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Canada vs Iceland - Jan 15th (Camp Poutine Match #3)

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I agree with you guys. The lower route ain't so bad. I have said it many times before, the Hex is a potential trap. 

As a fan I want the prestige of playing in the Hex, but pragmatically speaking I think our chances are relatively the same either route. Perhaps they are even greater in the lower route. I like the way @Lofty put it!

As of today, I think Mexico will cream everyone, USA will finish (a distant) second, and Costa Rica, Honduras, and Jamaica will all battle it out for 3rd. No way we are NOT in that 3rd place conversation (should we make the Hex), but no way we are favourites for 3rd when you consider the way we make mistakes and give away points. We saw it against Haiti, we saw it against the USA, we saw it against Iceland...

The lower route feels safer, oddly enough. If we can't at least win it and get to the concacaf playoff, we don't deserve to play in the WC. 

We will be seeded for the Round Robin and should destroy everyone, a la nations league qualifying. Then we have to get through three 180 minute match ups against teams we are better than on paper.

I would be more nervous if it was single elimanation, but having two legs is forgiving enough. Our quality should see us through even when the mistakes rear their ugly heads.

Should we get to the concacaf playoff, as expected, we are playing a team who will likely not be on a winning streak (like us), not be full of confidence (like us), and most importantly would not have the feeling of what it takes to win a two-legged tie.

If we have to go through a Chile, or Peru, or Ecuador, or Paraguay in the intercontinental, then it is what it is. 

Those teams are very, very difficult, but they are not unbeatable. Mexico is better than all those teams if you ask me.

The only way I think we are honestly screwed is if someone like Argentina or Brazil manages to slip all the way down to 5th. I am not going to worry about that though....

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The Hex still gives us a way better chance of making it to the World Cup IMO. The fact that there’s a chance to get direct qualification trumps any other argument for me. Not that I think we’ll definitely finish top 3, but there is a chance. And even if we finish 4th, we’d play a weaker team than if we won the loser’s bracket. Then to just lose in the intercontinental playoff.

i don’t get the argument that the lower route is better because we won’t finish 3rd anyway, but then say that we have a chance to beat someone like Chile over 2 legs, who would be 2nd best in CONCACAF. I guess if we knew we’d be playing Oceania then I would maybe buy it.

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The lower route is it still going to be difficult. Countries like Curaçao, Haiti , Trinidad and Tobago and especially Panama and even Guatemala are no slouches. Good luck going into any of these countries and playing them away and trying to get even a tie . Factor in the weather, the ref and the crowd and the fact that these countries are no slouches and it’s going to be very tough even going the lower route .

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35 minutes ago, SoccMan said:

The lower route is it still going to be difficult. Countries like Curaçao, Haiti , Trinidad and Tobago and especially Panama and even Guatemala are no slouches. Good luck going into any of these countries and playing them away and trying to get even a tie . Factor in the weather, the ref and the crowd and the fact that these countries are no slouches and it’s going to be very tough even going the lower route .

If we can't win over two legs vs these teams with Davies David etc something is wrong.

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24 minutes ago, Mikmacdo said:

If we can't win over two legs vs these teams with Davies David etc something is wrong.

I don’t think Costa Rica, Jamaica, and Honduras are much better than Haiti, Panama, and Curacao so by that logic, if we didn’t finish top 3 in the Hex (if we made it) something is wrong as well. 

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17 minutes ago, archer21 said:

I don’t think Costa Rica, Jamaica, and Honduras are much better than Haiti, Panama, and Curacao so by that logic, if we didn’t finish top 3 in the Hex (if we made it) something is wrong as well. 

This is a very good point. All of these teams are weaker than in past cycles. The core of those teams that qualified for past world cups have moved on. The difference between those Hex teams (at least talent-wise) and the others is marginal, though qualifying for the world cup is still in the DNA of Honduras, Costa Rica and even Panama. On some level those teams will believe they can do it, even if the players are different. We will believe too, but it's been since 86 for us, so it's different.

While we can theoretically qualify directly though the Hex, I am concerned that we could also finish in 4th, 5th or 6th. Sure, we could get knocked out in the lower tournament, but I think our chances of finishing 4th, 5th, or 6th is greater than not making it through that lower tournament. That is what I keep coming back to.

Maybe I am looking past the non-hex teams, but I am just calling it how I see it.

I don't trust us to get results away to Honduras and Costa Rica and Jamaica with Leon Bailey scares me. I think we can beat all of those teams at home, but I don't know...as much as I want to play in the Hex, I don't feel great about it at the same time.

Edited by Obinna

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32 minutes ago, Obinna said:

This is a very good point. All of these teams are weaker than in past cycles. The core of those teams that qualified for past world cups have moved on. The difference between those Hex teams (at least talent-wise) and the others is marginal, though qualifying for the world cup is still in the DNA of Honduras, Costa Rica and even Panama. On some level those teams will believe they can do it, even if the players are different. We will believe too, but it's been since 86 for us, so it's different.

While we can theoretically qualify directly though the Hex, I am concerned that we could also finish in 4th, 5th or 6th. Sure, we could get knocked out in the lower tournament, but I think our chances of finishing 4th, 5th, or 6th is greater than not making it through that lower tournament. That is what I keep coming back to.

Maybe I am looking past the non-hex teams, but I am just calling it how I see it.

I don't trust us to get results away to Honduras and Costa Rica and Jamaica with Leon Bailey scares me. I think we can beat all of those teams at home, but I don't know...as much as I want to play in the Hex, I don't feel great about it at the same time.

I understand we are all worried that it will be very difficult to finish 3rd in the Hex, but the alternative is the get through 2 of Curacao, Panama, and Haiti in semis/finals, THEN playing someone like Jamaica. THEN intercontinental playoffs. We’re gonna have to get by some really good teams no matter what.

The HEX leaves more room for error IMO because we can lose a couple matches away from home and still get through. Panama finished 3rd in the Hex in 2018 WCQ with 13 points. We could get that by beating 3 teams at home, 1 on the road, and 1 draw. That’s very achievable. 

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These are my quick calculations for for qualification vis a vis the hex and the reperchase route;

HEX

20% chance we are top 3 of 6 and qualify directly

20% chance we finished 4th

50 % chance we beat the reperchase winner; 40% chance we win the intercontinental (that’s difficult to call as we don’t know which conference)

So the HEX route gives us the following: 20% + (20% x 50% x 40%) = 24%
 

REPERCHASE

98% chance we win our group (assuming seeding)

90% chance we win quarter final (assuming seeding)

80% chance we win semi final

70% Chance we win final

50% chance we win 4th place 

40% chance we win intercontinental 

So Reperchase is 9.8% chance of qualifying  

I would take the Hex route hands down

 

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3 hours ago, An Observer said:

These are my quick calculations for for qualification vis a vis the hex and the reperchase route;

HEX

20% chance we are top 3 of 6 and qualify directly

20% chance we finished 4th

50 % chance we beat the reperchase winner; 40% chance we win the intercontinental (that’s difficult to call as we don’t know which conference)

So the HEX route gives us the following: 20% + (20% x 50% x 40%) = 24%
 

REPERCHASE

98% chance we win our group (assuming seeding)

90% chance we win quarter final (assuming seeding)

80% chance we win semi final

70% Chance we win final

50% chance we win 4th place 

40% chance we win intercontinental 

So Reperchase is 9.8% chance of qualifying  

I would take the Hex route hands down

 

Seriously? What kind of person picks random numbers out of their ass, then tries to pass it off as some kind of statistical analysis? Maybe you can get yourself a gig with the local chapter of the Flat Earth Society.

I've been on this board for about 15 years, and your post might be the stupidest thing I've read here.

 

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11 minutes ago, SthMelbRed said:

Seriously? What kind of person picks random numbers out of their ass, then tries to pass it off as some kind of statistical analysis? Maybe you can get yourself a gig with the local chapter of the Flat Earth Society.

I've been on this board for about 15 years, and your post might be the stupidest thing I've read here.

 

Glad I impressed you

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4 hours ago, An Observer said:

These are my quick calculations for for qualification vis a vis the hex and the reperchase route;

HEX

20% chance we are top 3 of 6 and qualify directly

20% chance we finished 4th

50 % chance we beat the reperchase winner; 40% chance we win the intercontinental (that’s difficult to call as we don’t know which conference)

So the HEX route gives us the following: 20% + (20% x 50% x 40%) = 24%
 

REPERCHASE

98% chance we win our group (assuming seeding)

90% chance we win quarter final (assuming seeding)

80% chance we win semi final

70% Chance we win final

50% chance we win 4th place 

40% chance we win intercontinental 

So Reperchase is 9.8% chance of qualifying  

I would take the Hex route hands down

 

Yes.  And there are also the intangible factors.  It will be easier to stir up interest and keep squads motivated by playing in the hex.  Thats due to the type of opponents, the regional rivalries factor, the familiarity of the opposing players and the geo-political..etc.  There is greater pride in wearing the jersey when the setting feels like the matches you are playing feel important to you and your countrymen.

WCQ in concacaf can feel very different depending on the opponents. A hex opponent can offer up a packed stadium in professional venue whereas the repechage route conjures up images of dusty fields, empty stadiums and backwater settings.  Thats not going to sell well in canada because it will look and feel like your in the second division.  The psyche of playing in that kind of setting can, in itself, adversely affect results in the short and long term.

Edited by Free kick

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6 hours ago, An Observer said:

These are my quick calculations for for qualification vis a vis the hex and the reperchase route;

HEX

20% chance we are top 3 of 6 and qualify directly

20% chance we finished 4th

50 % chance we beat the reperchase winner; 40% chance we win the intercontinental (that’s difficult to call as we don’t know which conference)

So the HEX route gives us the following: 20% + (20% x 50% x 40%) = 24%
 

REPERCHASE

98% chance we win our group (assuming seeding)

90% chance we win quarter final (assuming seeding)

80% chance we win semi final

70% Chance we win final

50% chance we win 4th place 

40% chance we win intercontinental 

So Reperchase is 9.8% chance of qualifying  

I would take the Hex route hands down

 

This is basically how I feel about it as well. Sure, your numbers may or may not be accurate but even if they’re off by a little bit, it wouldn’t make up for the difference from 24% to 10%.
 

I don’t think your numbers are that far off either, if anything you were generous to the long route. Assume spots 1&2 are taken (maybe not a safe assumption with USA struggling), we have about 25% chance of finishing 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th. Reduce it to 20% seems fair if you think we aren’t quite as good as the other 4 teams (on paper we are but we haven’t proved it). 
 

Our chances surely aren’t 80% in semis and 70% in finals of losers bracket. That would be presumably against Haiti and Panama or Curaçao, both good teams. 
 

My point isn’t to rip apart your calculations by the way. I’m just pointing out to people who criticize your way of thinking that if anything, the difference between the odds through the Hex and the odds through the losers bracket is even larger.

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The odds are not great for us either way.  We are Canada not Brazil.  However, since 86 we have never had this much talent compared to the other Concacaf nations. By 2026 our team will have been blooded by either the Hex or The Hunger Games of qualifying. Hopefully we pull off 2022 because that would put us in great position to learn from the experience and shock the world at our Cup.  The beauty of it for us is we have guaranteed games coming for the next 6 years leading up to the World Cup.  The days of playing a few friendlies in a calendar year are over.  Our team will mature and we are capable of qualifying through either route.  Maybe unlikely either way but the team will build and we have 2 all World players to work with for the first time ever?  Add in guys playing in Europe’s first divisions and MLS and we will be arguably in the mix for 2/3 in Concacaf.  It’s gonna be an amazing ride! (If screaming  at the tv for the Iceland game is any indication of what is in store!)

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Forgive the ignorance here but has there been any update on 2026 in terms of qualification. 

Last I heard all 3 hosts would be in but then a mate told me he read it was only going to be 2. Didnt see anything announced. If so it would likely be the 2 highest ranked teams. Cant believe they would break from a host not being involved though.

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20 hours ago, Obinna said:

This is a very good point. All of these teams are weaker than in past cycles. The core of those teams that qualified for past world cups have moved on. The difference between those Hex teams (at least talent-wise) and the others is marginal, though qualifying for the world cup is still in the DNA of Honduras, Costa Rica and even Panama. On some level those teams will believe they can do it, even if the players are different. We will believe too, but it's been since 86 for us, so it's different.

While we can theoretically qualify directly though the Hex, I am concerned that we could also finish in 4th, 5th or 6th. Sure, we could get knocked out in the lower tournament, but I think our chances of finishing 4th, 5th, or 6th is greater than not making it through that lower tournament. That is what I keep coming back to.

Maybe I am looking past the non-hex teams, but I am just calling it how I see it.

I don't trust us to get results away to Honduras and Costa Rica and Jamaica with Leon Bailey scares me. I think we can beat all of those teams at home, but I don't know...as much as I want to play in the Hex, I don't feel great about it at the same time.

Agree with most of this but finishing 4th in the Hex would actually be better than winning the lower tournament. We would be playing at best El Salvador, Haiti or Panama instead of Honduras, Jamaica or Costa Rica. Either way no easy task but certainly not worse than winning the lower route. 

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Worst case is making the hex then blowing it finishing 5th! 

The lower route is the most arduous for sure but not impossible. There is risk either way, it's just a long hard route through the larger tournament. All the games are do or die anyway.

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21 hours ago, archer21 said:

I don’t think Costa Rica, Jamaica, and Honduras are much better than Haiti, Panama, and Curacao so by that logic, if we didn’t finish top 3 in the Hex (if we made it) something is wrong as well. 

Perhaps CR, Jamaica and Honduras aren't *much* better than Haiti, Panama and Curacao, but they're a lot more experienced at high level soocer and tournaments, this makes them much harder to beat.

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15 hours ago, An Observer said:

These are my quick calculations for for qualification vis a vis the hex and the reperchase route;

HEX

20% chance we are top 3 of 6 and qualify directly

20% chance we finished 4th

50 % chance we beat the reperchase winner; 40% chance we win the intercontinental (that’s difficult to call as we don’t know which conference)

So the HEX route gives us the following: 20% + (20% x 50% x 40%) = 24%
 

REPERCHASE

98% chance we win our group (assuming seeding)

90% chance we win quarter final (assuming seeding)

80% chance we win semi final

70% Chance we win final

50% chance we win 4th place 

40% chance we win intercontinental 

So Reperchase is 9.8% chance of qualifying  

I would take the Hex route hands down

 

I mean even with the math you’ve done with probably inaccurate numbers the lower route looks more appeasing to me. If we had those odds in winning in our games on the bottom route I’d take that over the hellhole of the hex. And besides I think our actual chance of qualifying automatically from the hex is closer to 5% with about a 20% chance of coming 4th.

Edited by SkuseisLoose

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1 hour ago, SkuseisLoose said:

I mean even with the math you’ve done with probably inaccurate numbers the lower route looks more appeasing to me. If we had those odds in winning in our games on the bottom route I’d take that over the hellhole of the hex. And besides I think our actual chance of qualifying automatically from the hex is closer to 5% with about a 20% chance of coming 4th.

If our chances of coming 3rd are 5% then our chances of beating the 4th place team after winning the losers bracket would be ridiculously low as well. There’s no way those teams are that much better than us.

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11 hours ago, archer21 said:

This is basically how I feel about it as well. Sure, your numbers may or may not be accurate but even if they’re off by a little bit, it wouldn’t make up for the difference from 24% to 10%.
 

I don’t think your numbers are that far off either, if anything you were generous to the long route. Assume spots 1&2 are taken (maybe not a safe assumption with USA struggling), we have about 25% chance of finishing 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th. Reduce it to 20% seems fair if you think we aren’t quite as good as the other 4 teams (on paper we are but we haven’t proved it). 
 

Our chances surely aren’t 80% in semis and 70% in finals of losers bracket. That would be presumably against Haiti and Panama or Curaçao, both good teams. 
 

My point isn’t to rip apart your calculations by the way. I’m just pointing out to people who criticize your way of thinking that if anything, the difference between the odds through the Hex and the odds through the losers bracket is even larger.

I have no issue with people quibbling with the numbers I gave.   I was fairly conservative with the Hex and liberal through the Reperchase and still you find that we have a far better odds being in the Hex.  That’s the point. 

For those that say we have a 5% chance of being a top 3 side in the Hex, than our chances of coming out of the Reperchase would be even ridiculously lower. At the end of the day, going the Hex route I think conservatively doubles our chances of qualifying. 

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On 1/16/2020 at 4:40 PM, SpecialK said:

You had Chapman, Borges and  Tiebert there , those players are not green. 

Chapman has 1 CMNT goal, and Teibert has 1 as well... the same as Nelson. And before you shout “but Nelson’s goal was against Barbados, Chapman scored on Bermuda and Teibert on Dominica.

Borges has 0 of course.

As for Hamilton and Edwards who you mentioned after finding out who wasn’t available for the game, they both have 0 goals for the CMNT.

We all know that Nelson is young, and he doesn’t seem to be Alphonso Davies, but he isn’t so bad.

As for defenders, you were talking about James who played a big role in a goal against in the first game against Barbados, and Cornelius who played a massive role in a goal against in the second Barbados game. I missed a decent chunk of the first half against Iceland, but Didic seemed absolutely fine from what I saw. And I like these players you are asking for!

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I think too many people think of Haiti as “that team we crapped the bed against in the Gold Cup”, and not “that team that won Costa Rica’s group in the Gold Cup and then took Mexico to extra time (only to be beaten on some kind of BS call if I remember correctly) and then got two more draws against Costa Rica in the Nations League”.

Those same people probably think of Curaçao as “some Caribbean minnow” instead of “that team that finished ahead of 2 would be future hex teams (Honduras and El Salvador) in the Gold Cup group stage then finished only 1 point behind Costa Rica in the Nations League group stage, despite getting a draw in Costa Rica”.

Hex is very hard, but I think the lower route is very, very hard.

And yeah I think the math was a good illustration. It feels like a lot of people think that if you have a 90% chance in round 1, 90% in round 2, 90% in round 3, 90% in round 4, and 90% in round 5, that you have a 90% chance. But you don’t. You have a 59% chance. And of course, we don’t have a 90% chance at each round in the lower route.

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4 hours ago, archer21 said:

If our chances of coming 3rd are 5% then our chances of beating the 4th place team after winning the losers bracket would be ridiculously low as well. There’s no way those teams are that much better than us.

I’m not saying that we aren’t in the top 4 in Concacaf on paper. My opinion on 5% is based on how **** we are away in Concacaf compared to other nations. We struggled against St. Kitts and Cuba away ffs. But I think in a two legged serried we could possibly do it. I just don’t see us getting many points away in the hex and then we’d be relying on being great at home.

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22 hours ago, An Observer said:

These are my quick calculations for for qualification vis a vis the hex and the reperchase route;

HEX

20% chance we are top 3 of 6 and qualify directly

20% chance we finished 4th

50 % chance we beat the reperchase winner; 40% chance we win the intercontinental (that’s difficult to call as we don’t know which conference)

So the HEX route gives us the following: 20% + (20% x 50% x 40%) = 24%
 

REPERCHASE

98% chance we win our group (assuming seeding)

90% chance we win quarter final (assuming seeding)

80% chance we win semi final

70% Chance we win final

50% chance we win 4th place 

40% chance we win intercontinental 

So Reperchase is 9.8% chance of qualifying  

I would take the Hex route hands down

 

20% chance we finish top 3 in the hexagonal?! That implies that if they played it 5 times, we would finish top 3 in one iteration! I haven't seen that kind of optimism since Scotland's last qualification attempt!

I'd say if we played it 20 times Canada would finish top 3 once and even that is generous. That would make the odds 5%.

Regardless, it is pretty clear that any advantage the hexagonal path may have is predicated on the odds of Canada qualifying automatically by finishing top 3. And you need to be wearing quite a few pairs of Canada coloured glasses to see that actually happening, particularly given Canada's sterling record playing away in Central America.

Otherwise, it comes down to this:

2nd place in a 4 team group also containing Costa Rica, Hondurass, and Jamaica; where Canada are the lowest ranked team.

vs.

1st place in a much larger group where most teams have zero chance and Canada are the highest ranked team.

Then, in either case, there are 2 play-off ties to win.

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54 minutes ago, Lofty said:

20% chance we finish top 3 in the hexagonal?! That implies that if they played it 5 times, we would finish top 3 in one iteration! I haven't seen that kind of optimism since Scotland's last qualification attempt!

I'd say if we played it 20 times Canada would finish top 3 once and even that is generous. That would make the odds 5%.

Regardless, it is pretty clear that any advantage the hexagonal path may have is predicated on the odds of Canada qualifying automatically by finishing top 3. And you need to be wearing quite a few pairs of Canada coloured glasses to see that actually happening, particularly given Canada's sterling record playing away in Central America.

Otherwise, it comes down to this:

2nd place in a 4 team group also containing Costa Rica, Hondurass, and Jamaica; where Canada are the lowest ranked team.

vs.

1st place in a much larger group where most teams have zero chance and Canada are the highest ranked team.

Then, in either case, there are 2 play-off ties to win.

You dont think wed finish ahead of honduras jamaica or costa rica one out of every 5 times? 
 

id place money on that. 

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