit faster than some other parts BUT everyone is watching what's happening down south very closely.  There is a serious worry that they're rushing things in the U.S. and that's going to end up setting us all back.

   

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Watchmen said:

Which officials were you talking to, since Sweden is basically admitting that their plan of herd immunity didn't work and they've now got the highest deaths per capita in Europe.  That's not me "clutching my pearls", that's just the honest discussion you keep wanting to have on this.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-antibody-study-suggests-sweden-not-reaching-herd-immunity-2020-5

I think they believe we may have already achieved or are very close to a herd immunity in Vancouver. 40% exposure. 

Edited by SpursFlu

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Herd immunity only works if you get immune after exposure.  You would need probably 100% exposure and only a portion of those would probably get enough antibodies for that.  BUT, nobody is even sure about that either.  I havnt heard 100% that you cant get a second round of the virus down the rode.  I thought they were saying that Sweden, with no lock down and months of spreading only has 7% of people test positive for antibodies.  And Herd immunity would need over 50 and closer to 80% of people to be immune.  

I have to say you are awfully cavalier about this Spurs.  Look at whats going on in Brazil now, Mexcio, Russia and India will be climbing up the the charts to give Europe and the USA a run for thier money in the coming weeks.  Its not "whackadoos" worried over this.  

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11 hours ago, SpursFlu said:

I think they believe we may have already achieved or are very close to a herd immunity in Vancouver. 40% exposure. 

Herd immunity isnt 40% exposure, its's 60-80% "immunity".  And is someone really saying there have been 300,000 cases of covid in Vancouver??  i know BC is on the low end of testing in canada but officially the whole province has less than 3000 cases. Is someone "in the know" actually telling you there are 100x more cases out there than have been reported??  

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34 minutes ago, Bison44 said:

Herd immunity isnt 40% exposure, its's 60-80% "immunity".  And is someone really saying there have been 300,000 cases of covid in Vancouver??  i know BC is on the low end of testing in canada but officially the whole province has less than 3000 cases. Is someone "in the know" actually telling you there are 100x more cases out there than have been reported??  

60 or 80 damn.. I better get out to Kits beach or White Pine this weekend with the cooler. We've only got for 4 months left

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26 minutes ago, SpursFlu said:

60 or 80 damn.. I better get out to Kits beach or White Pine this weekend with the cooler. We've only got for 4 months left

Make sure to take your elderly relatives with you since your being so cool and relaxed about this.  

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Bison44 said:

Make sure to take your elderly relatives with you since your being so cool and relaxed about this.  

Cmon buddy I'm not dumb. But my mother did come over to visit her grandchildren last week

Edited by SpursFlu

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15 minutes ago, SpursFlu said:

Cmon buddy I'm not dumb. But my mother did come over to visit her grandchildren last week

Well when you start saying 40% of Vancouver has had covid 19, i dont know what other conclusion to draw.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Bison44 said:

Well when you start saying 40% of Vancouver has had covid 19, i dont know what other conclusion to draw.

That's likely low

But I can say on a happy note. I will be officially playing footie again tomorrow morning. A few people I know have been doing kickarounds for the past few weeks. My buddy told a funny story about last week a guy circling the field eyeing them up. He finally stopped and started walking towards them, they thought oh **** trouble. They looked and the guy reached into his bag and pulled out his boots and said can I join in? Football right? Thought that was a fun story

Edited by SpursFlu

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On 5/22/2020 at 7:35 AM, Bison44 said:

Herd immunity only works if you get immune after exposure.  You would need probably 100% exposure and only a portion of those would probably get enough antibodies for that.  BUT, nobody is even sure about that either.  I havnt heard 100% that you cant get a second round of the virus down the rode.  I thought they were saying that Sweden, with no lock down and months of spreading only has 7% of people test positive for antibodies.  And Herd immunity would need over 50 and closer to 80% of people to be immune.  

I have to say you are awfully cavalier about this Spurs.  Look at whats going on in Brazil now, Mexcio, Russia and India will be climbing up the the charts to give Europe and the USA a run for thier money in the coming weeks.  Its not "whackadoos" worried over this.  

Thanks, that post from @SpursFlu was bogus, as is habitual on this topic. Why insist on this flat earth society way of thinking?

Spain, amongst the worst-hit countries in the world, did a broad study in early May of seroprevalence, by province (provinces are parts of larger regions here), and the area with the highest % was Soria, at 16%. Navarra over 15%. National average is around 5%, similar for men and women.

At 5% we are talking about over 2.5 million Spaniards, so that would suggest about 10X more have been exposed than the official stats suggest have had the virus. 

As the study is from late April-early May, it is likely the % are higher, but possibly not that much: the curve had already dropped significantly by early May. 

In any case, if one of the worst hit countries has a maximum of 16% seroprevalence in a region, which could now be higher (20? 25?), and the average is just over 5% (now could be 6-8?), those touting herd immunity have no credibility.

 

 

El estudio de seroprevalencia eleva a uno de cada diez los ...

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13 hours ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

Thanks, that post from @SpursFlu was bogus, as is habitual on this topic. Why insist on this flat earth society way of thinking?

Spain, amongst the worst-hit countries in the world, did a broad study in early May of seroprevalence, by province (provinces are parts of larger regions here), and the area with the highest % was Soria, at 16%. Navarra over 15%. National average is around 5%, similar for men and women.

At 5% we are talking about over 2.5 million Spaniards, so that would suggest about 10X more have been exposed than the official stats suggest have had the virus. 

As the study is from late April-early May, it is likely the % are higher, but possibly not that much: the curve had already dropped significantly by early May. 

In any case, if one of the worst hit countries has a maximum of 16% seroprevalence in a region, which could now be higher (20? 25?), and the average is just over 5% (now could be 6-8?), those touting herd immunity have no credibility.

 

 

El estudio de seroprevalencia eleva a uno de cada diez los ...

Get ready for SpursFlu to clutch his pearls and make a joke about how he infected a million people rather than admit he was wrong about something.  Then complain that no one will engage with him on this topic seriously.

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Posted (edited)
41 minutes ago, Watchmen said:

Get ready for SpursFlu to clutch his pearls and make a joke about how he infected a million people rather than admit he was wrong about something.  Then complain that no one will engage with him on this topic seriously.

Now we are hearing reports that a certain % of people who have been exposed do not show antibodies, so that even exposure is not a guarantee that your system is able to fight the virus if it were to come along again.

Add to that a simple fact about vaccines. The average development period is 4 years, so those talking about needing 18 months for the possible development of one for this virus were being optimistic, not party poopers.

And one more thing: for all the novel coronavirus variations and strains out there, not a single effective vaccine has been developed. There isn't one for SARS. So we are most likely into a multi-year period of cyclical infection of sectors of the population, which could mean certain societies might have to be making hard choices about returning to early phases of confinement in upcoming flu seasons. And those snubbing the warning then, as now, will find themselves with the sh*tshow we are seeing in countries like Brazil, and to an extent in the UK and USA, who had plenty of time to get ready and chose not to. 

All this is upsetting and depressing, but for football it's a mess, since the only leagues that can afford to play only for tv audiences are top flights with deals signed, the lower tiers and more modest projects, like the CPL, are going to be hurt terribly. 

Edited by Unnamed Trialist

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26 minutes ago, SpursFlu said:

K guys.. good luck with that. Enjoy social media and all its wonders

I'm really not sure what you want at this point.  No response on one thread has you saying "Well I guess I'm right."  A presented counter-argument (a number of which have proven you wrong) has you making a quip or a joke rather than any further counter-argument..  You've failed to lay out any conditions in which you can be proven wrong, failed to engage in the "reasoned argument" you keep wanting, and then moaned about how everyone is too worried about everything and won't engage with you for a serious discussion about it.  You live in a city that clamped down fast, then responded with "why was everyone worried?  It's not that bad" while watching cites else where struggle much more.

Honestly, I hope you, your friends, and your family don't get sick.  But damn, you've been a real ass about a lot of this.

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45 minutes ago, Watchmen said:

I'm really not sure what you want at this point.  No response on one thread has you saying "Well I guess I'm right."  A presented counter-argument (a number of which have proven you wrong) has you making a quip or a joke rather than any further counter-argument..  You've failed to lay out any conditions in which you can be proven wrong, failed to engage in the "reasoned argument" you keep wanting, and then moaned about how everyone is too worried about everything and won't engage with you for a serious discussion about it.  You live in a city that clamped down fast, then responded with "why was everyone worried?  It's not that bad" while watching cites else where struggle much more.

Honestly, I hope you, your friends, and your family don't get sick.  But damn, you've been a real ass about a lot of this.

I want nothing. Played soccer this morning. It was a blast. Between 3 groups that showed there was over 60 people at the field. The largest group ended up leaving for another field. They had coaches and everything. Not sure what they're gearing up for? Beautiful day. I hope you enjoyed your Sunday morning.

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Re Sweden, saw an interview a few days back on BBC where they interviewed Swedish epidemiologist Anders Tegnell -  He talks about how there is immunity according to his discussions with scientists and how there's no documented re-infection of people who have had the coronavirus, only re-occurance since they carry it in their body. They were discussing how Sweden had done well overall not going into a lockdown and just using social distancing, getting fresh air and exercise to stay healthy instead of staying home and the detrimental lockdown effects on the health of people. They had a bit of an uptick in cases last week of April and first week of May but have slowly come back down in daily cases except for a few spikes here and there.

 

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Posted (edited)

To keep it focused on football. You can believe whatever you want to believe but at a certain point you need to put that aside and just deal in facts and reality. Sweden has not played pro football but it is my understanding that they have allowed recreational football and youth football the entire time. Everyone made fun of Belarus for continuing to play their league with fans even. It's been 2 months, what has been the result? Nicaragua kept playing with no fans. It's been 2 months, what can we pull from that? Bundesliga has been playing for 2 weeks but training (which is probably worse) for 1 month. What results or what has happened there? Korea? It's not like there isnt a growing sample size here. People need to pause, park their personal perspective and just analyze it for a moment. Imagine if they would have started behind closed doors like on Jan 1? We would likely already be back to fans without any stop of play. It's ok to be wrong, just think of people who were so scared they stopped going to work at care homes. Look at those results it's just sad all around. Here your just wrong about playing soccer. It's no biggey. It's not personal. We're all a Canadian family. Im not keeping score

Edited by SpursFlu

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19 minutes ago, SpursFlu said:

To keep it focused on football. You can believe whatever you want to believe but at a certain point you need to put that aside and just deal in facts and reality. Sweden has not played pro football but it is my understanding that they have allowed recreational football and youth football the entire time. Everyone made fun of Belarus for continuing to play their league with fans even. It's been 2 months, what has been the result? Nicaragua kept playing with no fans. It's been 2 months, what can we pull from that? Bundesliga has been playing for 2 weeks but training (which is probably worse) for 1 month. What results or what has happened there? Korea? It's not like there isnt a growing sample size here. People need to pause, park their personal perspective and just analyze it for a moment. Imagine if they would have started behind closed doors like on Jan 1? We would likely already be back to fans without any stop of play. It's ok to be wrong, just think of people who were so scared they stopped going to work at care homes. Look at those results it's just sad all around. Here your just wrong about playing soccer. It's no biggey. It's not personal. We're all a Canadian family. Im not keeping score

You're the farthest thing from family I'd want to have you asshat. Are you even listening to yourself? Since you value your personal liberties over the greater good of everyone else and you're obviously immune to the virus why don't you do some good with your superhero status and volunteer at a retirement home? I mean what's the worst that could happen? Well besides you killing off more of our senior citizens. Your utter ignorance is beyond upsetting...it is perturbing. I hope your own extended family stays the **** away from you.

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2 hours ago, SpursFlu said:

... Everyone made fun of Belarus for continuing to play their league with fans even. It's been 2 months, what has been the result? ...

Brisk vodka sales and an ongoing boost to the sauna industry.

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, CDNFootballer said:

Re Sweden, saw an interview a few days back on BBC where they interviewed Swedish epidemiologist Anders Tegnell -  He talks about how there is immunity according to his discussions with scientists and how there's no documented re-infection of people who have had the coronavirus, only re-occurance since they carry it in their body. They were discussing how Sweden had done well overall not going into a lockdown and just using social distancing, getting fresh air and exercise to stay healthy instead of staying home and the detrimental lockdown effects on the health of people. They had a bit of an uptick in cases last week of April and first week of May but have slowly come back down in daily cases except for a few spikes here and there.

 

The Swedes are really spinning it, and this information is simply incorrect. As is that of @SpursFlu again, apart from being wrong in almost all the data. As Belarus is closely tied to Russia, and very close geographically to Moscow, it is likely their stats are identical to Russian stats: they are simply lying about them. Belarus has one of the lowest death rates per cases in the world, how does that figure?

There are only 5 European countries with a worse death rate than Sweden. Back in early April both Finland and Norway were doing way worse, and now their results are much better. Their open system this guy is boasting about, where they said they were treating their citizens like adults, threw a certain sector of their society under the bus (elderly, poor), and the policies are backtracking. Sweden has done badly,  continues to do badly, and there's more: the evidence of signficant unreported deaths in Sweden is alarming.

Look at Sweden's graph of new cases: up and down, up and down. It is not a natural curve corresponding to how any country reporting accurately has seen. It has been a roller coaster since late March. They report the same number of new cases May 20 as April 9, over 700. 

Then look at the current percentage of closed cases, including deaths: it is not even at 25% of the total. In fact, their recovered cases as a % of the total is less than 15%, suggesting dire news is still to come. Recovered as a % of total in Canada is over 50%. In hard hit countries like Italy, it is currently at about 60%. 

If you look at the MOMO, which is excess mortality, they are the second worse country in Europe, after the UK. England has extremely high excess; Sweden, with Scotland, the next worse, with high excess: the number of people who have died over the statistical average for the period who have not been attributed to Covid-19. 

https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

By the way, there are many countries in Europe reporting no excess mortality, because they have adjusted their stats properly and recognize those appearing as excess previously, were in fact Covid-19 deaths (France, Spain, Norway, Finland, Ireland). 

Simply put, Sweden has the worst record of any Scandinavian country, and is a perfect model of why their initial "open" policy, was mistaken and irresponsible. And they are still not out of the woods. 

Edited by Unnamed Trialist

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44 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

 

There are only 5 European countries with a worse death rate than Sweden. Back in early April both Finland and Norway were doing way worse, and now their results are much better. Their open system this guy is boasting about, where they said they were treating their citizens like adults, threw a certain sector of their society under the bus (elderly, poor), and the policies are backtracking. Sweden has done badly,  continues to do badly, and there's more: the evidence of signficant unreported deaths in Sweden is alarming.

If your metric is amount of people that have currently died, you are correct. If your metric is keeping the economy open, you are wrong. Depends on what you are prioritising.

Also, many countries in Europe and elsewhere are under reporting so I don’t think Sweden is really an outlier there. 

We won’t really know for 12 to 18 months whether their strategy is better than the others or not. They may just get their deaths out earlier while keeping their economy going whereas others will collapse their economies but catch up on the death rate when they are forced to open. We just don’t know. 
 

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A lot depends on whether there really is a vaccine just around the corner that will help a large portion of the population avoid ever being infected. That's the emotionally palatable vision to peddle as a politician right now, but if there isn't, the vast majority of the population is highly likely to catch the virus at some point over the next few years no matter what happens on lockdowns and herd immunity is likely to happen eventually that way much the same way it did with the H1N1 flu a century ago.

From what I've read, Sweden by law has its public health policy set by medical experts rather than its politicians, so it's a lot easier for them to do something ruthlessly cold and rational that keeps damage to the economy at a minimum by getting to herd immunity as quickly and as smoothly as possible, because the people making the decisions there will never have to face the voters and justify what they did with five second soundbites. 

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1 hour ago, An Observer said:

If your metric is amount of people that have currently died, you are correct. If your metric is keeping the economy open, you are wrong. Depends on what you are prioritising.


 

Except that Sweden’s economy is in the toilet too.

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/nationalpost.com/news/world/sweden-in-deep-economic-crisis-as-per-capita-deaths-rise-despite-soft-lockdown/amp

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