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The Road to Qatar.

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1 hour ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

Panama just drew 0-0 with Nicaragua.

Being outside the FIFA window, Panama was far from being at full strength:

http://twitter.com/fepafut/status/1232455886112575489

@Kyle_The_Hill , I assume Panama's ranking has dropped by about 1¼ or so from 1304 to 1303. Next up for up them is Guatemala next week before their late March game vs El Salvador.

Yep, they lost 1.13, down to 1303 now.

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By the time the HEX rolls around we could have David playing just say Arsenal, Larin in the prem with Leeds and of course Davies. Canada would be a legit draw and just a really exciting team that even neutrals would tune in for. Concacaf really needs Canada in the HEX

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This may be heresy and I think we need to all we can to to get to the Hex...and it is really dumpster fire of a format...and... 

But if our players keep improving, like they have been, I am increasing optimistic about our chances if we have to go the other way. Probably.

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Still no word on tickets for the second game...  Hey Victoria folks: anybody have contacts at Langford City Centre Park? We should organize a party of concerned citizens to volunteer to clean their roof on March 31st...

https://theprovince.com/sports/soccer/international-soccer/canadas-second-game-with-trinidad-and-tobago-may-be-closed-to-public/amp?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter&__twitter_impression=true

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4 hours ago, WestHamCanadianinOxford said:

This may be heresy and I think we need to all we can to to get to the Hex...and it is really dumpster fire of a format...and... 

But if our players keep improving, like they have been, I am increasing optimistic about our chances if we have to go the other way. Probably.

The other way isn't so bad as long as we don't draw South America in the playoff.  

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3 hours ago, narduch said:

After Davies performance yesterday now would be a good time to start selling the 2nd game. 

Agreed. Davies was trending worldwide yesterday. There's no risk in opening up 6000 seats for that game.

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The one thing with the repechage, is that if you assume that US/Mexico/Costa Rica take the top three spots, we're going to have the two best players in every single CONCACAF playoff we're in.

The downside being that one (or two) ill-timed injuries will cause a lot of problems.

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12 minutes ago, Obinna said:

David and Davies are growing so fast, but I don't want us to be a two-trick pony. Call me greedy, but I want another young player to emerge. The best hope right now seems to be Millar. 

I am optimistic that Millar will become an elite player but I also have hope that Eustaquio will become a talent that can play a role almost as important to our overall results as the dynamic duo. At just 23 he is another one that will be with us for the next decade and can provide a vital link to these two and has impressed me with what I have seen so far.  

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12 hours ago, Obinna said:

David and Davies are growing so fast, but I don't want us to be a two-trick pony. Call me greedy, but I want another young player to emerge. The best hope right now seems to be Millar. 

We need two center backs to emerge!  I believe Miller can be one in a few years if he gets the playing time.  Tomori was the chosen one, the one that would bring balance to the force, but i digress.......

Edited by costarg

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8 hours ago, Lofty said:

Just to illustrate how shite the FIFA rankings are, here are the latest ELO World Rankings (CONCACAF only), which have Canada 5th, ahead of the Boyz in 6th and comfortably ahead of Haiti in 7th, the other team that would need to overtake us to knock us out of the top 6. Sigh.

https://eloratings.net/CONCACAF

(BTW, did someone finally exterminate the BedBugs? I wonder how long until they return as CockRoaches!)

El Salvador is ranked 10th on there lol. Absolutely ridiculous that they’ll be in the hex

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11 hours ago, saladroit said:

don't know where else to post this but apparently there's negotiations about another possible concacaf + conmebol tournament in 2024, ala Copa America Centenario in 2016

https://www.espn.com.mx/futbol/mexico/nota/_/id/6696291/planean-otra-copa-entre-concacaf-y-conmebol-para-2024

Would be a great learning experience for us if we were to qualify before World Cup 2026. 

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On 2/25/2020 at 11:55 PM, Kyle_The_Hill said:

Yep, they lost 1.13, down to 1303 now.

And now Panama just beat Guatemala in Guatemala City last night so their ranking will go back up.

http://twitter.com/fepafut/status/1235419213998837761

More importantly, Panama will feel that they can go into San Salvador and get the win. The more confidence they have, the better.

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Posted (edited)
On 2/25/2020 at 5:05 PM, Kyle_The_Hill said:

image.png.12c363933acb2c801ddb64ee70546603.png

Or an opportunity to drop 8 points 😉

Looks like the bosses at FESFUT have approved the friendly vs Belize. El Grafico have published an article where they claim their reporter has been given the inside scoop on what ticket prices will be for the two matches:

http://www.elgrafico.com/futbol/Revelan-los-precios-para-el-amistoso-entre-El-Salvador-y-Panama-20200306-0010.html

Thanks once again to @Kyle_The_Hill for all the calculations and for @xabuep2 for being the first to let us know about that Belize match.

Under the best possible circumstances, two wins for us and two losses for El Salvador we would be 6.7 points ahead by the end of the month.
Under the worst possible circumstances, two losses for us and two wins for El Salvador we would be 33.3 points behind and eliminated from the Hex, a hell of an April fools hangover.

If the results are more modest, let's say an El Salvador vs Panama draw and then El Salvador beat Belize. If we beat T&T during one game and draw the other, we will still be 13.3 points behind, which would kill our chances of reaching the Hex.

The odds are not in our favour.

Edited by Olympique_de_Marseille

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35 minutes ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

Looks like the bosses at FESFUT have approved the friendly vs Belize. El Grafico have published an article where they claim their reporter has been given the inside scoop on what ticket prices will be for the two matches:

http://www.elgrafico.com/futbol/Revelan-los-precios-para-el-amistoso-entre-El-Salvador-y-Panama-20200306-0010.html

Thanks once again to @Kyle_The_Hill for all the calculations and for @xabuep2 for being the first to let us know about that Belize match.

Under the best possible circumstances, two wins for us and two losses for El Salvador we would be 6.7 points ahead by the end of the month.
Under the worst possible circumstances, two losses for us and two wins for El Salvador we would be 33.3 points behind and eliminated from the Hex, a hell of an April fools hangover.

If the results are more modest, let's say an El Salvador vs Panama draw and then El Salvador beat Belize. If we beat T&T during one game and draw the other, we will still be 13.3 points behind, which would kill our chances of reaching the Hex.

The odds are not in our favour.

You’re certainly right that the odds are not in our favour. It wouldn’t take anything crazy to be right back in it though. We SHOULD win both vs T&T. That would put us 8.3 behind which isn’t insurmountable. Get lucky and have Panama beat ES and we’re only 3.3 behind and it’s a real race again.

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3 hours ago, archer21 said:

You’re certainly right that the odds are not in our favour. It wouldn’t take anything crazy to be right back in it though. We SHOULD win both vs T&T. That would put us 8.3 behind which isn’t insurmountable. Get lucky and have Panama beat ES and we’re only 3.3 behind and it’s a real race again.

This is our best case scenario I think.

If we were only 3 points behind then we could legitimately catch them.  I wonder if we could actually get a couple games against them if were that close.  I don’t think El Salvador would go with it.

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15 hours ago, archer21 said:

Get lucky and have Panama beat ES (and El Salvador beat Belize) and we’re only 3.3 behind and it’s a real race again.

I was just thinking "Will Belize play to their best in this friendly against El Salvador", then the thought popped into my head:

Teams ranked 7th to 35th are devided into 8 groups, A to H.

Rankings as they are right now
Pot 1:
Canada 1332 (1st in Pot 1)
.
.
St. Kitts and Nevis 1074 (8th in Pot 1)
---------------------------
Pot 2:
Suriname 1073 (1st in Pot 2)
.
.
Bermuda 984 (8th in Pot 2)
---------------------------
Pot 3
Belize 974 (1st in Pot 3)
.
.

So with:
-Barbados 1009 and Guyana 988 playing in Gold Cup qualifiers this month
-Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 986 stuck playing Guadeloupe for no points this month (and if SV&tG win they will be stuck playing Haiti, where they will likely lose points)
-Bermuda 974 possibly losing a point as a result of their friendly against Jamaica (and maybe unable to gain points in June if they have to play French Guiana)
...it makes sense that Belize would roll the dice and try and go for the 8 point win against El Salvador (or even the 3 point gain with the draw).
Pending certain outcomes, Belize could slip into Pot 2, and therefore have a much easier path during WCQ.

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18 minutes ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

I was just thinking "Will Belize play to their best in this friendly against El Salvador", then the thought popped into my head:

Teams ranked 7th to 35th are devided into 8 groups, A to H.

Rankings as they are right now
Pot 1:
Canada 1332 (1st in Pot 1)
.
.
St. Kitts and Nevis 1074 (8th in Pot 1)
---------------------------
Pot 2:
Suriname 1073 (1st in Pot 2)
.
.
Bermuda 984 (8th in Pot 2)
---------------------------
Pot 3
Belize 974 (1st in Pot 3)
.
.

So with:
-Barbados 1009 and Guyana 988 playing in Gold Cup qualifiers this month
-Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 986 stuck playing Guadeloupe for no points this month (and if SV&tG win they will be stuck playing Haiti, where they will likely lose points)
-Bermuda 974 possibly losing a point as a result of their friendly against Jamaica (and maybe unable to gain points in June if they have to play French Guiana)
...it makes sense that Belize would roll the dice and try and go for the 8 point win against El Salvador (or even the 3 point gain with the draw).
Pending certain outcomes, Belize could slip into Pot 2, and therefore have a much easier path during WCQ.

Are we certain that the 7-35 path will be broken down like this? I’m sure it is and you’re right, I just haven’t seen the evidence.

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36 minutes ago, youllneverwalkalone said:

Jonathan David will have like 100 international goals by age 22 if we progress through this back door route. Look out Christine, he coming.

If we don’t make the Hex and have to play the minnows then David and Cavalini will probably both be top 4 in Men’s scoring at the end of this qualifying period.

Also even though its limited points pickup, 12 straight qualifying wins would bump us up into the top 50 Fifa rankings probably.  

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