What do you think of the CONCACAF WCQ for 2022?

[Kent]

More fun with math.

Hypothetically speaking, if we are in the 7-35 tournament, and win our group, and let's say we have a 90% chance of winning the first home/away matchup, and 90% chance of winning the next one, 90% for the next one, and 90% for the matchup with the 4th place hex team, that works out to only a 66% chance to run the gauntlet successfully.

Replace 90% with 80% (which is still very high for some matchups, in particular the hex match up) our chances of running the gauntlet is down to 41%.

This isn't an argument that the hex would be easier, but just that the road is going to be hard, anyway you slice it.

[johnyb]

13 minutes ago, Lofty said:

^ The trouble is, other teams will be doing the same calculation. Using the current FIFA rankings, Jamaica, Hondurass, and El Salvador flesh out the top 6. That leaves Canada, Panama, Haiti, and T&T in the path of 29. If they all calculate their chances the same way, there is at least a 164% chance that one team will advance! Which is why I think even 40% is a bit too high for Canada.

Compare with the hexagonal. We could realistically, albeit a little pessimistically, say it is really a battle for 4th, as we are extremely unlikely to come 3rd (or higher!) in a full round robin. Then what are our chances? If those bottom three teams are roughly equal, 33.3%. If we are the 6th best team then the other two have a better chance, so maybe 20-25%. (Overall chances increase when you add in the small probability that we finish top three.)

When all things are considered, our chances of qualifying seem similar to me either way (although slightly better in the hexagonal because of the possibility of finishing top three).

The one thing I would add that most aren't discussing or using in their calculations is the chance that we wouldn't have qualified for the Hex. We haven't in over 20 years, and while I was optimistic we would have made it this time, you have to factor that in the calculations. Based on Round 3 of the 2018 Qualifying, our group was Mex, Hon, Can, ElS. What are our odds of advancing to the Hex if we were dealt a similar group? 50% at best probably somewhere in the 30-40 range. Any calculation needs to start with this. I don't like the new format but based on this, I think our chances are slightly better with the new system.

[Obinna]

46 minutes ago, johnyb said:

The one thing I would add that most aren't discussing or using in their calculations is the chance that we wouldn't have qualified for the Hex. We haven't in over 20 years, and while I was optimistic we would have made it this time, you have to factor that in the calculations. Based on Round 3 of the 2018 Qualifying, our group was Mex, Hon, Can, ElS. What are our odds of advancing to the Hex if we were dealt a similar group? 50% at best probably somewhere in the 30-40 range. Any calculation needs to start with this. I don't like the new format but based on this, I think our chances are slightly better with the new system.

This. 

I'll also add that your point highlights the futility of such calculations to begin with. If we must factor in our past failures over the past 20 years (and I think we should), it's all a little ridiculous, isn't it?

Fun as it may be, I wouldn't put much stock in any of these attempts to calculate our odds (though I do appreciate the efforts of those who did attempt these calculations).

Either way, FIFA rankings aside, this is a good move for concacaf. Keeps all countries engaged and it's a unique and fresh approach.

Edited July 16, 2019 by Obinna

[Binky]

 

[Addona]

2 hours ago, johnyb said:

The one thing I would add that most aren't discussing or using in their calculations is the chance that we wouldn't have qualified for the Hex. We haven't in over 20 years, and while I was optimistic we would have made it this time, you have to factor that in the calculations. Based on Round 3 of the 2018 Qualifying, our group was Mex, Hon, Can, ElS. What are our odds of advancing to the Hex if we were dealt a similar group? 50% at best probably somewhere in the 30-40 range. Any calculation needs to start with this. I don't like the new format but based on this, I think our chances are slightly better with the new system.

I, and others; absolutely ARE taking this into account...

[Free kick]

7 hours ago, johnyb said:

The one thing I would add that most aren't discussing or using in their calculations is the chance that we wouldn't have qualified for the Hex. We haven't in over 20 years, and while I was optimistic we would have made it this time, you have to factor that in the calculations. Based on Round 3 of the 2018 Qualifying, our group was Mex, Hon, Can, ElS. What are our odds of advancing to the Hex if we were dealt a similar group? 50% at best probably somewhere in the 30-40 range. Any calculation needs to start with this. I don't like the new format but based on this, I think our chances are slightly better with the new system.

Been following for too long.  For the first time in as long as i can recall,  i thought that we were on the upswing this time.   Even despite the loss to Haiti at the GC,  i had seen positives in our play.  So I actually thought that under the old format, there was chance this time.  This was not how i felt going into the WCQ for 2018 whereby, personel-wise, i thought we were regressing.  Also thought coaching-wise,  we had an imposter.

[narduch]

12 minutes ago, Free kick said:

Also thought coaching-wise,  we had an imposter.

I don't think things have changed on that front 

[apbsmith]

If you are in the #7-35...

You are one bad match away against a decent side in a home and away from being eliminated, just look at UEFA CL upsets. You need to play 4 of those for for the .5 spot. Could be out 1st round to Panama.

The #4 team in the hex cross over could easily be a top 3 team. As of today's rankings, #2-#5 in my opinion is very tight this cycle in the hex.

4 region playoff, we are almost drawing dead vs a South American side(Chile, Peru, Columbia), Asian side would be a favorite over us, and only NZ we'd be a slight favorite to win. 

It's innovative but flawed for so many reasons especially teams #4 - #10. El Salvador & Jamaica are top 6 in Fifa because of their Friendlies in the past 12-18 months. Look at the ELO rankings, that's a better top 6.

 

Edited July 17, 2019 by apbsmith

[apbsmith]

If we end up #7-35 as of today here will be our prep and schedule...

Multiple victories over minnows with 1-0 W over St.kitts away. 

2-0 win over T&T (neutral)

Loss vs Haiti. (Neutral)

US Nations League ( not sure US bring A team, we will see).

Minnows 1st round

Knock out home and away vs decent side. 

*Hopefully away friendlies or friendlies will be scheduled*.

Being politically correct as possible, I'm more confident in Herdman over 10 games then I am in an elimination home and away. Now add the unknowns of the .5 spot (what#4 hex team? + what intercontinental playoff team ?). I personally see way more benefits for us CANADA being in the hex.... Face the music head on , make top 6 then prove we belong, if we are good enough, we will make the WC, pretty simple.

Edited July 17, 2019 by apbsmith

[Kusch to the Corner]

I think Canada has the same chances of earning the 0.5 spot via the 7-35 route or the hexagonal route, and here is why.

My thoughts on each Teams odds of finishing fourth in the hex. (If Canada was included in the hex.)

Mexico 2%

USA 10%

Costa Rica 30%

Honduras 25%

Jamaica 18%

Canada 15%

Total 100%

 

Now Canada's odds-on progressing Through 7-35 route:

Group stage: 90%

Round of 8 (potentially a team like Curacao) 70%

Round of 4 (potentially a team like T and T) 55%

Round of 2 ( team like Panama) 40%

0.9 x 0.7 x 0.55 x 0.4 = 0.14 (14%)

More or less the same odds.

The problem I have is that being involved in the 7 to 35 route, leaves no possibility of automatic qualification to the World Cup.

What I would do to address this, is have the winner of the 7 to 35 stage play the 3 and 4 finishers of the hex in a modified home and away group of 3 to determine the automatic World Cup spot and the .5 five spot.

The modification would be that the 3 and 4 finishers from the hex, would not actually play each other at this stage (because they already have). Their points against each other would carry over. So the 7-35 champ would play the 3rd-place hex finisher home and away and then play the 4th Place finisher home and away.

The first place finisher of this group of three gets the automatic spot, the second-place finisher gets the .5 spot

 It would only add two extra games beyond what has officially being proposed, and in my opinion is a more fair option for the 7-35 teams.

 

[apbsmith]

41 minutes ago, Kusch to the Corner said:

 

The problem I have is that being involved in the 7 to 35 route, leaves no possibility of automatic qualification to the World Cup.

 

Agree, in my eyes, that is where the major flaw is.

 

Edited July 17, 2019 by apbsmith

[apbsmith]

Home & Aways are intense guys, all it takes over 120 mins is a poor 15 mins and you are done, a bad PK, defensive miscue, goalie blunder, etc. Etc. 

Look at just last year in home and aways at Champions League, check out these odds teams came back from to win the leg. Very valid argument all the underdogs were the underdogs before the leg even started.

Underdogs	Opponents	Situation	Chance of progress
Liverpool	Barcelona	SF: Liverpool 3-0 down	4%
Ajax	Real Madrid	R16: Ajax 2-1 down	4%
Man Utd	PSG	R16: Man Utd 2-0 down	5%
Ajax	Juventus	QF: 1-1 after first leg	15%
Juventus	Atletico Madrid	R16: Juve 2-0 down	22%
Tottenham	Man City	QF: Spurs 1-0 up	27%
Tottenham	Ajax	SF: Spurs 1-0 down	29%

Edited July 17, 2019 by apbsmith

[Kent]

1 hour ago, Kusch to the Corner said:

The problem I have is that being involved in the 7 to 35 route, leaves no possibility of automatic qualification to the World Cup.

What I would do to address this, is have the winner of the 7 to 35 stage play the 3 and 4 finishers of the hex in a modified home and away group of 3 to determine the automatic World Cup spot and the .5 five spot.

The modification would be that the 3 and 4 finishers from the hex, would not actually play each other at this stage (because they already have). Their points against each other would carry over. So the 7-35 champ would play the 3rd-place hex finisher home and away and then play the 4th Place finisher home and away.

The first place finisher of this group of three gets the automatic spot, the second-place finisher gets the .5 spot

 It would only add two extra games beyond what has officially being proposed, and in my opinion is a more fair option for the 7-35 teams.

 

That solution sounds interesting, but is also flawed in my opinion. You could have a situation where the 3rd place hex team was beaten head to head against the 4th place hex team. Say the hex teams both sweep the 7-35 champ. 4th leapfrogs the 3rd place team to get the automatic spot due to what would otherwise be a tiebreaker (even though they had more points in the hex).

I think any system with 2 parallel routes is going to be deeply flawed. The system CONCACAF is going with doesn't need tweaks, it needs to be ripped up and thrown out.

[Ansem]

Why can't we have nice things in CONCACAF???? 

 

[Kusch to the Corner]

1 hour ago, Kent said:

That solution sounds interesting, but is also flawed in my opinion. You could have a situation where the 3rd place hex team was beaten head to head against the 4th place hex team. Say the hex teams both sweep the 7-35 champ. 4th leapfrogs the 3rd place team to get the automatic spot due to what would otherwise be a tiebreaker (even though they had more points in the hex).

I think any system with 2 parallel routes is going to be deeply flawed. The system CONCACAF is going with doesn't need tweaks, it needs to be ripped up and thrown out.

I considered the situation you described above, where the third-place finisher in the hex loses their spot to the fourth-place finisher, and I think I'm okay with that.

[Addona]

3 hours ago, Kusch to the Corner said:

My thoughts on each Teams odds of finishing fourth in the hex. (If Canada was included in the hex.)

Mexico 2%

USA 10%

Costa Rica 30%

Honduras 25%

Jamaica 18%

Canada 15%

Total 100%

This seems tremendously pessimistic ... so, what do you think Canada's position distribution in the HEX would be (1st-6th): 0%, 0%, 0%, 15%, 40%, 45%?

If so, then yes, it's about the same ... but I think the above numbers are too skewed to 4th-6th.  I don't think CR, Honduras, and Jamaica are really that much better than us.

My sense is that Canada's 1st-6th distribution (if they're in the HEX) is something closer to:  0%, 0%, 4%, 32%, 32%, 32%.  Or, even  if that's a little optimistic, this is totally reasonable:  0%, 0%, 2%, 28%, 35%, 35%.

The 2% and 4% may seem silly to include, but they are absolutely non-negligible!  They allow us to avoid 2 rounds of potential elimination, and qualify directly!

 

[Kent]

3 hours ago, Addona said:

This seems tremendously pessimistic ... so, what do you think Canada's position distribution in the HEX would be (1st-6th): 0%, 0%, 0%, 15%, 40%, 45%?

If so, then yes, it's about the same ... but I think the above numbers are too skewed to 4th-6th.  I don't think CR, Honduras, and Jamaica are really that much better than us.

My sense is that Canada's 1st-6th distribution (if they're in the HEX) is something closer to:  0%, 0%, 4%, 32%, 32%, 32%.  Or, even  if that's a little optimistic, this is totally reasonable:  0%, 0%, 2%, 28%, 35%, 35%.

The 2% and 4% may seem silly to include, but they are absolutely non-negligible!  They allow us to avoid 2 rounds of potential elimination, and qualify directly!

 

Anything where we are trying to assign percentages for our chances is not going to be accurate. It's garbage in (made up numbers), garbage out. I know I have contributed a bit to this. My main point was to make sure people know things like even if you have a 90% chance of winning each round, that doesn't mean you have a 90% chance of winning all the rounds combined.

It's fun with numbers, but nothing of any importance can really be gleaned by any of this, and we definitely can't use numbers we make up as a way to say which of the 2 paths is easier.

[Addona]

1 hour ago, Kent said:

Anything where we are trying to assign percentages for our chances is not going to be accurate. It's garbage in (made up numbers), garbage out. I know I have contributed a bit to this. My main point was to make sure people know things like even if you have a 90% chance of winning each round, that doesn't mean you have a 90% chance of winning all the rounds combined.

It's fun with numbers, but nothing of any importance can really be gleaned by any of this, and we definitely can't use numbers we make up as a way to say which of the 2 paths is easier.

We have to agree to disagree on this one ... if I said to someone, we need to beat the U.S., Mexico, and Brazil, they would rightly believe we have a lower chance of qualifying than if I said we needed to beat USVI, Dominica, and Bolivia.

Not all teams are equal, and even if they were, we could use 50% for every match up to arrive at a reasonable *estimate*.  Of course, I am an academic statistician, so my leanings are clear ...

Just because someone is using seemingly subjective probabilities, it doesn't mean there is no value to the method.  Assess the reasonableness of those probabilities!  Some may agree with my numbers, and some would believe different values are more appropriate ... nothing wrong with that.

[Ansem]

CONCACAF should have used the Nations League results for their format, NOT FIFA ranking.

It would have went something like this

• 4 group winners from League A --> (4) Qualify for HEX
• 4-team playoff featuring League A runners-up --> The winner (1), Qualify for HEX
• 4-team playoff between League B group winners --> The winner (1), Qualify for HEX

Total: 6

Everybody else --> Hunger Games for the .5 spot playoff spot

 

[CanadianSoccerFan]

27 minutes ago, Ansem said:

CONCACAF should have used the Nations League results for their format, NOT FIFA ranking.

It would have went something like this

• 4 group winners from League A --> (4) Qualify for HEX
• 4-team playoff featuring League A runners-up --> The winner (1), Qualify for HEX
• 4-team playoff between League B group winners --> The winner (1), Qualify for HEX

Total: 6

Everybody else --> Hunger Games for the .5 spot playoff spot

 

Nobody disagrees. The problem is FIFA has a rule that only FIFA rankings can be used to seed WCQ.  

 

 

[apbsmith]

22 minutes ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

Nobody disagrees. The problem is FIFA has a rule that only FIFA rankings can be used to seed WCQ.  

 

 

I disagree :), if you in Group B, you messed up,  I got no love for Group B.

[Ansem]

34 minutes ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

Nobody disagrees. The problem is FIFA has a rule that only FIFA rankings can be used to seed WCQ.  

 

 

But it was FIFA ranking that determined the seeding in nation league except those who previously made the Hex, no?

Wouldn't some sense of continuity apply here?

[SkuseisLoose]

41 minutes ago, Lofty said:

Well, the NAYS definitely have it but not as convincingly as in the initial mob outrage knee jerk vote!

I mean of the 80 people who have voted only 3 think it’s good so hardly say it’s not convincing.

[CanadianSoccerFan]

54 minutes ago, Ansem said:

But it was FIFA ranking that determined the seeding in nation league except those who previously made the Hex, no?

Wouldn't some sense of continuity apply here?

That's what they should've done but instead just made up their own ranking called the CONCACAF Ranking Index.  We curiously have heard nothing of this since it was used to seed Nations League qualifying.

https://www.concacafnationsleague.com/en/article/concacaf-launches-new-ranking-index

I have a feeling that Vic's original intent was to have Nations League results seed WCQ because he said it on the record many times.  I always found that curious, knowing that the rule about FIFA rankings existed.  I suspect he just didn't know at the time and was forced into the change by FIFA. 

 

See what Asia has done in comparison.  They fuse WCQ and Asian Cup qualifying into one streamlined process seeded using FIFA rankings. 

CONCACAF should've fused Nations League, Gold Cup qualifying and WCQ into one streamlined competition from the start of the quadrennial using FIFA rankings and then let the teams sort it out over the 4 years.  

[Blackdude]

1 hour ago, Ansem said:

But it was FIFA ranking that determined the seeding in nation league except those who previously made the Hex, no?

Wouldn't some sense of continuity apply here?

No, that was CONCACAF ranking.