The Road to Qatar.

[archer21]

3 hours ago, Kyle_The_Hill said:

I know and it is possible, just seems unlikely. Also:

If this ends up being the matches and ES plays Costa Rica and Panama, we need to obviously get better results than them. If we do 0.5 games better (e.g. 2 wins vs a win and a draw from ES), we gain 3.6 points. If we do 1 game better (e.g. 2 wins vs a win and a loss from ES) we gain 8.6 points. If we do 1.5 games better (e.g. 2 wins vs a draw and a loss from ES) we gain 13.6 points. If we do 2 games better (2 wins vs 2 losses from ES) we gain 18.6 points. Realistically, anything less than the 8.6 point gain would make it very difficult for us moving forward.
 

Edited February 14, 2020 by archer21

[soccer.shocker]

T + T x 2. Less points available for us. 

[RS]

3 minutes ago, Unnamed Trialist said:

Sorry, when I said "down there" I meant closer to New Jersey where they are playing their other friendly. 

TFC will have already hosted 2 games at BMO prior to the March match window, so the game could've been played there.

I think it's kinda cool if the game is played at Westhills, though.

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

1 hour ago, archer21 said:

...and ES plays Costa Rica and Panama, we need to obviously...

The whole point of Costa Rica playing us is that their match against El Salvador fell through. I think the leadership is of two minds, the president of FESFUT loves these friendlies in the States but the coach absolutely wants to bring this team to the Hex. Looks like they got scared of losing points and backed out of their friendly with Costa Rica.

So El Salvador plays Panama at home and hopes that home field advantage will give them a win. 4.6 points.

Now Hugo in that article said 7 points.

So @Kyle_The_Hill of the teams that are left, who will El Salvador play to gain 2.4 points? A neighbour like Nicaragua?

El Salvador seems to have finally come to terms with the most logical strategy, that is to play weaker sides to maintain a points gap between themselves and us.

[archer21]

12 minutes ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

The whole point of Costa Rica playing us is that their match against El Salvador fell through. I think the leadership is of two minds, the president of FESFUT loves these friendlies in the States but the coach absolutely wants to bring this team to the Hex. Looks like they got scared of losing points and backed out of their friendly with Costa Rica.

So El Salvador plays Panama at home and hopes that home field advantage will give them a win. 4.6 points.

Now Hugo in that article said 7 points.

So @Kyle_The_Hill of the teams that are left, who will El Salvador play to gain 2.4 points? A neighbour like Nicaragua?

El Salvador seems to have finally come to terms with the most logical strategy, that is to play weaker sides to maintain a points gap between themselves and us.

Guess I missed that part. You’re right, that strategy for ES is definitely the smartest way to go. Didn’t make sense for them to play teams that they’d likely lose points against. On the bright side, if they do lose those matches, they’ll lose more points for it. 

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

11 hours ago, archer21 said:

You’re right, that strategy for ES is definitely the smartest way to go. Didn’t make sense for them to play teams that they’d likely lose points against.

Just found a new article that confirms this theory!

http://www.laprensagrafica.com/deportes/La-seleccion-tiene-su-calculadora-lista-para-las-fechas-FIFA-20200213-0049.html

Looks like El Savador's U-20 coach (and assistant to their senior team) Ernesto Góchez spoke about their strategy on a radio program.

4 games. (2 in March, 2 in June)

An average of 4 points per game is what they are looking for. 16 points total. The idea being that whatever happens, we cannot possibly gain 30 to 31 points before mid-July. Hugo Carillo spoke of 7 points for the next window, so they may even be going for opponents that will give them about 3.5 points per game.

So they could be looking at the Trinidad and Tobago's, the St Kitts and Nevis'es, the Antigua and Barbuda's of the world / CONCACAF.

Maybe Nicaragua or Suriname could be one of their opponents.

So we pray that we can beat our opponents and that they will drop points to a weaker side.

Edited February 14, 2020 by Olympique_de_Marseille

[shamrock]

Unfortunately, they are not idiots.

But is this doing math and strategically planning opponents really how we want a qualification for the WC?

Pretty lame CONCACAF.

[archer21]

8 hours ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

Just found a new article that confirms this theory!

http://www.laprensagrafica.com/deportes/La-seleccion-tiene-su-calculadora-lista-para-las-fechas-FIFA-20200213-0049.html

Looks like El Savador's U-20 coach (and assistant to their senior team) Ernesto Góchez spoke about their strategy on a radio program.

4 games. (2 in March, 2 in June)

An average of 4 points per game is what they are looking for. 16 points total. The idea being that whatever happens, we cannot possibly gain 30 to 31 points before mid-July. Hugo Carillo spoke of 7 points for the next window, so they may even be going for opponents that will give them about 3.5 points per game.

So they could be looking at the Trinidad and Tobago's, the St Kitts and Nevis'es, the Antigua and Barbuda's of the world / CONCACAF.

Maybe Nicaragua or Suriname could be one of their opponents.

So we pray that we can 

Honestly, I think the worse team they play the better chance ES makes the Hex. I don’t think they’re good enough to go 4-0 against teams that would get them 4 points. So say they go 2-1-1, they only gain 1 point (-1 for draw, -6 for loss). The odds of them going 4-0 against a team they’d get 3 points from goes way up, which would get them 12 points and make it damn near impossible for us to come back. Or they could draw one of those matches and get 7 points, still making it very difficult for us.

[Floortom]

I’m amazed it took ES this long to realize the optimal strategy. I’m guessing they were balancing that against stronger revenue matches but it’s been painfully obvious since the qualification format was announced that all they have to do is beat a bunch of minnows to hold us off.

[Kyle_The_Hill]

12 hours ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

So @Kyle_The_Hill of the teams that are left, who will El Salvador play to gain 2.4 points? A neighbour like Nicaragua?

[Alex]

1 hour ago, Floortom said:

I’m amazed it took ES this long to realize the optimal strategy. I’m guessing they were balancing that against stronger revenue matches but it’s been painfully obvious since the qualification format was announced that all they have to do is beat a bunch of minnows to hold us off.

Yes, but El Salvador is a team that has recently lost to Bermuda (1-0), Dominican Republic (1-0). They got smashed by an already eliminated Honduras 4-0 at the gold cup and struggled in 3 games versus Montserrat. In 2 games against Montserrat they needed injury time goals to win them. 

[archer21]

3 minutes ago, Kyle_The_Hill said:

Need them to lose to Panama. Even if they beat the minnow, they’ll lose about 3 points.

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

17 hours ago, Kyle_The_Hill said:

I know and it is possible, just seems unlikely. Also:

What would we gain by beating Trinidad and Tobago and then Costa Rica?

Trinidad are going to play two friendlies in March but their opponents have not been announced.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7cqEZHooSCE

Good chance one of those games is us!

[archer21]

2 minutes ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

What would we gain by beating Trinidad and Tobago and then Costa Rica?

Trinidad are going to play two friendlies in March but their opponents have not been announced.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7cqEZHooSCE

Good chance one of those games is us!

Obviously 6 for Costa Rica and about 4 for Trinidad. I’m sure Kyle can give more accurate number but he posted a couple pages back that they’d be 4 points when rounded to the nearest integer.

Edited February 14, 2020 by archer21

[Kyle_The_Hill]

10 minutes ago, Olympique_de_Marseille said:

What would we gain by beating Trinidad and Tobago and then Costa Rica?

Trinidad are going to play two friendlies in March but their opponents have not been announced.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7cqEZHooSCE

Good chance one of those games is us!

Anyone have any more information on the press conference?

[sloth8]

1 hour ago, Kyle_The_Hill said:

Anyone have any more information on the press conference?

I have only seen the Canadian Press article about it: https://www.tsn.ca/canada-soccer-schedules-news-conference-amidst-speculation-of-international-game-1.1442327

Press conference is supposed to be at 11h00 PST/14h00 EST

[xabuep2]

21 hours ago, MtlMario said:

If I'm reading this right....... we also play Greece on March 26. ( playing on Vancouver island)

 The conference will be today in Langford. This may indicate that the friendly match takes place at Westhills Stadium. It was time to use the CPI stadiums. Hopefully they are 2 or 3 friendly matches

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

34 minutes ago, xabuep2 said:

 The conference will be today in Langford. This may indicate that the friendly match takes place at Westhills Stadium. It was time to use the CPI stadiums. Hopefully they are 2 or 3 friendly matches

It will be there. By process of elimination as established in this thread, opponent will be a CONCACAF team.

So 

Costa Rica

Curacao

Haiti

Trinidad

http://www.canadasoccer.com/index.php?t=project&sid=1343

Also possible but highly unlikely are Antigua, Panama or Honduras.

Edited February 14, 2020 by Olympique_de_Marseille

[Strait Red]

[shorty]

Is it two games or just one?  Seeing on Twitter 27th and 31st but can't tell if it's two games in Victoria or just the one on the 27th.  Anybody at the presser?  Ted?

Asking for a few dozen friends.....

[BuzzAndSting]

1 minute ago, shorty said:

Is it two games or just one?  Seeing on Twitter 27th and 31st but can't tell if it's two games in Victoria or just the one on the 27th.  Anybody at the presser?  Ted?

Asking for a few dozen friends.....

It's two games.

 

[Olympique_de_Marseille]

7.5 points or so....that won't be enough!

Here's to hoping for an El Salvador f-up!

Edited February 14, 2020 by Olympique_de_Marseille

[TOCanada115]

So 7.6 if we win both, which will get us half way. But with El Salvador looking to just play minnows outside of Panama, unless Panama beats them in March, we ain’t catching them. 

[Alex]

It says also on the 31st but doesn’t mention that in the article at all but says the camp goes from the 23rd to 31st

[shorty]

@BuzzAndSting

Yeah, thanks, I did see that tweet, but the project ID page on Soccer Canada's website has no info and Canada Soccer's poster only mentions the game on the 27th.  It's a short window to organize folks is all.  We brought 27 over to Vancouver for the French Guiana game, so I'm wondering if we can get a lot more for this game given that it's in town.  Westhills is going to fill up fast, though, I think.

Edited February 14, 2020 by shorty