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Blackdude

What do you think of the CONCACAF WCQ for 2022?

What do you think of the CONCACAF WCQ for 2022?  

83 members have voted

  1. 1. What do you think of the CONCACAF WCQ for 2022?

    • It's bad
      66
    • It's good
      3
    • Somewhere in the middle
      14


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14 minutes ago, apbsmith said:

Was that just your thinking or did you read that somewhere? 

Good for you if you thought about it, could def work and make alot of sense.

I hope Fifa has thought about it.

A mini tourney would be really cool & "the last 2 world Cup qualifying spots" as international/intercontinental spots would pretty much have the entire world's eyes on it and watching it.  Would be huge for Fifa, interest and $ wise.

Other option you mentioned good also, but def massive travel for 6 more games.

 

Yes and no.  The fact Infantino wants a neutral site playoff for future tournaments just indicates to me he would be open to it for this one as well.  Politically, it would be a smart move.  Whichever team draws CONMEBOL will be whining in his ear about fairness but a 4 team group lets the teams sort it out themselves. 

The only issue would be ensuring the "neutral" venue is actually neutral.  I'm picturing Mexico finishing 4th in the hex and then playing a "neutral" site playoff in Houston and the Rose Bowl.

Edited by CanadianSoccerFan

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On 7/12/2019 at 9:45 PM, Blizzard said:

Ya but in the last cycle, Mexico got New Zealand!

 

Unless missed something (which is entirely possible) i thought in concacaf it was 3 1/4 spots that they allocated.   And, that hence this intercontinental playoff was supposed to involve one side from each of four regions

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2 minutes ago, Free kick said:

Unless missed something (which is entirely possible) i thought in concacaf it was 3 1/4 spots that they allocated.   And, that hence this intercontinental playoff was supposed to involve one side from each of four regions

No it's 3.5

3.25 from the HEX

.25 for the teams 7-35

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1 minute ago, Blackdude said:

No it's 3.5

3.25 from the HEX

.25 for the teams 7-35

Ok.  Thanks.  But then my assumption stands when indicated that the best that those 7-35 teams can hope four is a quarter spot.   Which means teams from four regions battling for one spot.

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2 minutes ago, Free kick said:

Ok.  Thanks.  But then my assumption stands when indicated that the best that those 7-35 teams can hope four is a quarter spot.   Which means teams from four regions battling for one spot.

There are two World Cup places available and four confederations in the play off for those two places. Hence 0.5 places per confederation (win one play off and you are in).

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15 hours ago, Lofty said:

There are two World Cup places available and four confederations in the play off for those two places. Hence 0.5 places per confederation (win one play off and you are in).

 It can be argued that the 0.5 spot is split evenly between two pools of candidates in Concacaf (1-6) and (7 to 35) resulting in .25 spots each.

So Concacaf's entrants are split as follows:

(1-6) get 3.25 spots

(7-35) get .25 spots

Total= 3.5 spots

EDIT: please ignore, this has already been posted. tough morning for me :(

 

Edited by king1010

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On 7/14/2019 at 10:29 PM, Macksam said:

If we are top 6 by 2020 June, we get into the hex. If not, we go into a round robin and playoffs for a chance to play the fourth placed team in the hex before facing another confederation's opponent? Flawed but not too bad IMO.

This is my opinion as well.

We really need to do all we can to get into the hex, but failing that, we are facing a group stage we should win, then we have 4 two-legged ties, which leaves some margin for error. It's better than single elimanation, like the GC knockouts.

At the end of the day, we should be able to beat everybody until the last 3 ties, where we may face a T&T, a Panama, a Haiti, or possibly a Jamaica. All challenging but nothing insurmountable and over two-legs the cream often rises to the top.

I am not too fussed about all that work just to win a 0.25 spot. In the old hex, we realistically would be pegged to finish 4th at best. An intercontinental play-off was likely always in the cards.

If we make it through the lower seed process, one thing is for sure, we will have vast experience with two-legged ties at that point.

Could be an advantage, actually, not only for the intercontinental, but also matching up against hex 4th. Whoever comes out of the lower tournament is arguably better prepared.

I want to get into the hex too, but perhaps we should be careful what we wish for....

Edited by Obinna

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34 minutes ago, king1010 said:

 It can be argued that the 0.5 spot is split evenly between two pools of candidates in Concacaf (1-6) and (7 to 35) resulting in .25 spots each.

So Concacaf's entrants are split as follows:

(1-6) get 3.25 spots

(7-35) get .25 spots

Total= 3.5 spots

EDIT: please ignore, this has already been posted. tough morning for me :(

Agreed. But teams from four regions are still battling for TWO places, not one, which is the comment to which I was responding.

Teams from TWO regions (not four) are battling for the half place awarded to CONCACAF.

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More fun with math.

Hypothetically speaking, if we are in the 7-35 tournament, and win our group, and let's say we have a 90% chance of winning the first home/away matchup, and 90% chance of winning the next one, 90% for the next one, and 90% for the matchup with the 4th place hex team, that works out to only a 66% chance to run the gauntlet successfully.

Replace 90% with 80% (which is still very high for some matchups, in particular the hex match up) our chances of running the gauntlet is down to 41%.

This isn't an argument that the hex would be easier, but just that the road is going to be hard, anyway you slice it.

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^ The trouble is, other teams will be doing the same calculation. Using the current FIFA rankings, Jamaica, Hondurass, and El Salvador flesh out the top 6. That leaves Canada, Panama, Haiti, and T&T in the path of 29. If they all calculate their chances the same way, there is at least a 164% chance that one team will advance! Which is why I think even 40% is a bit too high for Canada.

Compare with the hexagonal. We could realistically, albeit a little pessimistically, say it is really a battle for 4th, as we are extremely unlikely to come 3rd (or higher!) in a full round robin. Then what are our chances? If those bottom three teams are roughly equal, 33.3%. If we are the 6th best team then the other two have a better chance, so maybe 20-25%. (Overall chances increase when you add in the small probability that we finish top three.)

When all things are considered, our chances of qualifying seem similar to me either way (although slightly better in the hexagonal because of the possibility of finishing top three).

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13 minutes ago, Lofty said:

^ The trouble is, other teams will be doing the same calculation. Using the current FIFA rankings, Jamaica, Hondurass, and El Salvador flesh out the top 6. That leaves Canada, Panama, Haiti, and T&T in the path of 29. If they all calculate their chances the same way, there is at least a 164% chance that one team will advance! Which is why I think even 40% is a bit too high for Canada.

Compare with the hexagonal. We could realistically, albeit a little pessimistically, say it is really a battle for 4th, as we are extremely unlikely to come 3rd (or higher!) in a full round robin. Then what are our chances? If those bottom three teams are roughly equal, 33.3%. If we are the 6th best team then the other two have a better chance, so maybe 20-25%. (Overall chances increase when you add in the small probability that we finish top three.)

When all things are considered, our chances of qualifying seem similar to me either way (although slightly better in the hexagonal because of the possibility of finishing top three).

The one thing I would add that most aren't discussing or using in their calculations is the chance that we wouldn't have qualified for the Hex. We haven't in over 20 years, and while I was optimistic we would have made it this time, you have to factor that in the calculations. Based on Round 3 of the 2018 Qualifying, our group was Mex, Hon, Can, ElS. What are our odds of advancing to the Hex if we were dealt a similar group? 50% at best probably somewhere in the 30-40 range. Any calculation needs to start with this. I don't like the new format but based on this, I think our chances are slightly better with the new system.

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8 minutes ago, johnyb said:

The one thing I would add that most aren't discussing or using in their calculations is the chance that we wouldn't have qualified for the Hex. We haven't in over 20 years, and while I was optimistic we would have made it this time, you have to factor that in the calculations. Based on Round 3 of the 2018 Qualifying, our group was Mex, Hon, Can, ElS. What are our odds of advancing to the Hex if we were dealt a similar group? 50% at best probably somewhere in the 30-40 range. Any calculation needs to start with this. I don't like the new format but based on this, I think our chances are slightly better with the new system.

Excellent point. If you are comparing the old system to the new one, that definitely needs to be included in the calculation.

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46 minutes ago, johnyb said:

The one thing I would add that most aren't discussing or using in their calculations is the chance that we wouldn't have qualified for the Hex. We haven't in over 20 years, and while I was optimistic we would have made it this time, you have to factor that in the calculations. Based on Round 3 of the 2018 Qualifying, our group was Mex, Hon, Can, ElS. What are our odds of advancing to the Hex if we were dealt a similar group? 50% at best probably somewhere in the 30-40 range. Any calculation needs to start with this. I don't like the new format but based on this, I think our chances are slightly better with the new system.

This. 

I'll also add that your point highlights the futility of such calculations to begin with. If we must factor in our past failures over the past 20 years (and I think we should), it's all a little ridiculous, isn't it?

Fun as it may be, I wouldn't put much stock in any of these attempts to calculate our odds (though I do appreciate the efforts of those who did attempt these calculations).

Either way, FIFA rankings aside, this is a good move for concacaf. Keeps all countries engaged and it's a unique and fresh approach.

Edited by Obinna

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2 hours ago, johnyb said:

The one thing I would add that most aren't discussing or using in their calculations is the chance that we wouldn't have qualified for the Hex. We haven't in over 20 years, and while I was optimistic we would have made it this time, you have to factor that in the calculations. Based on Round 3 of the 2018 Qualifying, our group was Mex, Hon, Can, ElS. What are our odds of advancing to the Hex if we were dealt a similar group? 50% at best probably somewhere in the 30-40 range. Any calculation needs to start with this. I don't like the new format but based on this, I think our chances are slightly better with the new system.

I, and others; absolutely ARE taking this into account...

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1 hour ago, Addona said:

I, and others; absolutely ARE taking this into account...

I think we need to be careful about what we are comparing.

The comparisons I have made in this thread are between the two possible paths in the 2022 WCQ process.

If one wants to compare the chances of qualifying now vs. the previous method, that is a different thing. Although I think it would again come down to a comparison of the two possible paths in the new process. Even the old process had a bias towards higher ranked teams because of group seeding.

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7 hours ago, johnyb said:

The one thing I would add that most aren't discussing or using in their calculations is the chance that we wouldn't have qualified for the Hex. We haven't in over 20 years, and while I was optimistic we would have made it this time, you have to factor that in the calculations. Based on Round 3 of the 2018 Qualifying, our group was Mex, Hon, Can, ElS. What are our odds of advancing to the Hex if we were dealt a similar group? 50% at best probably somewhere in the 30-40 range. Any calculation needs to start with this. I don't like the new format but based on this, I think our chances are slightly better with the new system.

Been following for too long.  For the first time in as long as i can recall,  i thought that we were on the upswing this time.   Even despite the loss to Haiti at the GC,  i had seen positives in our play.  So I actually thought that under the old format, there was chance this time.  This was not how i felt going into the WCQ for 2018 whereby, personel-wise, i thought we were regressing.  Also thought coaching-wise,  we had an imposter.

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If you are in the #7-35...

You are one bad match away against a decent side in a home and away from being eliminated, just look at UEFA CL upsets. You need to play 4 of those for for the .5 spot. Could be out 1st round to Panama.

The #4 team in the hex cross over could easily be a top 3 team. As of today's rankings, #2-#5 in my opinion is very tight this cycle in the hex.

4 region playoff, we are almost drawing dead vs a South American side(Chile, Peru, Columbia), Asian side would be a favorite over us, and only NZ we'd be a slight favorite to win. 

It's innovative but flawed for so many reasons especially teams #4 - #10. El Salvador & Jamaica are top 6 in Fifa because of their Friendlies in the past 12-18 months. Look at the ELO rankings, that's a better top 6.

 

Edited by apbsmith

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If we end up #7-35 as of today here will be our prep and schedule...

Multiple victories over minnows with 1-0 W over St.kitts away. 

2-0 win over T&T (neutral)

Loss vs Haiti. (Neutral)

US Nations League ( not sure US bring A team, we will see).

Minnows 1st round

Knock out home and away vs decent side. 

*Hopefully away friendlies or friendlies will be scheduled*.

Being politically correct as possible, I'm more confident in Herdman over 10 games then I am in an elimination home and away. Now add the unknowns of the .5 spot (what#4 hex team? + what intercontinental playoff team ?). I personally see way more benefits for us CANADA being in the hex.... Face the music head on , make top 6 then prove we belong, if we are good enough, we will make the WC, pretty simple.

Edited by apbsmith

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I think Canada has the same chances of earning the 0.5 spot via the 7-35 route or the hexagonal route, and here is why.

My thoughts on each Teams odds of finishing fourth in the hex. (If Canada was included in the hex.)

Mexico 2%

USA 10%

Costa Rica 30%

Honduras 25%

Jamaica 18%

Canada 15%

Total 100%

 

Now Canada's odds-on progressing Through 7-35 route:

Group stage: 90%

Round of 8 (potentially a team like Curacao) 70%

Round of 4 (potentially a team like T and T) 55%

Round of 2 ( team like Panama) 40%

0.9 x 0.7 x 0.55 x 0.4 = 0.14 (14%)

More or less the same odds.

The problem I have is that being involved in the 7 to 35 route, leaves no possibility of automatic qualification to the World Cup.

What I would do to address this, is have the winner of the 7 to 35 stage play the 3 and 4 finishers of the hex in a modified home and away group of 3 to determine the automatic World Cup spot and the .5 five spot.

The modification would be that the 3 and 4 finishers from the hex, would not actually play each other at this stage (because they already have). Their points against each other would carry over. So the 7-35 champ would play the 3rd-place hex finisher home and away and then play the 4th Place finisher home and away.

The first place finisher of this group of three gets the automatic spot, the second-place finisher gets the .5 spot

 It would only add two extra games beyond what has officially being proposed, and in my opinion is a more fair option for the 7-35 teams.

 

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41 minutes ago, Kusch to the Corner said:

 

The problem I have is that being involved in the 7 to 35 route, leaves no possibility of automatic qualification to the World Cup.

 

Agree, in my eyes, that is where the major flaw is.

 

Edited by apbsmith

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Home & Aways are intense guys, all it takes over 120 mins is a poor 15 mins and you are done, a bad PK, defensive miscue, goalie blunder, etc. Etc. 

Look at just last year in home and aways at Champions League, check out these odds teams came back from to win the leg. Very valid argument all the underdogs were the underdogs before the leg even started.

Underdogs Opponents Situation Chance of progress
Liverpool Barcelona SF: Liverpool 3-0 down 4%
Ajax Real Madrid R16: Ajax 2-1 down 4%
Man Utd PSG R16: Man Utd 2-0 down 5%
Ajax Juventus QF: 1-1 after first leg 15%
Juventus Atletico Madrid R16: Juve 2-0 down 22%
Tottenham Man City QF: Spurs 1-0 up 27%
Tottenham Ajax SF: Spurs 1-0 down 29%
Edited by apbsmith

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1 hour ago, Kusch to the Corner said:

The problem I have is that being involved in the 7 to 35 route, leaves no possibility of automatic qualification to the World Cup.

What I would do to address this, is have the winner of the 7 to 35 stage play the 3 and 4 finishers of the hex in a modified home and away group of 3 to determine the automatic World Cup spot and the .5 five spot.

The modification would be that the 3 and 4 finishers from the hex, would not actually play each other at this stage (because they already have). Their points against each other would carry over. So the 7-35 champ would play the 3rd-place hex finisher home and away and then play the 4th Place finisher home and away.

The first place finisher of this group of three gets the automatic spot, the second-place finisher gets the .5 spot

 It would only add two extra games beyond what has officially being proposed, and in my opinion is a more fair option for the 7-35 teams.

 

That solution sounds interesting, but is also flawed in my opinion. You could have a situation where the 3rd place hex team was beaten head to head against the 4th place hex team. Say the hex teams both sweep the 7-35 champ. 4th leapfrogs the 3rd place team to get the automatic spot due to what would otherwise be a tiebreaker (even though they had more points in the hex).

I think any system with 2 parallel routes is going to be deeply flawed. The system CONCACAF is going with doesn't need tweaks, it needs to be ripped up and thrown out.

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