The Road to Qatar.

[Alex]

El Salvador will play at home to panama March 27 and away to Costa Rica March 31. Hmm. IF everything goes our way we could be sitting pretty before the June friendlies even happen.

[toontownman]

31 minutes ago, Alex said:

El Salvador will play at home to panama March 27 and away to Costa Rica March 31. Hmm. IF everything goes our way we could be sitting pretty before the June friendlies even happen.

Are they both official friendlies or are they pulling the same antics as last month?

Seems crazy risky. I guess they get to grow and a positive result in either will likely send them through.

I am glad it looks like the CSA might pull their finger out and go for it though. 

[Kyle_The_Hill]

Canada can move into 6th place if we win both matches and they lose both of theirs (exact point totals may change slightly due to Panama and Costa Rica friendlies beforehand).

[trc2014]

10 minutes ago, Kyle_The_Hill said:

Canada can move into 6th place if we win both matches and they lose both of theirs (exact point totals may change slightly due to Panama and Costa Rica friendlies beforehand).

This is obviously all of our preference but somewhat a no lose both ways for our morale as Canada soccer fans.  If El Salvador somehow manages to win both games, including an away at CR, I think there is a strong argument they deserve 6th place at this point (assuming no shocking changes in the June window).  That being said, if they get two wins I’d be shocked.

Edited February 20, 2020 by trc2014

[sloth8]

1 hour ago, Kyle_The_Hill said:

https://us.as.com/us/2020/02/17/futbol/1581968523_520857.html?fbclid=IwAR3VlN-OulKuWdKRC6H_dDIz7EiCNTRm5IpNsyjKwv6hJcGZQIJcaQ9LRmw

@Olympique_de_Marseille slacking 😉

For real though, this is crazy. El Salvador are set to play Costa Rica in Costa Rica on March 31.

 

What's weird about that article is that it says Canada is 18 points behind when it is only 14. It also says that the most points a team can earn in one window is 8 points (4 points for each win). I am not sure where the author is getting his information from, but I would think their FA has a better handle on how FIFA points are calculated.

[Floortom]

Are we sure ES won’t try to make these “training matches” again?

their strategy of playing such losable matches doesn’t make a lick of sense.

[trc2014]

40 minutes ago, Floortom said:

Are we sure ES won’t try to make these “training matches” again?

their strategy of playing such losable matches doesn’t make a lick of sense.

I had the same feeling but it’s also pretty risky for them to not try to accumulate any points in this window.

[Kyle_The_Hill]

50 minutes ago, Floortom said:

Are we sure ES won’t try to make these “training matches” again?

their strategy of playing such losable matches doesn’t make a lick of sense.

Panama game will definitely be for points as they are making a push for the Hex. Costa Rica game could potentially be training we'll have to see.

I like how you won't admit you were wrong that "The truth is it’s almost impossible that we overtake El Salvador." and have insert a negative comment every time a friendly gets announced.

[CanadianSoccerFan]

5 hours ago, Kyle_The_Hill said:

Canada can move into 6th place if we win both matches and they lose both of theirs (exact point totals may change slightly due to Panama and Costa Rica friendlies beforehand).

[Unnamed Trialist]

5 hours ago, Kyle_The_Hill said:

Canada can move into 6th place if we win both matches and they lose both of theirs (exact point totals may change slightly due to Panama and Costa Rica friendlies beforehand).

 

 

[archer21]

On 2/13/2020 at 8:40 PM, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

The whole point of Costa Rica playing us is that their match against El Salvador fell through. I think the leadership is of two minds, the president of FESFUT loves these friendlies in the States but the coach absolutely wants to bring this team to the Hex. Looks like they got scared of losing points and backed out of their friendly with Costa Rica.

So El Salvador plays Panama at home and hopes that home field advantage will give them a win. 4.6 points.

Now Hugo in that article said 7 points.

So @Kyle_The_Hill of the teams that are left, who will El Salvador play to gain 2.4 points? A neighbour like Nicaragua?

El Salvador seems to have finally come to terms with the most logical strategy, that is to play weaker sides to maintain a points gap between themselves and us.

@Olympique_de_Marseille where did you get this from? According to @Kyle_The_Hill ES is playing Costa Rica. I just assumed you were correct when you said that fell through but I haven’t actually seen any proof of that.

[Alex]

That was from a week ago, I think it did fall through then I guess they kissed and made up?

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

8 hours ago, Kyle_The_Hill said:

https://us.as.com/us/2020/02/17/futbol/1581968523_520857.html?fbclid=IwAR3VlN-OulKuWdKRC6H_dDIz7EiCNTRm5IpNsyjKwv6hJcGZQIJcaQ9LRmw

@Olympique_de_Marseille slacking 😉

For real though, this is crazy. El Salvador are set to play Costa Rica in Costa Rica on March 31.

 

Not slacking! As @archer21 points out, there was previously a rumour of a Costa Rica vs El Salvador match in Washington DC. Then the media in Costa Rica mentioned that El Salvador had cancelled that.

Some sites are reporting that it will be Panama vs Costa Rica in San José, some are reporting that it will be El Salvador vs Costa Rica in San José. I'm not sure what the truth is.

I suspect that El Salvador are not stupid enough to play Costa Rica. For example, this article from Panama states that the game will be between Costa Rica and Panama and will be at the home stadium of Cartaginés (actually about 30km from San José). This one seems more credible to me:

http://elsiglo.com.pa/deportes/frente-costa-rica-marzo/24151167

Edit:

Also another link from the media in Costa Rica:

http://www.teletica.com/amp/249678_la-sele-volvera-al-fello-meza-24-anos-despues

Edited February 21, 2020 by Olympique_de_Marseille

[CanadianSoccerFan]

According to the Salvadoran press,  The FA President is speaking to the head of their domestic league about playing two matches but only the Panama game is confirmed.

https://www.elgrafico.com/futbol/Primera-division-cedera-jugadores-a-seleccion-20200220-0002.html

 

Who else is even available?

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

Confirmed. 

Costa Rica at Red Bull arena vs Greece.

Then at home in San José vs Panama.

http://www.twitter.com/fedefutbolcrc/status/1230878594815209473

[Floortom]

17 hours ago, trc2014 said:

I had the same feeling but it’s also pretty risky for them to not try to accumulate any points in this window.

They need to accumulate points but all they “need” is to beat some minnows.

if they were to play 4 minnows over the next two windows and pick up ~8points that would put us 22 back. 
Maybe they have more confidence in their squad than I do but it’s a bizarre strategy IMO

Edited February 21, 2020 by Floortom

[TFC2017]

1 minute ago, BedBugs said:

For the sake of argument, is it possible that the Salvadoran and Panamanian football associations have conspired to schedule a fictitious match between themselves which will never be played, in order to force the CSA's hand? I thought it somewhat suspicious that Canada wound up arranging a match with Iceland, long after El Salvador and Iceland had already agreed to their match. Could it be that there's some Salvadoran pay-back in the works?

In my opinion I actually think Panama is stronger than El Salvador and would rather they play them in the 'B' route to get to the World Cup over playing Canada who i feel (on paper anyways) is a much more daunting task.. 

[Alex]

6 minutes ago, TFC2017 said:

In my opinion I actually think Panama is stronger than El Salvador and would rather they play them in the 'B' route to get to the World Cup over playing Canada who i feel (on paper anyways) is a much more daunting task.. 

We are a much more daunting task on paper, but the fact still remains. We have not won in Central America since November, 2004. This must change this cycle or we don’t make the World Cup. 

[Kent]

2 hours ago, Floortom said:

They need to accumulate points but all they “need” is to beat some minnows.

if they were to play 4 minnows over the next two windows and pick up ~8points that would put us 22 back. 
Maybe they have more confidence in their squad than I do but it’s a bizarre strategy IMO

I thought they have done better against non-minnows than against minnows, so I tried to confirm. Games from 2018 on.

Minnows:
W vs Montserrat
W vs Barbados
L vs Bermuda
W vs Saint Lucia
L vs Dominican Republic
W vs Montserrat
W vs Saint Lucia
W vs Montserrat
W vs Dominican Republic

Non-minnows:
W vs Honduras
L vs Brazil
W vs Haiti
W vs Guatemala
W vs Jamaica
W vs Haiti
L vs Japan
W vs Curacao
D vs Jamaica
L vs Honduras
L vs Iceland

Against minnows, points per game of 2.33
Against non-minnows, points per game of 1.73

So they have better results against minnows, but maybe not enough of a difference to make it worth it to them due to the ranking risk/reward. It still seems stupid of them to be playing tougher teams when they just need to coast to 6th place. 

[johnyb]

2 hours ago, Floortom said:

They need to accumulate points but all they “need” is to beat some minnows.

if they were to play 4 minnows over the next two windows and pick up ~8points that would put us 22 back. 
Maybe they have more confidence in their squad than I do but it’s a bizarre strategy IMO

Or maybe they have less. Maybe they think like me, that they wouldn't be able to get 4 wins against 4 minnows. If they go 2 wins a tie and a loss, they lose points overall. 

[johnyb]

20 minutes ago, Kent said:

I thought they have done better against non-minnows than against minnows, so I tried to confirm. Games from 2018 on.

Minnows:
W vs Montserrat
W vs Barbados
L vs Bermuda
W vs Saint Lucia
L vs Dominican Republic
W vs Montserrat
W vs Saint Lucia
W vs Montserrat
W vs Dominican Republic

Non-minnows:
W vs Honduras
L vs Brazil
W vs Haiti
W vs Guatemala
W vs Jamaica
W vs Haiti
L vs Japan
W vs Curacao
D vs Jamaica
L vs Honduras
L vs Iceland

Against minnows, points per game of 2.33
Against non-minnows, points per game of 1.73

So they have better results against minnows, but maybe not enough of a difference to make it worth it to them due to the ranking risk/reward. It still seems stupid of them to be playing tougher teams when they just need to coast to 6th place. 

Sorry Kent, didn't see your post. I think were making the same point.

[archer21]

16 minutes ago, BedBugs said:

Why don't we ever play home friendlies against African opponents? Senegal, Tunisia, Nigeria, Algeria, Morocco, Ghana, Egypt, Cameroon, Mali, Congo DR, Burkina Faso, Cote d'Ivorie and South Africa are all ranked ahead of us at the moment, and you'd have to think that there's a few Canadian places in March where they'd freeze their nuts off?

Why would they agree to play in Canada and freeze their nuts off?

[Obinna]

29 minutes ago, BedBugs said:

Why don't we ever play home friendlies against African opponents? Senegal, Tunisia, Nigeria, Algeria, Morocco, Ghana, Egypt, Cameroon, Mali, Congo DR, Burkina Faso, Cote d'Ivorie and South Africa are all ranked ahead of us at the moment, and you'd have to think that there's a few Canadian places in March where they'd freeze their nuts off?

I would not want to play Nigeria. Too many good attackers up against our mediocre defense. And while their defense is traditionally prone to a lack of concentration, the athleticism could snuff out our strong, but not elite attack. I am more of a Canada fan nowadays and haven't watched Nigeria much recently, but I am familiar with who plays on the backline and where they play their club ball. It is at a higher level on average compared to our defenders.

I don't think we match up well with the African teams in general if I throw them all in the same "athletic" pot. Haiti gave us trouble and we can get by T&T because we have enough quality to overcome them. The top sub saharan African teams are a notch above the Caribbean teams skill wise, but with a similar athletic profile and style. I don't think it is a good idea. Now perhaps the North African teams on the other hand I would be more comfortable with, but they also have very good players at good clubs. I do not trust us to beat Algeria or Morocco.

I would rather play Bolivia or even Ecuador, the latter having physically strong players, but they are still Latin in their style and play with that sort of tempo, but when their execution let's them down we get opportunities. African teams I think play more direct and with a higher pace of play. A lot of balls in behind, etc. Less risks in vurnurable areas, so less chances for us, as I see it.

Most of this is generalization, but there may be room to argue some of this if you want to get granular about a particular team. I don't profess to be an expert on any of these teams.

Edited February 21, 2020 by Obinna

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

4 hours ago, BedBugs said:

Why don't we ever play home friendlies against African opponents? Senegal, Tunisia, Nigeria, Algeria, Morocco, Ghana, Egypt, Cameroon, Mali, Congo DR, Burkina Faso, Cote d'Ivorie and South Africa are all ranked ahead of us at the moment, and you'd have to think that there's a few Canadian places in March where they'd freeze their nuts off?

Robert, you need to start looking at who plays when:

http://www.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Africa_Cup_of_Nations_qualification

http://www.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_(CAF)

Yes, South Africa would be a great opponent but all of those teams have two matches already booked for the March and June windows.

Late May, on "neutral" ground in Europe, when the European club season is over? Perhaps. But otherwise, this isn't possible.

[BuzzAndSting]

Just now, BedBugs said:

How many international friendlies did Canada play in 2018?

How many international friendlies did Canada play in 2019?

And now, all of a sudden Canada is playing 5 international friendlies is 3 months time?

Is it Robert or the CSA who needs to start looking at who plays when?

It’s you.