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The Road to Qatar.

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Posted (edited)

Nothing "needs" to be done. There is always flexibility, and it is now the turn of national team play to be flexible (I cannot believe I just said that....next thing I am going to start peeing sitting down!).

Also, I think, in terms of the neutral-site (aka Miami, Houston, Los Angeles and Bradenton) vs. home-and-aways, we have to remember (as people here are not considering the disparity here)  that many places in the Carribean and Central America are several months away from even approaching their virus peaks. 

 

Edited by beachesl

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But 2021, next year starting from Gold Cup, if we do not at least win it all or even get to the semi final, then he will most likely be sacked before Qatar 2022 even starts. So basically the pressure on Herdman basically starts right now going into 2020-21 Nations League, into Gold Cup qualifying/Qatar 2022 CONCACAF qualifying. Then as far as Canada goes, for 2022, anything less than qualification for Qatar either directly or even through the playoffs is basically a failure especially with the array of talent Canada has at its disposal with Herdman as manager.

If Herdman doesn't qualify for Qatar 2022, he is for sure going to be fired. No way around that. Because the CSA are basically going to put expectations on him starting from next year into 2022 not only for the Gold Cup/Nations League but also for qualifying this team for Qatar, especially with the all-around overall talent we have, which we are not lacking in talent.

But then 2026 as tri-host, well one of the 3 hosts however, Canada at least has home advantage when the games are in Canada. I just hope they don't pull a South Africa in 2010 and Canada crash out in the group stage because that can happen which is what happened to South Africa in 2010. Bare minimum Canada in 2026 should advance to Round of 32 or even Round of 16 especially with it being 48 teams.

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7 hours ago, TGAA_Star said:

Unless they combine Nations League somehow with Gold Cup qualifying

Vic has repeatedly said this is not possible because the competitions have separate commercial and TV rights contracts. 

Unlike Nations League and the Gold Cup, rights to WCQ are sold by each individual federation with the lone exception of the Caribbean where the rights were stolen by Jack Warner and sold off for his own benefit (true story).

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16 minutes ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

Vic has repeatedly said this is not possible because the competitions have separate commercial and TV rights contracts. 

Unlike Nations League and the Gold Cup, rights to WCQ are sold by each individual federation with the lone exception of the Caribbean where the rights were stolen by Jack Warner and sold off for his own benefit (true story).

But then even so how then does Vic plan on having Nations League and Gold Cup qualifying unless Nations League gets scrapped. But even then you need Nations League especially if you are going to determine seeding for World Cup qualifying but also Nations League is pretty much used for Gold Cup qualifying too. Unless they cancel Gold Cup altogether as well as Nations League and just go straight into World Cup qualifying just like that.

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1 minute ago, TGAA_Star said:

But then even so how then does Vic plan on having Nations League and Gold Cup qualifying unless Nations League gets scrapped. But even then you need Nations League especially if you are going to determine seeding for World Cup qualifying but also Nations League is pretty much used for Gold Cup qualifying too. Unless they cancel Gold Cup altogether as well as Nations League and just go straight into World Cup qualifying just like that.

They only need to finish the Nations League final 4 which takes one week.  The next edition of Nations League will be after WCQ. 

Gold Cup won't be cancelled.  It pays for everything CONCACAF does.

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8 hours ago, TGAA_Star said:

 

But 2021, next year starting from Gold Cup, if we do not at least win it all or even get to the semi final, then he will most likely be sacked before Qatar 2022 even starts. So basically the pressure on Herdman basically starts right now going into 2020-21 Nations League, into Gold Cup qualifying/Qatar 2022 CONCACAF qualifying. Then as far as Canada goes, for 2022, anything less than qualification for Qatar either directly or even through the playoffs is basically a failure especially with the array of talent Canada has at its disposal with Herdman as manager.

If Herdman doesn't qualify for Qatar 2022, he is for sure going to be fired. No way around that. Because the CSA are basically going to put expectations on him starting from next year into 2022 not only for the Gold Cup/Nations League but also for qualifying this team for Qatar, especially with the all-around overall talent we have, which we are not lacking in talent.

But then 2026 as tri-host, well one of the 3 hosts however, Canada at least has home advantage when the games are in Canada. I just hope they don't pull a South Africa in 2010 and Canada crash out in the group stage because that can happen which is what happened to South Africa in 2010. Bare minimum Canada in 2026 should advance to Round of 32 or even Round of 16 especially with it being 48 teams.

I really don’t think when they hired Herdman he was brought in for 2022. I think his purpose is to get the team ready for 2026 and build the Excel program so we can start developing players for 2026. I think youth development is his number 1 priority for 2026 and 2022 is just a bonus but from what everyone is saying that is what he was brought in to do. The same way he transformed the women’s program.

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Honestly I'm not 100 % sure about Canada qualifying for Qatar to be honest yes we have some good talent up front and midfield but we are lacking in the back and that could be our  achilles heel , plus we need more depth across in all positions ,  I have noticed the nationa like Honduras , Panama,and Costa Rica  are getting a bit on the old side, but nations like  Jamiaca, Haiti, Suriname , worry me , but at the same time I think the US is a bit vunerable,  So anything can happen

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5 hours ago, gigi riva said:

Honestly I'm not 100 % sure about Canada qualifying for Qatar to be honest yes we have some good talent up front and midfield but we are lacking in the back and that could be our  achilles heel , plus we need more depth across in all positions ,  I have noticed the nationa like Honduras , Panama,and Costa Rica  are getting a bit on the old side, but nations like  Jamiaca, Haiti, Suriname , worry me , but at the same time I think the US is a bit vunerable,  So anything can happen

Yeah that's true Canada lacks depth at the back. I mean if any of our defenders were world class, then I think we would be solid. Other than that, the defense at best is suspect especially going into Gold Cup 2021/FIFA World Cup 2022 qualifying. Yeah Honduras, Panama and Costa Rica are getting older but are still strong in CONCACAF nonetheless. Jamaica, Haiti, Curacao, Trinidad and Tobago are getting there.

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5 hours ago, Daryn27 said:

I really don’t think when they hired Herdman he was brought in for 2022. I think his purpose is to get the team ready for 2026 and build the Excel program so we can start developing players for 2026. I think youth development is his number 1 priority for 2026 and 2022 is just a bonus but from what everyone is saying that is what he was brought in to do. The same way he transformed the women’s program.

Yeah I guess that makes sense but the Excel program for development of players for 2026 is a unique way of doing things. But then again isn't that what the CPL as a league is for, to develop Canadian players into stars?

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Vic clarified in the Onesoccer interview that CONCACAF covered all of the costs for Nations League so they may have to help out again.  Ideally some of these islands would take a pass on entering WCQ so they could start with a more manageable number of teams.

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5 hours ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

Vic clarified in the Onesoccer interview that CONCACAF covered all of the costs for Nations League so they may have to help out again.  Ideally some of these islands would take a pass on entering WCQ so they could start with a more manageable number of teams.

I'm going to have to disagree with you there. While it would be convenient, it is in no way ideal to have nations unable to participate in qualifying. I'd much rather Concacaf pay whatever amount of money to help these teams be able to play then the nations or the players not having a chance to qualify, no matter how small it is.

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Posted (edited)

http://www.rpctv.com/deportes/futbol/Mundial-Femenino-Sub-20-aplazado-agosto_0_1359164571.html#.XtAX_APKwaQ.twitter

The last 4 paragraphs mention that CONCACAF is thinking of a new format. The format mentioned talks about 3 groups of 4 based on FIFA rankings with team winning their group going to Qatar and the  best second place team playing the repechage with the best of the rest.

Edited by Blackdude

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2 minutes ago, Blackdude said:

http://www.rpctv.com/deportes/futbol/Mundial-Femenino-Sub-20-aplazado-agosto_0_1359164571.html#.XtAX_APKwaQ.twitter

The last 4 paragraphs mention that CONCACAF is thinking of a new format. The format mentioned talks about 3 groups of 4 based on FIFA rankings with team winning their group going to Qatar and the second teams playing the repechage with the best of the rest.

All three second place teams or just the best 2nd place team? 

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4 minutes ago, king1010 said:

Well not sure this format is any better for us, especially if we’re drawn against Mexico. 
 

Obviously best case scenario is avoid mexico. 

Canada would get destroyed by Mexico hell even if they face USA they will lose anyway so 

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5 minutes ago, TGAA_Star said:

Canada would get destroyed by Mexico hell even if they face USA they will lose anyway so 

Mexico Yes, USA wouldnt be a guaranteed loss. We could beat them if we’re on our game, but they would be the favorites. 

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Posted (edited)

Ugh!  In this format you're better off being in the minnow path.  Win the minnow path and beat the best 2nd place team and then beat New Zealand.  

Far too much depends on the draw.  If you get Mexico you have no chance of winning the group.  The race for 2nd is dependent on how weak your other opponents are.  Based on the current rankings, Antigua would be the last team in and whoever draws them will get the chance to light them up on goal difference.

Also note that Jamaica is just a point behind Costa Rica to be a top seed.  

image.png.7b7fe4aad63fe55f8796dbd82ccb103c.png

 

Worst Case:  Mexico, Honduras, Canada, Haiti

Best Case: Costa Rica, El Salvador, Canada, Antigua

 

The other part that doesn't make sense is the match days.  The minnow path would need 10 match days (5 KO rounds) to get from 23 teams to 1 challenger.  So even if the 3 groups of 4 is done in 6 matches they'll need to wait for the minnows to finish so it's still 12 match days required.  The only way around it is playing the minnows in 1-leg KO ties.

 

Edited by CanadianSoccerFan

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8 minutes ago, CanadianSoccerFan said:

Ugh!  In this format you're better off being in the minnow path.  Win the minnow path and beat the best 2nd place team and then beat New Zealand.  

Far too much depends on the draw.  If you get Mexico you have no chance of winning the group.  The race for 2nd is dependent on how weak your other opponents are.  Based on the current rankings, Antigua would be the last team in and whoever draws them will get the chance to light them up on goal difference.

 

Agreed. Really don’t like this format. 

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11 minutes ago, An Observer said:

Agreed. Really don’t like this format. 

Yeah it’s crazy to come down to goal difference or even points earned in their respective groups when the difficulty of each group could vary so much.
On the other hand, even if we lose to Mexico both games, as long as we went 4-0 in the other matches we’d still almost for sure get through. Much easier said than done though. 

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Several sources in Latin America already talk about this format https://www.90min.com/es/posts/asi-sera-el-nuevo-formato-de-clasificacion-al-mundial-de-qatar-2022-para-la-concacaf-01e8a87j48hy

Guatemala does not have it so difficult: I think they will win easily  the low tier and with some luck win the playoffs......lucky number 13 ;)

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Posted (edited)

Completely agree that depending on the draw, there could be a huge variance in the groups, greatly impacting a country's chance to earn an automatic spot or be the best 2nd place team.

I really like CanadianSoccerFan's best case scenario group, so let's just go with that for CanMNT. 😀 

Best case scenario if you had to be drawn in a group with Mexico would probably be to have El Salvador and A&B with you. That way, you'd have a better chance I think to be the best 2nd place team, as it seems more likely the other groups would have multiple teams taking points off each other. 

Edited by jtpc

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