The Road to Qatar.

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

On 2/25/2020 at 5:05 PM, Kyle_The_Hill said:

Or an opportunity to drop 8 points 😉

Looks like the bosses at FESFUT have approved the friendly vs Belize. El Grafico have published an article where they claim their reporter has been given the inside scoop on what ticket prices will be for the two matches:

http://www.elgrafico.com/futbol/Revelan-los-precios-para-el-amistoso-entre-El-Salvador-y-Panama-20200306-0010.html

Thanks once again to @Kyle_The_Hill for all the calculations and for @xabuep2 for being the first to let us know about that Belize match.

Under the best possible circumstances, two wins for us and two losses for El Salvador we would be 6.7 points ahead by the end of the month.
Under the worst possible circumstances, two losses for us and two wins for El Salvador we would be 33.3 points behind and eliminated from the Hex, a hell of an April fools hangover.

If the results are more modest, let's say an El Salvador vs Panama draw and then El Salvador beat Belize. If we beat T&T during one game and draw the other, we will still be 13.3 points behind, which would kill our chances of reaching the Hex.

The odds are not in our favour.

Edited March 7, 2020 by Olympique_de_Marseille

[archer21]

35 minutes ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

Looks like the bosses at FESFUT have approved the friendly vs Belize. El Grafico have published an article where they claim their reporter has been given the inside scoop on what ticket prices will be for the two matches:

http://www.elgrafico.com/futbol/Revelan-los-precios-para-el-amistoso-entre-El-Salvador-y-Panama-20200306-0010.html

Thanks once again to @Kyle_The_Hill for all the calculations and for @xabuep2 for being the first to let us know about that Belize match.

Under the best possible circumstances, two wins for us and two losses for El Salvador we would be 6.7 points ahead by the end of the month.
Under the worst possible circumstances, two losses for us and two wins for El Salvador we would be 33.3 points behind and eliminated from the Hex, a hell of an April fools hangover.

If the results are more modest, let's say an El Salvador vs Panama draw and then El Salvador beat Belize. If we beat T&T during one game and draw the other, we will still be 13.3 points behind, which would kill our chances of reaching the Hex.

The odds are not in our favour.

You’re certainly right that the odds are not in our favour. It wouldn’t take anything crazy to be right back in it though. We SHOULD win both vs T&T. That would put us 8.3 behind which isn’t insurmountable. Get lucky and have Panama beat ES and we’re only 3.3 behind and it’s a real race again.

[baulderdash77]

3 hours ago, archer21 said:

You’re certainly right that the odds are not in our favour. It wouldn’t take anything crazy to be right back in it though. We SHOULD win both vs T&T. That would put us 8.3 behind which isn’t insurmountable. Get lucky and have Panama beat ES and we’re only 3.3 behind and it’s a real race again.

This is our best case scenario I think.

If we were only 3 points behind then we could legitimately catch them.  I wonder if we could actually get a couple games against them if were that close.  I don’t think El Salvador would go with it.

[Bertuzzi44]

I think we should put this dream of El Salvador agreeing to play us to bed. I see no chance they agree to that, unless somehow they are behind on points. But then why would we do it....

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

15 hours ago, archer21 said:

Get lucky and have Panama beat ES (and El Salvador beat Belize) and we’re only 3.3 behind and it’s a real race again.

I was just thinking "Will Belize play to their best in this friendly against El Salvador", then the thought popped into my head:

Teams ranked 7th to 35th are devided into 8 groups, A to H.

Rankings as they are right now
Pot 1:
Canada 1332 (1st in Pot 1)
.
.
St. Kitts and Nevis 1074 (8th in Pot 1)
---------------------------
Pot 2:
Suriname 1073 (1st in Pot 2)
.
.
Bermuda 984 (8th in Pot 2)
---------------------------
Pot 3
Belize 974 (1st in Pot 3)
.
.

So with:
-Barbados 1009 and Guyana 988 playing in Gold Cup qualifiers this month
-Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 986 stuck playing Guadeloupe for no points this month (and if SV&tG win they will be stuck playing Haiti, where they will likely lose points)
-Bermuda 974 possibly losing a point as a result of their friendly against Jamaica (and maybe unable to gain points in June if they have to play French Guiana)
...it makes sense that Belize would roll the dice and try and go for the 8 point win against El Salvador (or even the 3 point gain with the draw).
Pending certain outcomes, Belize could slip into Pot 2, and therefore have a much easier path during WCQ.

[Alex]

18 minutes ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

I was just thinking "Will Belize play to their best in this friendly against El Salvador", then the thought popped into my head:

Teams ranked 7th to 35th are devided into 8 groups, A to H.

Rankings as they are right now
Pot 1:
Canada 1332 (1st in Pot 1)
.
.
St. Kitts and Nevis 1074 (8th in Pot 1)
---------------------------
Pot 2:
Suriname 1073 (1st in Pot 2)
.
.
Bermuda 984 (8th in Pot 2)
---------------------------
Pot 3
Belize 974 (1st in Pot 3)
.
.

So with:
-Barbados 1009 and Guyana 988 playing in Gold Cup qualifiers this month
-Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 986 stuck playing Guadeloupe for no points this month (and if SV&tG win they will be stuck playing Haiti, where they will likely lose points)
-Bermuda 974 possibly losing a point as a result of their friendly against Jamaica (and maybe unable to gain points in June if they have to play French Guiana)
...it makes sense that Belize would roll the dice and try and go for the 8 point win against El Salvador (or even the 3 point gain with the draw).
Pending certain outcomes, Belize could slip into Pot 2, and therefore have a much easier path during WCQ.

Are we certain that the 7-35 path will be broken down like this? I’m sure it is and you’re right, I just haven’t seen the evidence.

[youllneverwalkalone]

Jonathan David will have like 100 international goals by age 22 if we progress through this back door route. Look out Christine, he coming.

[baulderdash77]

36 minutes ago, youllneverwalkalone said:

Jonathan David will have like 100 international goals by age 22 if we progress through this back door route. Look out Christine, he coming.

If we don’t make the Hex and have to play the minnows then David and Cavalini will probably both be top 4 in Men’s scoring at the end of this qualifying period.

Also even though its limited points pickup, 12 straight qualifying wins would bump us up into the top 50 Fifa rankings probably.  

[JuicyHam]

45 minutes ago, baulderdash77 said:

If we don’t make the Hex and have to play the minnows then David and Cavalini will probably both be top 4 in Men’s scoring at the end of this qualifying period.

Also even though its limited points pickup, 12 straight qualifying wins would bump us up into the top 50 Fifa rankings probably.  

I very much doubt we'll win every game though. There will more than likely be rough games in central America. We may be better but central America is always going to be tough. 

[baulderdash77]

2 minutes ago, JuicyHam said:

I very much doubt we'll win every game though. There will more than likely be rough games in central America. We may be better but central America is always going to be tough. 

The tough Central American teams are all in the Hex already.  The 7-35 is pretty easy except Haiti.

[SpursFlu]

Panama. Guatemala isn't an easy out. Especially away

Edited March 7, 2020 by SpursFlu

[dyslexic nam]

I know the history, but honestly with the player pool we have, we have to become a team that isn’t worried about going into some bumpy Central American pitch and getting a result.  We have the talent to power through these teams under pretty much all circumstances - we just need to consistently execute. 

[SpursFlu]

I'm with you. I'm just saying Panama and Guatemala are not terrible. Guatemala beat the US in the last qualifying 

[Blackdude]

I know we're better than 4 years ago, but we drew Belize.

[SpursFlu]

I think the final 4 of the play in would be interesting. It's just the group stage and everything leading up to it will be terrible and dreadful from a marketing perspective. Also if there are any dual nationals out there considering Canada, playing American Virgin Islands on a cricket pitch won't help

Edited March 7, 2020 by SpursFlu

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

A few things:

4 hours ago, Alex said:

Are we certain that the 7-35 path will be broken down like this? I’m sure it is and you’re right, I just haven’t seen the evidence.

They explain it here: http://www.concacaf.com/world-cup-qualifying-men/article/concacaf-announces-format-for-the-2022-fifa-world-cup-confederation-qualifiers

They don't explicitly say they will divide the teams this way but it is the only logical way if, as they say, Groups A, B, C, D & E will have 4 teams and F, G & H will have 3 teams:
-Rank 7 to 14 drawn into groups A to H
-Rank 15 to 22 drawn into groups A to H
-Rank 23 to 30 drawn into groups A to H
-Rank 31 to 35 drawn into groups A to E

3 hours ago, youllneverwalkalone said:

Jonathan David will have like 100 international goals by age 22 if we progress through this back door route....

 

2 hours ago, baulderdash77 said:

If we don’t make the Hex and have to play the minnows...

As much fun as this is to imagine, being in Group F, G or H would be ideal because those bottom teams are a waste of time and energy. The 30th ranked team, the Bahamas can't drop points this month since they play French Guiana twice in Gold Cup Qualifying.
This means the bottom 5 teams are a lock:
Aruba 867 (not good, but not a terrible team)
Turks & Caicos 862 (awful)
USVI 844 (awful)
B VI 842 (awful)
Anguilla 821 (awful)

Especially with a coronavirus that could keep crowds away and make travel difficult, playing one of those teams would be entirely unnecessary.
A lot of CSA money down the drain. Very little enthusiasm for the casual fan. Small crowds, but forced to play in a bigger stadium that complies with FIFA/CONCACAF standards. No thanks.

1 hour ago, dyslexic nam said:

I know the history, but honestly with the player pool we have...

Our player pool doesn't have much depth. We are still a few injuries away from disaster.

Edited March 7, 2020 by Olympique_de_Marseille

[An Observer]

1 hour ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

 

Especially with a coronavirus that could keep crowds away and make travel difficult, playing one of those teams would be entirely unnecessary.
A lot of CSA money down the drain. Very little enthusiasm for the casual fan. Small crowds, but forced to play in a bigger stadium that complies with FIFA/CONCACAF standards. No thanks.

I think with the coronavirus, the more likely scenario by the day is that the March friendly matches get cancelled and perhaps even FIFA closes the window.  I dont see federations taking the risk of flying players in from all over the world to play such matches. It would suck for us but the Road to Qatar may be seriously clogged by the virus 

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

On 2/25/2020 at 5:05 PM, Kyle_The_Hill said:

So this is the scenario.

It's official now; Belize have confirmed the match:
http://www.facebook.com/footballbelize/photos/a.462810150534504/1597571173725057/

[Kadenge]

Jerry Bengston the Canadian killer strikes again vs Montreal yesterday. Anyone who thinks our "superior talent"  makes us top 3/4 in Concacaf should watch a replay of last night's game. Honduras know how to win with less talent, work the ref and are made of glass when ahead....nothing has changed in 20 years! We need to learn to "play the Concacaf game". Playing on cow pastures with incompetent refs makes every game away a risky affair. 

[costarg]

1 hour ago, Kadenge said:

Jerry Bengston the Canadian killer strikes again vs Montreal yesterday. Anyone who thinks our "superior talent"  makes us top 3/4 in Concacaf should watch a replay of last night's game. Honduras know how to win with less talent, work the ref and are made of glass when ahead....nothing has changed in 20 years! We need to learn to "play the Concacaf game". Playing on cow pastures with incompetent refs makes every game away a risky affair. 

Good points, however the cow pasture you're mocking is infinitely better than the turf at the Big O.  Probably better than most synthetic turfs actually.

[SkuseisLoose]

Haha turf bad amirite

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

Panama has cancelled on El Salvador.

So friendly #1 is officially off.

One assumes Belize will follow suit.

http://www.fepafut.com/noticias/3981/comite-ejecutivo-de-fepafut-anuncia-medidas-ante-situacion-por-el-covid-19

[Bdog]

Watch us not make the hex just from all the games being cancelled.

A playoff against El Salvador for the final spot would be the only fair solution.  It would piss them off but at least we’d CONCACAF someone for once. 

[CanadianSoccerFan]

[xabuep2]

The fairest thing would be to put Canada - El Salvador to play for a spot in the hex. Because of the Covid-19 situation, the friendly matches are cancelled and FIFA ranking is stagnant. The CSA could take advantage of this situation and request it to CONCACAF.